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Central Pennsylvania Late Summer-Fall 2013

Eskimo Joe

By Eskimo Joe,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

Here is the analog through the last week of November. 

 

1395152_537246173026666_311469908_n.png

 

On the bright side long range breaks this down and has it rurally cold and maybe snowy for the start of December.

 

That's a great snapshot of the mixed signals we have going forward with the coming winter. Look at the years on that analog... 2003-2004 was one of our snowiest and cold winters of recent note. 94/95 was one of the most horrendous. Actually it was Harrisburg's MOST horrendous, beating out 01-02 and 11-12. They had 9 inches of snow that winter.

 

post-1507-0-04999500-1383595550_thumb.gi

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

That's a great snapshot of the mixed signals we have going forward with the coming winter. Look at the years on that analog... 2003-2004 was one of our snowiest and cold winters of recent note. 94/95 was one of the most horrendous. Actually it was Harrisburg's MOST horrendous, beating out 01-02 and 11-12. They had 9 inches of snow that winter.

 

attachicon.gifHarrisburgSeasonalSnow.gif

 

 

Yup. 

 

Also, you can find UNV and IPT's totals here: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/snowmaps/index.php?tab=norms

 

2003-2004 was crazy. UNV was the jackpot for several storms. 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

19.1 here. Probably going to be the coldest for a while.

 

 

Not going to see many more cold days in Nov. AO going to +3 or +4 and PNA going to -4 or -5. Gross. 

 

While the strongly positive AO regime will keep any kind of significant cold air intrusions bottled up north for the time being, and the overall pattern (forecast -EPO/-PNA/+NAO) is definitely not a favorable one for any kind of early winter events in our neck of the woods... it doesn't really appear that we're going to have any kind of ridiculous warmth either. We'll likely have a day or so midweek of above normal temps prior to the next frontal passage but we look to go back to seasonable weather through Veteran's Day with another weak system looking to reinforce things a bit over the weekend into next week.

 

Largely a progressive zonal looking pattern... More uncertain looking beyond the D6-10 range, of course. That mid month period could be where we see an actual torch if it's going to happen, but teleconnection forecasts (the CPC ones) are starting to show the NAO and AO diving toward the end of the forecast. By the way I should note there's a big difference in the NAO between the CPC site and the ESRL site. ESRL all the way over +2 with the NAO currently, while the CPC site under +1. It's also not quite as extreme with the -PNA but still forecasts a strong one.

 

At any rate, for now it doesn't look like a September in November type weather regime which it seems we've seen quite often the last several years. On the other hand, I don't expect any kind of winter surprises beyond perhaps some post frontal snow showers or something the next couple weeks at least.  I'd be looking towards the end of the month to at least start seeing the signs of an actual winter pattern unfold. I think one should remember late November/early December is about the time such things happen around here anyways. Thanksgiving is about as late as it gets this year (Nov 28th) too, so if we do end up having that pattern change before the end of the month...chances are probably better than usual for having some snow on the ground for Thanksgiving, esp in the usual spots. Too early to be worried, I'll worry more if we're still faced with this kind of pattern going forward a month from now. 

 

Speaking of September in November, we need a title refresh on our thread haha. 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

0Z Euro just threw a WTF curveball. Some massive system retrogrades off the ocean starting at 204 then has a 988 over NY by 234 and it is bitterly cold. 

 

Where in the hell did that come from? I expect these kinds of things from time to time in the GFS long range but the Euro? Drops in and cuts off a nuclear bomb of a 500mb low. Deepens it all the way to 5200m at hour 240 on the Jersey Coast. For this time of the year, that's off the charts anomalous for 500 heights. 

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JamieOber

JamieOber

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While the strongly positive AO regime will keep any kind of significant cold air intrusions bottled up north for the time being, and the overall pattern (forecast -EPO/-PNA/+NAO) is definitely not a favorable one for any kind of early winter events in our neck of the woods... it doesn't really appear that we're going to have any kind of ridiculous warmth either. We'll likely have a day or so midweek of above normal temps prior to the next frontal passage but we look to go back to seasonable weather through Veteran's Day with another weak system looking to reinforce things a bit over the weekend into next week.

 

Largely a progressive zonal looking pattern... More uncertain looking beyond the D6-10 range, of course. That mid month period could be where we see an actual torch if it's going to happen, but teleconnection forecasts (the CPC ones) are starting to show the NAO and AO diving toward the end of the forecast. By the way I should note there's a big difference in the NAO between the CPC site and the ESRL site. ESRL all the way over +2 with the NAO currently, while the CPC site under +1. It's also not quite as extreme with the -PNA but still forecasts a strong one.

