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Central Pennsylvania Late Summer-Fall 2013


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Pretty good couple of gusts, I'd say we got the 52-56 mph stuff that UNV got. 

 

My grill cover it on my neighbor's roof, against his chimney. He said he'll get it for me today. I forgot to secure it better after using it Saturday. I imagine that thing probably would go pretty far given it's basically a parachute. 

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Reading stuff here and at PhillyWx, looks like a difficult-to-forecast period from this weekend into the first week of Dec. There are some opportunities for interesting weather. At least more precip. We got .64 in Port Matilda with similar numbers at UNV but I know the LSV missed out so more precip is welcome. 

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Models have been zeroing in on another significant cold shot with probable lake effect snows later this weekend and into Thanksgiving week. The coldest of the air looks to ease off some as we get toward Thanksgiving day but there appears to be potential for an event with the models having a southern stream disturbance lurking in the progged split flow regime. Tonights Euro had a near snow event (wave running just to the south for most) while the Canadian had a coastal storm with a probable interior PA event near Thanksgiving Day. Finer details are going to have to wait a good while yet but I would say there is some potential for the first widespread wintry event later next week for C-PA. 

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Models have been zeroing in on another significant cold shot with probable lake effect snows later this weekend and into Thanksgiving week. The coldest of the air looks to ease off some as we get toward Thanksgiving day but there appears to be potential for an event with the models having a southern stream disturbance lurking in the progged split flow regime. Tonights Euro had a near snow event (wave running just to the south for most) while the Canadian had a coastal storm with a probable interior PA event near Thanksgiving Day. Finer details are going to have to wait a good while yet but I would say there is some potential for the first widespread wintry event later next week for C-PA. 

One of the things I think will be the theme of the winter is model mayhem. Best to keep an even keel and not get too enthused or too down on progged systems. I like your approach here; noting the threat but noting the uncertainty.

We have a very unusual setup for this winter. Reading here and at PhillyWx, just seeing a lot of talk about how complicated everything is. 

 

Not a winter for the overly emotional, whether it's on the overoptimistic "OMG epic storm coming" or pessimistic "never gonna see another storm ever ever ever" side. 

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