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Central Pennsylvania Late Summer-Fall 2013


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Snow/rain showers and snow showers in the Port Matilda forecast through Thursday night, best chance Thursday night. Not big chances, 30% Thursday night but this sort of pattern usually gives us our first flakes. Might be a dusting five miles up the road on Flat Rock, about 2200'. 

 

Probably will look like a blizzard on the 511 Traffic cams up on 22 west of Altoona, per usual  :ee:

our news reported flurries now in Johnestown

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our news reported flurries now in Johnestown

I was in a meeting so didn't have time to post this but just a bit ago, definite snowflakes on the 511PA cam, the ones west of Altoona: http://www.511pa.com/Traffic.aspx

 

I imagine you check radar and if there is anything there on radar probably worth a look from time to time from now until Thursday eve. 

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Looking down the road - I notice two recurving Typhoons (both at one time are/were Super Typhoon strength) in the W PAC region. Euro 12z Op at Hr240 shows the potential for a southern stream shortwave to have a "chance" to make an east coast appearance. Maybe not another Halloween storm but maybe an All Saints Day (eve?) situation to watch.

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Would like someone on campus to verify but it definitely seems as though we just had our first flakes.

 

We had our first frozen precip anyway...though 99% will say it was snow, it was graupel.

 

Still, the State College frozen precip in October trend continues!

Have less than an inch forecasted for Port Matilda tonight/early tomorrow. 

 

It UNV gets a trace that will make 7 of the last 10 Octobers with at least a trace. 

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Have less than an inch forecasted for Port Matilda tonight/early tomorrow. 

 

It UNV gets a trace that will make 7 of the last 10 Octobers with at least a trace. 

 

Overnight is probably gonna be the best shot at seeing the trace in UNV if it's going to happen. Passage of a weak disturbance is going to get the bands of snow showers going as the evening wears on. CTP has a pretty good discussion on this, mentioning the subtle wind shift (about 40 degrees) will establish a Huron connection. NW PA looks to see a rather significant early season event out of this, with LES warnings up in Erie and Crawford county and advisories further southeast. 

 

Should be interesting to watch unfold this evening. With the aformentioned Huron connection as well as favorable snow growth and pretty steep lapse rates, we could see some local surprises in the Laurels and Central mountains. By surprises I mean advisory level snow somewhere in the Laurels and/or up to an inch or so in the Central NW of I-99 if we end up with a band of snow that overachieves. 

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Although I did see graupel on the Penn State campus, I also saw precipitation that was unmistakably snow in a couple of squalls between 1 and 2:30 PM.  Also saw the CTP AFD referenced -- it'll be interesting to see if that Huron LES connection can be realized and if/to what extent State College might benefit from it.  

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First sub 30 morning here this AM, when it dipped down to 29 degrees. As for snow, I didn't see any, but my neighbor said if flurried sometime around 5:00PM here in town. The hills outside of Mahanoy City did see a nice squall, though, as this pic that a friend of mine took will show.

 

post-317-0-49196000-1382654711_thumb.jpg

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