djr5001 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I saw DT is chirping about a Potential storm I like to check on his posts because he does tend to have good information... but often fails to paint whole picture when it comes to potential events impacting his clients... similar to JB... both know their stuff but only post to support personal agendas ... this is one of those cases where he goes into detail on the 0z Euro run because it is the only run/only model showing fringe snow potential over a high impact region which includes part of his area of interest - northern VA/DC area. 12z run looks a little south and east (especially with secondary low development) so less of a snow potential once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 i knew that was coming.......i told my co-worker i should have taken them home for my daughter to do. Wow, progressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Wow, progressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I like to check on his posts because he does tend to have good information... but often fails to paint whole picture when it comes to potential events impacting his clients... similar to JB... both know their stuff but only post to support personal agendas ... this is one of those cases where he goes into detail on the 0z Euro run because it is the only run/only model showing fringe snow potential over a high impact region which includes part of his area of interest - northern VA/DC area. 12z run looks a little south and east (especially with secondary low development) so less of a snow potential once again. Rather have it SE now. All other models are NW so idk about the euro on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I like to check on his posts because he does tend to have good information... but often fails to paint whole picture when it comes to potential events impacting his clients... similar to JB... both know their stuff but only post to support personal agendas ... this is one of those cases where he goes into detail on the 0z Euro run because it is the only run/only model showing fringe snow potential over a high impact region which includes part of his area of interest - northern VA/DC area. 12z run looks a little south and east (especially with secondary low development) so less of a snow potential once again. i like to read his posts as well and learned years ago to not take 100% of what his posts say. but a novice like me, i do learn from him. edit- look at at his Wxrisk.com now......"BOOM!!!! full fledge noreaster" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 18Z GFS almost slams us. We are talking a small change in temps being colder 12hrs longer we get s big snow storm. Going to be an interesting few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Teens showing up in the forecast for back home over the Thanksgiving break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 LOL....I just looked this is like a 200 hour out storm we're talking about. I just assume it's not going to snow in November not quite a good month around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 LOL....I just looked this is like a 200 hour out storm we're talking about. I just assume it's not going to snow in November not quite a good month around these parts. There is going to be a storm somewhere. We got a cut off in the flow. Either going to be a cold rain or some snow. Euro ens show bigs snows over pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 There is going to be a storm somewhere. We got a cut off in the flow. Either going to be a cold rain or some snow. Euro ens show bigs snows over pa. Awesome I will take either!!! I just hate misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Did DT just issue his first ALEET of the season? ** ALERT *** 0Z WED GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST LOW FOR NOV 27-28 COMING UP FROM GA The 0z WED GFS has moved STRONGLY towards the 12z Tuesday Midday CANADIAN & EUROPEAN Models The 0Z GFS here early on Wednesday morning has turned sharply towards the bigger coastal system which are showing up on the Canadian model and the European models at Midday on Tuesday. This is a significant step towards one solution because now all the models are showing essentially the same sort of thing.*The 0Z GFS 12z TUESDAY Canadian and European models all now show this *A well organized but not enormous area of Low pressure that comes up from Georgia and moves off the Eastern North Carolina Coast. *The Low appears to be fairly strong but not intensely so... *There may be enough cold air to work with to produce accumulating snow in the mountains of the Middle Atlantic and interior New England. * A cold rain event NOV 27 that ends on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning / Thanksgiving . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 One of the things I think will be the theme of the winter is model mayhem. Best to keep an even keel and not get too enthused or too down on progged systems. I like your approach here; noting the threat but noting the uncertainty. We have a very unusual setup for this winter. Reading here and at PhillyWx, just seeing a lot of talk about how complicated everything is. Not a winter for the overly emotional, whether it's on the overoptimistic "OMG epic storm coming" or pessimistic "never gonna see another storm ever ever ever" side. Did DT just issue his first ALEET of the season? When it comes to Day 8 events you couldn't ask for much better agreement between tonights runs of the GFS, Euro, and Canadian. All three have the coastal storm affecting our region in some fashion. Both the Canadian and GFS take a Gulf low up off of the NC Outer Banks coast and stays offshore a bit.. giving the central more of a glancing precip impact and more as you head east into the Sus Valley (p-types probably snow). Euro stays inside, going over the Delmarva peninsula and running the coastline. Temps are marginal in the Sus Valley and there would be some p-type issues there with that solution. QPF looks to suggest a moderate event at the moment. While for tonight it looks great in terms seeing perhaps the first widespread winter event for the season around Thanksgiving Day I expect the usual drama to play out as we move into the mid range. Def think there will be a storm to be reckoned with... my main concern currently is temps and what I have noticed to be a bit of a progressive theme to things so far this month, which could send our prospective storm east or out to sea. I do like seeing that the southern stream is looking to have some activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 25/23 this morning, and it was 24 not too long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 25/23 this morning, and it was 24 not too long ago. i had 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 20, 2013 Author Share Posted November 20, 2013 Partly cloudy and 50 on Thanksgiving...book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Partly cloudy and 50 on Thanksgiving...book it. lol...you troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Joe is wrong ofc. Since I won't be in this part of PA - it clearly means a white thanksgiving! