The Pattern Ahead

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

I need one more moderate to strong snowstorm before I go to San Antonio, TX for USAF basic training. Just one more big event and I will be looking forward to basic training in San Antonio, TX. This past weekend storm did nothing to help me with that situation. Not too excited before the 10th of January. No sign of a +PNA cuts down our clipper amplification possibilities, and lack of extreme cold or arctic rooted air masses puts the coastline in almost complete jeopardy. I am just not excited.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Your sig is different, didn't you get two four inchers. I remember being amazed you telling me you got eight last week. Dude you have been ground zero, what is your depth?

8 to 10 left. Its compacted down due to how dense it is. There was only like an inch left of the 2nd bout of wrap around snows. The first completely melted.

[Damage In Tolland]

Any hints of something to track in the next 8-10 days..Anything at all?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Any hints of something to track in the next 8-10 days..Anything at all?

Snowmelt.

[Damage In Tolland]

Snowmelt.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yes I am.

[radarman]

Crazy -AO on the Day 10 ECM:

In the next 48 hours a major low pressure system drops into central russia, and tracks across the Asian continent until it stalls in Northern China by that day 10 frame you posted.

Extrapolating forward a couple days would probably bring up another significant Kamchatkan ridge, adding heat to an already warm north pole, due to the day 6-10 greenland ridging.

Verbatim, by middle of the month AO might tank completely again. I know this possibility has been mentioned by the mets and honorary mets.

[ORH_wxman]

Any hints of something to track in the next 8-10 days..Anything at all?

Yeah at the end of that time frame perhaps. Probably Jan 5-7 time frame we could have something. So you have plenty of time to catch up on sleep for New Years celebrations and not have to worry about missing storm threat discussion.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah at the end of that time frame perhaps. Probably Jan 5-7 time frame we could have something. So you have plenty of time to catch up on sleep for New Years celebrations and not have to worry about missing storm threat discussion.

I really don't miss much. There's only 3-4 of you guys that stay up all night discussing things..Easy to catch up with the next morning

[ski MRG]

I really don't miss much. There's only 3-4 of you guys that stay up all night discussing things..Easy to catch up with the next morning

If there is something interesting going on I seem to automatically wake up around 2am to check out the night owls disco about the 00z suite. In more benign stretches I'll just catch up around 5am. I think it's funny that Will knows he's been up to late if he sees any of the morning crew showing up.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah at the end of that time frame perhaps. Probably Jan 5-7 time frame we could have something.

As we thought, it's all in sync, man I am getting excited, wow wow for the pattern to evolve.

[Ice Warrior commander]

Here is another look at the severe Blowing Snow yesterday in Central Mass. ORH gusting to 58mph when i took this .

14" new

[HoarfrostHubb]

I would not be terribly surprised to see some sneaky little event happen early next week, when we are all napping. But for now, let's just enjoy the snow we got.

[weathafella]

I think it depends where the trough sets up. If it sets up like right on the PAC coast or just offshore for a bit, then you can get storms riding up north of the rockies and a little downstream ridge forms in that area...then get the systems diving SE again through the lakes. If the trough is a little further inland, its probably more OH Valley runners and SWFEs.

Or even if the flow goes a bit more zonal for a bit, then clippers can become more numerous.

Here's an example of a setup from Dec 31, 2008....the trough was a bit offshore with the GOA low...so we saw a little downstream ridge...if you remember, that was a nice clipper redeveloper event....almost a mini-Miller B.

That was a nice event....pretty heavy snow for about 6-8 hours with a general 6-8 inch dump. But as I recall it was not too far from going nuke on us. That's why it's so hard to know the specifics. I like gradient patterns. Overrunning several inches of snow chances at least once a week works well for me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That was a nice event....pretty heavy snow for about 6-8 hours with a general 6-8 inch dump. But as I recall it was not too far from going nuke on us. That's why it's so hard to know the specifics. I like gradient patterns. Overrunning several inches of snow chances at least once a week works well for me.

93-94 fetish rearing it's head again lol.

I think that theNAM actually did have that one going nuke on us for a couple of runs pretty close in .

[40/70 Benchmark]

Will, I text Kev today that I felt this season maybe taking on a bit of a 2004-05, sifted a bit to the nw type of appeal....what do you think....

One of the obvious problems with that analogy is that that this past system was of a Miller A classification and 04-05 would have none of that, but on an entirely anecdotal level, one could argue that tremendous blocking and a potent negative enso event could possibly produce the said result.

Obviously watered down, somewhat in all likelihood.

This winter will be remembered for a long time when all is said and done and I have always been confident of that.

[weathafella]

93-94 fetish rearing it's head again lol.

