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September 2013 OBS


wx n of atl

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NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM FRIDAY...

A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX (REMNANT MCV?) DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS
THE NC PIEDMONT...INTERACTING WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AT THE 300K LEVEL WAS ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A BAND OF SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING STRETCHING FROM THE ROXBORO THROUGH RALEIGH INTO THE
GSB-FAY VICINITY. RAINFALL WAS HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED WITH THE RDU
AIRPORT MEASURING JUST UNDER TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH...AND CLAYTON
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
THIS SAME CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS A JETLET CROSSING
CENTRAL VA INTO NE NC INCREASES DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER NEAR TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC SHOULD WANE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL TENTH-QUARTER OF AN INCH MAY OCCUR
THROUGH 2 PM OVER THE NE PIEDMONT INTO THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN.

EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN A BIT ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WHILE AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
RAIN HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 70. WILL LIKELY NEED TO ADJUST MAX TEMPS
DOWN A TAD OVER SECTIONS OF THE NE PIEDMONT INTO THE CENTRAL COASTAL
PLAIN.

ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES THAT SET-UP THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BE A FICUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS PLAN TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE PIEDMONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS FLOW IN THE SFC-850MB LAYER BACKS TO
A SW DIRECTION...INCREASING WAA MAY LEAD TO SOME ENOUGH ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO GENERATE AREAS OF SHOWERS. WILL LIKELY NEED TO ADJUST POPS
UP LATE TONIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY TO SOLID CHANCE (40-50 PERCENT).

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LOL - who woulda thunk it? From RAH this morning

 

 

AND
WHILE WE COULD SEE TRAINING SHOWERS CAUSING LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN
TOTALS... WILL HOLD AMOUNTS DOWN GIVEN THIS VERY REAL POSSIBILITY OF
A "CAROLINA SPLIT" IN THE PRECIP SHIELD... AS THE BETTER DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT (INCLUDING UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE POLAR STREAM
JET) COULD HEAD TO OUR NORTH... WHILE THE BETTER THERMODYNAMICS AND
LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE MAY HOLD JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

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1.1" since yesterday morning. Today including early this morning .9".

 

Those tiny cells of 30-40 dbz rains ahead of the main rainsheild was surprising as well. They really put down some rain

 

Still have light rain and a band of moderate to heavy rain to go before it clears out. Don't think that "carolina split" is going to happen.

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