Eskimo Joe Posted September 6, 2013 Author Share Posted September 6, 2013 Anyone know at what temp the mosquito population begins to dwindle rapidly? Does it have to get in the mid 40s for a week or so? This article states the mosquito activity is highest between air temperatures of 15* - 32* centigrade. This would translate to 59 to 90 degrees Fahrenheit. Publication Link: http://www3.nd.edu/~ematlis/z.stuff/effect_temp_humid_flight_aedes_aegypti.pdf so the tropical disturbance off the coast of Mexico was set at 20% chance of development all day... then suddenly they jumped it to 100% and classified it as Tropical Depression 8... as it is making landfall.... yet again another "huh?" moment this year from the NHC The theme for the Atlantic Basin seems to be nothing to something to death within about 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 It almost feels like it would be chillier tonight than last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 Dt talking about late season heat next week about a 2 day heat wave with temps In the mid 90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 I have learned that when you have a winter storm with a potent southern jet there are three forecast complications. Numerical models, especially American guidance, forecasting too low of snowfall. This has been the case in several significant east coast snow events (i.e.: Blizzard of 1996, PD II, the storms of December 2009 & February 2010). There is a sharp northern cutoff of snowfall when the antecedent high pressure is observed to be 1035mb or greater. Mixing of ice pellets can occur further west than progged, especially within 150 miles of the coastline. This occurred during the President's Day 2003 Storm when locations as far west as Coastesville and Lancaster, PA reported sleet. In fact, the higher end forecast totals in Philadelphia never materialized because the sleet lasted longer than anticipated and cut down the totals. Two biggest happy busts of my life are: - 1996 blizzard, only forecast for snow in Pittsburgh came from AccuWx. That had a crazy nuts CCB that went all the way into OH (As a met I imagine you'dfind the accumulation map from that fascinating) - PD II...Paul Kocin said no snow north of M/D line 36 hours before the storm, as per US models. Our one local TV met clung to "MAYYYBEE a flurry north of Rt 22" right up until night before and man, did he ever hear about that. UNV got like 15". I worked at AccuWx and JB was going out of his mind over that, lol, he's friends with the guy and he told me they were arguing over the phone about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Sounds like 90 might be in the cards Wednesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 I am sure after a boring thunderstorm and tropical season winter will just bring more pain to us all... I am cringing already. Avg would be nice but if it is like a 15" or less season I am going to fall into an oblivion. In other news I am not sure if I ever mentioned but, I have an auto immune disorder called ALPS which stands for Autoimmune Lymphoproliferative syndrome. Makes me get low platelet counts, enlarged lymph nodes and spleen. I have to take medicine everyday for it but, the medicine I had been taking is starting not to work. I might have to get my spleen removed at the end of the semester. Anyone on here ever have their spleen removed or know someone who has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 My sister has dude, sorry to hear about that but she also has ALPs. No biggie, you'll be sore for a few weeks. Overall she was fine and eating and back to normal in about 7 or 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 My sister has dude, sorry to hear about that but she also has ALPs. No biggie, you'll be sore for a few weeks. Overall she was fine and eating and back to normal in about 7 or 8 days. Oh really, that is wild. Not too many people have Alps. Does she go to NIH for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Also we still need to do a forum get together with as many people as possible, when are we ever going to do that. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 In other news, this has been the absolute worst stretch of boring weather I can remember. Nothing to track, no reason to even look at the models. As long as we have 2 6 plus inch storms I will be happy. Those nickel and dimers are the absolute worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Yea her and her husband make the trips there when needed. She's coped with it real well and sounds like you are too man!! I agree I will meet anywhere within 3 hours!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 In other news, this has been the absolute worst stretch of boring weather I can remember. Nothing to track, no reason to even look at the models. As long as we have 2 6 plus inch storms I will be happy. Those nickel and dimers are the absolute worst. I was just looking at last winters threads lol what a headache. Yea her and her husband make the trips there when needed. She's coped with it real well and sounds like you are too man!! I agree I will meet anywhere within 3 hours!! I go every 6 months. Ya I think we should all meet in State College or Harrisburg sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 I'm down for either man! You we're the only one that kept me sane last winter, love your forecasts. Btw, is there any hope for October with the tropics or is this all over before it started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 I'm down for either man! You we're the only one that kept me sane last winter, love your forecasts. Btw, is there any hope for October with the tropics or is this all over before it started? Haha thanks. You a fan of our fb/website? www.facebook.com/hwpcwx or www.hwpcwx.org. Our winter outlook comes out early Oct. As far as tropics things might get busier in the Caribbean/Gulf in the next few weeks. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 90's the next few days.. joy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 9, 2013 Author Share Posted September 9, 2013 90's the next few days.. joy.. Pretty sizeable cool down afterwards. High temps could struggle to reach 70 in some portions of central PA Friday and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Pretty sizeable cool down afterwards. High temps could struggle to reach 70 in some portions of central PA Friday and Saturday. Ya but, still hate the heat. At least it might storm Wed or Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 9, 2013 Author Share Posted September 9, 2013 Ya but, still hate the heat. At least it might storm Wed or Thurs. We really need it along Mason-Dixon...the soybeans are drying out too fast and my garden is just wilting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 We really need it along Mason-Dixon...the soybeans are drying out too fast and my garden is just wilting. Ya it has been too dry. Hopefully we have a good winter. Starting to work on prelim stuff, thinking about avg with maybe a ice storm or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Things sound interesting for our northern neighbors tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Releasing winter outlook 1st/2nd week of Oct. Prelim features, slightly above avg Dec temps and Jan temps (0 to +1) and slightly below normal Feb temps (-1 to 0). Snowfall avg and an ice storm or two. This is for central pa, northern pa thinking a bit more snow than avg. We shall see how final outlook comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Ya but, still hate the heat. At least it might storm Wed or Thurs. I'd think this will be the last real heat wave of the season, thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Memories of last winter. Post Christmas storm Late December Mid-Jan Early March Mid-March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 My memories: Less than 10" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 My memories: Less than 10" snow. Crazy I had like 33". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Yeah, hbg lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 My favorite memory will be the 4-5" that fell on my 21st birthday. Anyway - near 90 tomorrow/Wednesday, but potentially 30s on Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Medicine my doctor gave me was making me see things.. freaking out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Some pictures of me doing my SUTV weather reports. And video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I am banking this storm now. Be ready guys. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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