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I agree with Eskimo except closer to 45 ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I don't care what it does, as long as its done by Thursday night or Friday morning, so my annual stringing of the lights and sipping Jim Beam, er i mean egg nog can commence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Next week appears to be an interesting set-up for some folks in this thread seeing the white stuff fly (more than just LE flakes). NAO is trending negative, as per the GFS and the PNA is trending positive around the time of next week's storm that are on both the Euro and GFS. I wouldn't be surprised if this is an high-elevation/NW of MDT type snowstorm looking at the current ensembles, but we are still a week away and it's tough to count on back-end changeovers to snow on a departing low pressure. It's good to see the northern stream as active as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 20, 2013 Author Share Posted November 20, 2013 In celebration GIS Day: http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/earth/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 12z GFS runs the low north of the Great Lakes to the east faster, not as much ridging, and late interaction with northern stream = not ideal but not terrible because system still there at this range with the GFS Interesting to note that I saw that the UKMET has been scoring slightly better than the GFS in the medium range lately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 12z GFS runs the low north of the Great Lakes to the east faster, not as much ridging, and late interaction with northern stream = not ideal but not terrible because system still there at this range with the GFS Interesting to note that I saw that the UKMET has been scoring slightly better than the GFS in the medium range lately... ENS members are split nearly 50/50. Two of them show us getting bombed. Either way Thanksgiving day is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Liking where we are at this stage. Best sign? The 06z DGEX is a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Thanksgiving, to me, is supposed to be cold and gray. I hate when it is warm on Thanksgiving. Soooo, snow or no snow, the cold will do. Oh, and by "cold", I'd be happy with low 40s or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Thanksgiving, to me, is supposed to be cold and gray. I hate when it is warm on Thanksgiving. Soooo, snow or no snow, the cold will do. Oh, and by "cold", I'd be happy with low 40s or lower. It def looks sufficiently cold for Thanksgiving, model guidance has about all of us below freezing for highs that day and true central PA not getting out of the 20s. On that same note progressive won out today with regards to the possible storm system with all the operational guidance pushing a strung out mess of a system generally east of PA. No surprise to me there, but I'm not ruling anything out at all at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Thanksgiving, to me, is supposed to be cold and gray. I hate when it is warm on Thanksgiving. Soooo, snow or no snow, the cold will do. Oh, and by "cold", I'd be happy with low 40s or lower. Agreed. Sounds like a decent pattern shaping up, despite how it evolves, signs are looking better for a more normalish period coming up. Sure hope so. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Winter is coming in yo. Sunday might not break 30 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 It def looks sufficiently cold for Thanksgiving, model guidance has about all of us below freezing for highs that day and true central PA not getting out of the 20s. On that same note progressive won out today with regards to the possible storm system with all the operational guidance pushing a strung out mess of a system generally east of PA. No surprise to me there, but I'm not ruling anything out at all at this range. I guess it was a bit north on 18Z. Have to say, the pattern continues. There was a lot of talk of a warm second half of November wiping out deficits and causing November to be warm overall. That seems to be out the window. Not including today, UNV is -2.0, MDT is -0.3 and IPT is -0.8. Hard to see much in the way of warmth the rest of the month, I saw elsewhere on AmWx people talking about warm Thanksgivings but that's much less likely right now. Any analog dogs around here might want to think about warm Oct/cold Nov combos. Not sure if this is going to have any influence on our winter but it is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I guess it was a bit north on 18Z. Have to say, the pattern continues. There was a lot of talk of a warm second half of November wiping out deficits and causing November to be warm overall. That seems to be out the window. Not including today, UNV is -2.0, MDT is -0.3 and IPT is -0.8. Hard to see much in the way of warmth the rest of the month, I saw elsewhere on AmWx people talking about warm Thanksgivings but that's much less likely right now. Any analog dogs around here might want to think about warm Oct/cold Nov combos. Not sure if this is going to have any influence on our winter but it is interesting. Given the looks of things next week this could turn into how low does the November departures go before we turn the calendar into December. The weekend cold shot with a 1040+ high and sub 510 thicknesses would do January proud. Could be one of the coldest shots since Thanksgiving 2005 which was November 24th that year... the day after didn't get out of the low-mid 20s and had lows in the single digits/teens. That also featured a few inches of snow Thanksgiving eve preceding the Arctic blast. The cold air blast behind whatever develops for this years Thanksgiving time frame could be comparably cold to the one that we'll be dealing with at the end of the weekend. But we'll see about that one yet as there is a lot of details to resolve with regards to the storm. Would like to see some snowfall delivered out of all this cold air, maybe we could see a bit of snow from the northern branch shortwave that delivers the reinforcing cold if the southern stream wave gets shoved out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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