I think that theNAM actually did have that one going nuke on us for a couple of runs pretty close in .

I'll take it to my grave. This KU kiboshed any chance of me going to Chicago this week which in the long run freed up some time already penciled in as leave. Today I was in the woods...deep snow, bright sun, reasonably comfortable winter temps...perfect.!

[HoarfrostHubb]

Ginx, Pete, Jerry ... make room for Ray

[weathafella]

Will, I text Kev today that I felt this season maybe taking on a bit of a 2004-05, sifted a bit to the nw type of appeal....what do you think....

One of the obvious problems with that analogy is that that this past system was of a Miller A classification and 04-05 would have none of that, but on an entirely anecdotal level, one could argue that tremendous blocking and a potent negative enso event could possibly produce the said result.

Obviously watered down, somewhat in all likelihood.

This winter will be remembered for a long time when all is said and done and I have always been confident of that.

I've also thought this but figured it was my own weenie goggles. Maybe its both of ours...lol. But it DOES have the feel kind of. This last storm was a combination 12/26/04 and 1/22/05. Obviously not as robust as 1/22 but that feel albeit different evolution.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ginx, Pete, Jerry ... make room for Ray

I missed something.

[OKpowdah]

I would not be terribly surprised to see some sneaky little event happen early next week, when we are all napping. But for now, let's just enjoy the snow we got.

Agreed. Starting next week we have a good set up for nickel and dime events. I could see maybe something bigger around January 9-10-ish, but otherwise, I'm looking forward to some nice quick moving 3-6" deals

[HoarfrostHubb]

I missed something.

3 gents banging the drum for La Epic since... well June 1??? Now you mention 2004-2005...

They have been keepers of the Circle of Trust

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 gents banging the drum for La Epic since... well June 1??? Now you mention 2004-2005...

They have been keepers of the Circle of Trust

Ah......I don't think that I'm going to get 107.5" of snow, but 90" wouldn't shock me.

[weathafella]

Ah......I don't think that I'm going to get 107.5" of snow, but 90" wouldn't shock me.

I'm getting hungry....

[OKpowdah]

Ah......I don't think that I'm going to get 107.5" of snow, but 90" wouldn't shock me.

75" over the next three months?

Let's see...

8" through Jan 12th

torch

15" with a big event at the end of January

8" beginning of February

12" middle

5" end

20" with our March HECS

7" through the end of the month

Sounds 'bout right

[40/70 Benchmark]

75" over the next three months?

Let's see...

8" through Jan 12th

torch

15" with a big event at the end of January

8" beginning of February

12" middle

5" end

20" with our March HECS

7" through the end of the month

Sounds 'bout right

My actual call is in the 70's I think, but I was just saying that 90" wouldn't suprise me.

[Logan11]

Well I just looked at the GFS and it rebuilds a lot of strong negative NAO with the old low back off Newfie. It looks really boring actually with that rather crushing -NAO in that position, but maybe it could relax enough for a southwest flow event that wouldn't get crushed. That assumes we have any southern stream to work with to supply a sw flow event I guess.

My actual call is in the 70's I think, but I was just saying that 90" wouldn't suprise me.

[Logan11]

Well I just looked at the GFS and it rebuilds a lot of strong negative NAO with the old low back off Newfie. It looks really boring actually with that rather crushing -NAO in that position, but maybe it could relax enough for a southwest flow event that wouldn't get crushed. That assumes we have any southern stream to work with to supply a sw flow event I guess. The block retrogrades west somewhat as time progresses.

My actual call is in the 70's I think, but I was just saying that 90" wouldn't suprise me.

[Damage In Tolland]

75" over the next three months?

Let's see...

8" through Jan 12th

torch

15" with a big event at the end of January

8" beginning of February

12" middle

5" end

20" with our March HECS

7" through the end of the month

Sounds 'bout right

The January torch idea isn't gonna work..Time to change your Jan forecast

[Damage In Tolland]

Here's our next threat. Until then yawnage an a few days of heavy heavy meltage

The January 5 - 10 period is beginning to become of interest. As Tony pointed out, the GWO is potentially favorable as well as the MJO which may do another quick pulse around the ph. 6-7-8 octants again (low frequency).

The question is...does the state of the PNA keep this thing more a Miller B / inland jumper or will the NAO become very assertive ensuring a more typical coastal track?

I think the mid January idea of East Coast mischief is looking good. New 00z ECMWF seems like to like an inland track/jumper scenario Jan 5-10 which ultimately looks to become another 50-50 as a Greenland ridge goes up. Should this occur, mid January could offer some interesting possibilities. Anyone worried about ice with this setup on Jan 5-10?