Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

Central Pennsylvania Late Summer-Fall 2013


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Looking like an eventful severe weekend in the Midwest!

We got this in our HWO:

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT

AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR

STREAMING NORTH INTO THE REGION WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT TO

BRING THE CHANCE FOR A NARROW LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW

THUNDERSTORMS...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40

MPH.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty interesting for severe weather: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

Those of us in true central PA are pretty close to the moderate risk.

 

 

Going to be a wild night I think... Def could be some wind damage.

 

If we have that line of storms with the front to tap what looks to be some pretty ridiculous dynamics and winds aloft I would say it could definitely be a pretty significant severe event wind wise, especially in the western half of PA. Pittsburgh or some locale in that general area always seems to register a crazy wind gust in this type of event. Pretty high confidence in seeing this line come to fruition and having it press through PA, the question will be how well it holds together as it gets across the Alleghenies and into central/eastern PA. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If we have that line of storms with the front to tap what looks to be some pretty ridiculous dynamics and winds aloft I would say it could definitely be a pretty significant severe event wind wise, especially in the western half of PA. Pittsburgh or some locale in that general area always seems to register a crazy wind gust in this type of event. Pretty high confidence in seeing this line come to fruition and having it press through PA, the question will be how well it holds together as it gets across the Alleghenies and into central/eastern PA. 

Anything you are seeing based on how it's playing out in IN/OH? Thoughts change at all?

 

The weather has gone from yawn to interesting. Next two weeks look chilly and maybe stormy. no clue on whether that means snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NWS says it's going to weaken by the time it reaches Central PA.

Yeah, this is what they have:

 

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY

RACE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE WEE HOURS OF

MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL AS USUAL BE LIMITED...BUT SHEAR

IS EXTREMELY STRONG. WHILE THE 15Z HRRR AND LATEST WRF RUNS

INDICATE A WEAKENING TREND AS THE LINE MOVES OUR WAY...IT STILL

LOOKS GOOD FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF

THE COLD FRONT.

BEST TIME FRAME FOR THE WORST OF THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE

ABOUT 03-09Z WHEN THE BIGGEST PWATS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS SURGE

THROUGH THE AREA. 850 WINDS ARE PROGGED IN THE 50-70KT

RANGE...SOME 3-4STD ABOVE NORMAL. WE EXPECT THE LINE TO BRING

BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND THE INITIAL BLAST OF STRONG AND POSSIBLY

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THEN OVERALL GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD KICK IN

AND GUST IN THE 25-45MPH RANGE FOR A TIME. SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL

MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG ISSALOBARIC SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT

SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS...AT LEAST

THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD THEN

SHIFT OFF TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN

ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anything you are seeing based on how it's playing out in IN/OH? Thoughts change at all?

 

The weather has gone from yawn to interesting. Next two weeks look chilly and maybe stormy. no clue on whether that means snow.

 

Nah my thoughts are pretty much the same, we'll def be seeing the line of storms going through PA and we'll see how well it holds and what winds it taps down. Best chances for ridiculous winds I still think will be in the western half of the state and probably more specifically from the Laurel's westward. CTP had mentioned this morning they will likely be utilizing severe warnings with the frontal passage and I expect it will likely be warned most of the way across the state when it comes through overnight. Should be interesting to watch, this has been quite a storm system. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just went to warning.

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CAMERON COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
EASTERN CLEARFIELD COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
POTTER COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
TIOGA COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
CENTRE COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN LYCOMING COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
CLINTON COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 1230 AM EST

* AT 1130 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM
OSWAYO TO AUSTIN TO WOODLAND TO HOUTZDALE TO ASHVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...