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Central Pennsylvania Late Summer-Fall 2013


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Anyone know at what temp the mosquito population begins to dwindle rapidly? Does it have to get in the mid 40s for a week or so?

This article states the mosquito activity is highest between air temperatures of 15* - 32* centigrade.  This would translate to 59 to 90 degrees Fahrenheit.

Publication Link:  http://www3.nd.edu/~ematlis/z.stuff/effect_temp_humid_flight_aedes_aegypti.pdf

 

so the tropical disturbance off the coast of Mexico was set at 20% chance of development all day... then suddenly they jumped it to 100% and classified it as Tropical Depression 8... as it is making landfall.... yet again another "huh?" moment this year from the NHC

 The theme for the Atlantic Basin seems to be nothing to something to death within about 72 hours.  

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I have learned that when you have a winter storm with a potent southern jet there are three forecast complications.

 

  1. Numerical models, especially American guidance, forecasting too low of snowfall.  This has been the case in several significant east coast snow events (i.e.:  Blizzard of 1996, PD II, the storms of December 2009 & February 2010).
  2. There is a sharp northern cutoff of snowfall when the antecedent high pressure is observed to be 1035mb or greater.
  3. Mixing of ice pellets can occur further west than progged, especially within 150 miles of the coastline.  This occurred during the President's Day 2003 Storm when locations as far west as Coastesville and Lancaster, PA reported sleet.  In fact, the higher end forecast totals in Philadelphia never materialized because the sleet lasted longer than anticipated and cut down the totals.

 

Two biggest happy busts of my life are:

 

- 1996 blizzard, only forecast for snow in Pittsburgh came from AccuWx. That had a crazy nuts CCB that went all the way into OH (As a met I imagine you'dfind the accumulation map from that fascinating)

 

- PD II...Paul Kocin said no snow north of M/D line 36 hours before the storm, as per US models. Our one local TV met clung to "MAYYYBEE a flurry north of Rt 22" right up until night before and man, did he ever hear about that. UNV got like 15". I worked at AccuWx and JB was going out of his mind over that, lol, he's friends with the guy and he told me they were arguing over the phone about it.

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I am sure after a boring thunderstorm and tropical season winter will just bring more pain to us all... I am cringing already. Avg would be nice but if it is like a 15" or less season I am going to fall into an oblivion. 

 

In other news I am not sure if I ever mentioned but, I have an auto immune disorder called ALPS which stands for Autoimmune Lymphoproliferative syndrome. Makes me get low platelet counts, enlarged lymph nodes and spleen. I have to take medicine everyday for it but, the medicine I had been taking is starting not to work. I might have to get my spleen removed at the end of the semester. Anyone on here ever have their spleen removed or know someone who has?

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In other news, this has been the absolute worst stretch of boring weather I can remember. Nothing to track, no reason to even look at the models. As long as we have 2 6 plus inch storms I will be happy. Those nickel and dimers are the absolute worst.

 

I was just looking at last winters threads lol what a headache. 

 

Yea her and her husband make the trips there when needed. She's coped with it real well and sounds like you are too man!! I agree I will meet anywhere within 3 hours!!

 

I go every 6 months. Ya I think we should all meet in State College or Harrisburg sometime. 

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I'm down for either man! You we're the only one that kept me sane last winter, love your forecasts. Btw, is there any hope for October with the tropics or is this all over before it started?

 

Haha thanks. You a fan of our fb/website? www.facebook.com/hwpcwx or www.hwpcwx.org. Our winter outlook comes out early Oct.

 

As far as tropics things might get busier in the Caribbean/Gulf in the next few weeks. We will see. 

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Releasing winter outlook 1st/2nd week of Oct. Prelim features, slightly above avg Dec temps and Jan temps (0 to +1) and slightly below normal Feb temps (-1 to 0). Snowfall avg and an ice storm or two. This is for central pa, northern pa thinking a bit more snow than avg. We shall see how final outlook comes out. 

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