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Central Pennsylvania Late Summer-Fall 2013


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It is indeed tantilizing to see such. A favorable patttern in the short term, but I feel this is transient at best.

 

This cold pattern setting up definitely doesn't look to be of the transient variety, or at least one where we have a two day cold shot and its back to normal or above normal. This is looking more like at least a several day thing if not a week or so. With that said, while this may or may not end up being something that perhaps sets the tone on what we could expect when we get into actual winter... I'd rather see this developing late Nov going into December over now going into November.  

 

As for sensible weather with this upcoming unsettled pattern, I'd say it's about a given as it looks right now that portions of northern PA and probably down into the Laurels are going to see some flakes by late next week, with a decent chance of some snow mixing in just off the mountains in true central PA. And I'm impressed with how much the models sustain a very cold NW to WNW flow considering the time of the year. Both the GFS and Euro keep 850 temps under -5ºC for a good stretch in western Penn heading from Thursday into the weekend behind the potential developing coastal storm. CTP keeping on the down low for LES snow potential for the time being as this is still 5+ days away. But I wouldn't be surprised if the NW snow belt locations down into the Laurels (depending on flow) ended up with a decent early season LES/orographic event. Temps during the daytime could temper that threat, but I don't think it's unreasonable to think that folks with good elevation could end up with a few inches of snow. It would be picking up right where things left off this spring with portions the Laurels sustaining a snowpack right into the beginning of April off an epic run of winter weather up there in March. 

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Look what popped up in my forecast for Wednesday...

721 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013PAZ058-221130-SCHUYLKILL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...POTTSVILLE.WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THENRAIN AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONPOSSIBLE. COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND5 MPH...BECOMING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION70 PERCENT. 
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Look what popped up in my forecast for Wednesday...

721 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013

PAZ058-221130-

SCHUYLKILL-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...POTTSVILLE

.WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN

RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION

POSSIBLE. COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND

5 MPH...BECOMING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

70 PERCENT.

Well, here we go folks.

Prepare for another season of heartache.

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Look what popped up in my forecast for Wednesday...

721 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013PAZ058-221130-SCHUYLKILL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...POTTSVILLE.WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THENRAIN AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONPOSSIBLE. COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND5 MPH...BECOMING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION70 PERCENT. 

 

 

Well, that disappeared as fast as it appeared... :lol:

.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLERWITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMINGWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
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Well, that disappeared as fast as it appeared... :lol:

.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLERWITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMINGWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 

That was odd they even had it in there. I don't see any indication that anyone outside of the snowbelt areas would see accumulation. 

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Snow/rain showers and snow showers in the Port Matilda forecast through Thursday night, best chance Thursday night. Not big chances, 30% Thursday night but this sort of pattern usually gives us our first flakes. Might be a dusting five miles up the road on Flat Rock, about 2200'. 

 

Probably will look like a blizzard on the 511 Traffic cams up on 22 west of Altoona, per usual  :ee:

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