 

At any rate, for now it doesn't look like a September in November type weather regime which it seems we've seen quite often the last several years. On the other hand, I don't expect any kind of winter surprises beyond perhaps some post frontal snow showers or something the next couple weeks at least.  I'd be looking towards the end of the month to at least start seeing the signs of an actual winter pattern unfold. I think one should remember late November/early December is about the time such things happen around here anyways. Thanksgiving is about as late as it gets this year (Nov 28th) too, so if we do end up having that pattern change before the end of the month...chances are probably better than usual for having some snow on the ground for Thanksgiving, esp in the usual spots. Too early to be worried, I'll worry more if we're still faced with this kind of pattern going forward a month from now. 

 

Speaking of September in November, we need a title refresh on our thread haha. 

The new Euro on crack notwithstanding, I agree with this. Doesn't look all that torchy.

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PennMan

PennMan

Posted
Posted

Can I post here all winter? I'm close enough to the PA line, right?

 

 

...seriously... please. with sugar on top :)

Sure thing.  :hug:   There won't be much whining going on in here this winter. (yes, that's a warning to all those prone to do so...take it to the banter thread, there will be basically zero tolerance this year)

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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted

Sure thing.  :hug:   There won't be much whining going on in here this winter. (yes, that's a warning to all those prone to do so...take it to the banter thread, there will be basically zero tolerance this year)

The key to not whining is not having expectations. I don't I see 12" snow this year and I'm content as a clam with whatever happens (save for ice storms, I want nothing to do with ice).

 

mapgirl, welcome! You'll find this thread to be one of the friendliest of them all.

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mappy

mappy

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Posted

Sure thing.  :hug:   There won't be much whining going on in here this winter. (yes, that's a warning to all those prone to do so...take it to the banter thread, there will be basically zero tolerance this year)

 

Thanks Jeff! I'll probably skim both -- though, being the only one who lives so far north in the MA forum... I may make people jealous down there ;)

 

 

I won't whine, I promise

 

EJ -- I'll try to bring luck :hug:

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
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The key to not whining is not having expectations. I don't I see 12" snow this year and I'm content as a clam with whatever happens (save for ice storms, I want nothing to do with ice).

 

mapgirl, welcome! You'll find this thread to be one of the friendliest of them all.

Keep your expectations tiny, that way you won't be so whiny, that's my motto.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted

Bring on the ice storms...I want 2" of crystallized heaven!

Your whacked pal...:)

 

Its been a while for me, but its time to get back into action. Welcome Mapgirl and may you bring all of us a little luck in the snow department this year.  WMSPTWX needs lots of love from the snow gods as he's been in the jipzone and lets hope this year delivers regionwide.  Looking forward to it gang.  

Had some snow flurries at the cabin Sunday morning.  Like every year, I appreciate the first flakes of the season.

 

Nut

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PennMan

PennMan

Posted
Posted

Lol I kinda want an ice storm too, except one where it's getting colder after instead of the drippy messes were used to.

The December 2007 ice storms in Lebanon County were like that...ice held on some trees for a solid week.  Beautiful in the sunshine. I'm ok with a few tenths of an inch of ice, after that I want no part of it.

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Santa Clause

Santa Clause

Posted
Posted

Your whacked pal...:)

Its been a while for me, but its time to get back into action. Welcome Mapgirl and may you bring all of us a little luck in the snow department this year. WMSPTWX needs lots of love from the snow gods as he's been in the jipzone and lets hope this year delivers regionwide. Looking forward to it gang.

Had some snow flurries at the cabin Sunday morning. Like every year, I appreciate the first flakes of the season.

Nut

Thanks pa, but last year LSV had jipzone honors. We just usually don't get home run hitters up yonder.

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EasternUSWX

EasternUSWX

Posted
Posted

Thanks Jeff! I'll probably skim both -- though, being the only one who lives so far north in the MA forum... I may make people jealous down there ;)

 

 

I won't whine, I promise

 

EJ -- I'll try to bring luck :hug:

 

Yay mapgirl! 

 

I post in the MA forum too cause I live basically right on the boarder. I usually get chewed out by wxtrix though. lol. 

 

Welcome. 

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