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The Pattern Ahead

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

Looks warm, I don't like the next two weeks for any potential snow. I am leaving for San Antonio, TX in two weeks from today. I think I have seen the last of the snow for a while.

and i'm leavin for orlando this friday to be back monday.....then it can snow again...and u can be damn sure i wouldn't have gone if there was a real shot of snow.

AS far as the over running / SW Flow events i think this year that central new england and NNE really cash on these...where SNE has a higher shot of snow to rain. or just rain....esp s. of route 2. we shall see.

i picture concord,nh 34 and SN while Bos is 42 RN and ORH is 37 RN.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Posted

Seems to me like the first week of January could be very snowy for New England. SWF and Miller B potential

edit: and by first week, I meant first full week, centered around the 4th through the 8th.

Yeah I like the pattern after the torch clears out of here around Jan 2-3. Should have some shots. That's all we can really ask for at this point.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Yeah I like the pattern after the torch clears out of here around Jan 2-3. Should have some shots. That's all we can really ask for at this point.

Strongly agree, both the GFS and ECM are building in strong positive high anomalies to Greenland/Baffin Island again with the resurgence of a -NAO on the Atlantic side. Pacific doesn't look too worrying as we appear to have a semblance of a -EPO with a low cutting through the Aleutians/W AK. 18z GFS shows a parade of SW flow events and redevelopers which can be favorable for our region, even down to here, as we get into the coldest parts of the winter. The blocking just seems to want to keep going despite whatever La Niña is doing, just an incredible streak of NAO blocking these days.

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

regarding the "torch"

i have P&C Highs in the low 40's 41-43.....fri-sun. that's like 5 above average.

so why is this a torch.

kev's point and click for his "torch" is

38/40/41

so is this just a case of having a lack of a better catchy phrase......i.e slightly above normal period./

either way i'll be in orlando fr nite- mon am. hopefully just in time to return for mo' snow

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Doesn't sound too torchy up here...

I'd have to say the low Tuesday night/Wed am will certainly be below 10 above with clear skies and dimishing wind and a snowcover. I'd think we'd go below zero but we'll see.

NHZ006>009-281330-

SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOLFEBORO...OSSIPEE...CLAREMONT...

NEWPORT...CHARLESTOWN...CONCORD...HOOKSETT...LACONIA...MEREDITH

622 PM EST MON DEC 27 2010

.OVERNIGHT...BLOWING SNOW EARLY. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A

CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING. LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO.

NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF

SNOW 50 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 15 BELOW.

.TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH

WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 15 BELOW IN THE

MORNING.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY

CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE

EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND

10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 14. LIGHT AND VARIABLE

WINDS.

.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LOWS

10 TO 15.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20.

.NEW YEARS DAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY

CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 40.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 20. HIGHS IN

THE LOWER 30S.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

GFS has been consistently showing a modest cold front after the lakes cutter with 850s dropping to around -8C/-9C...there is a small overrunning modeled around Day 8 but so far most solutions have been suppressed. Serious cold arrives in the LR, and every run has shown the AK block developing and bringing very cold temperatures into the CONUS:

cold.gif

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

GFS has been consistently showing a modest cold front after the lakes cutter with 850s dropping to around -8C/-9C...there is a small overrunning modeled around Day 8 but so far most solutions have been suppressed. Serious cold arrives in the LR, and every run has shown the AK block developing and bringing very cold temperatures into the CONUS:

cold.gif

Yeah. Signal is for cold to come in stronger closer to mid month vs next week. LR models tend to rush it so I think mid month is a reasonable target date. The evolution of the pattern 1/15-2/15 will give us the clue whether this winter rocks or is garden variety good or just ok.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Yeah. Signal is for cold to come in stronger closer to mid month vs next week. LR models tend to rush it so I think mid month is a reasonable target date. The evolution of the pattern 1/15-2/15 will give us the clue whether this winter rocks or is garden variety good or just ok.

I think we'll still be slightly below average in temperatures behind the cutter; the ECM has trended colder with the airmass in the Plains and now has -26C 850s over South Dakota behind the storm system. We see a strong signal on the GFS/ECM for a continuing -NAO block, as well as the potential for a block forming in the longer range over western AK that brings very cold air into Canada and eventually the CONUS. There is an overrunning threat at Day 8 on the GFS and then the weather turns plenty cold for more snow opportunities if we aren't trapped in a bitter, dry NW flow.

I believe Boston is going to be fine this winter, not a blockbuster year unless we get a March monster but I'm thinking you'll see 40-50" of snow with temperatures well below average. The greatest negative temperature departures and positive snowfall anomalies are probably going to be in the Mid-Atlantic, quite unusual for a strong La Niña that is still intensifying. I've honestly never seen a strong La Niña winter like this as this cold season bears no resemblance to 07-08, 99-00, or 98-99. Now we have a stratospheric warming happening and a potential for a very cold January in all the East...weird stuff but I'll enjoy it and the 12" snowpack outside my window Snowman.gifthumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

I think we'll still be slightly below average in temperatures behind the cutter; the ECM has trended colder with the airmass in the Plains and now has -26C 850s over South Dakota behind the storm system. We see a strong signal on the GFS/ECM for a continuing -NAO block, as well as the potential for a block forming in the longer range over western AK that brings very cold air into Canada and eventually the CONUS. There is an overrunning threat at Day 8 on the GFS and then the weather turns plenty cold for more snow opportunities if we aren't trapped in a bitter, dry NW flow.

I believe Boston is going to be fine this winter, not a blockbuster year unless we get a March monster but I'm thinking you'll see 40-50" of snow with temperatures well below average. The greatest negative temperature departures and positive snowfall anomalies are probably going to be in the Mid-Atlantic, quite unusual for a strong La Niña that is still intensifying. I've honestly never seen a strong La Niña winter like this as this cold season bears no resemblance to 07-08, 99-00, or 98-99. Now we have a stratospheric warming happening and a potential for a very cold January in all the East...weird stuff but I'll enjoy it and the 12" snowpack outside my window Snowman.gifthumbsupsmileyanim.gif

Halfway there......3 legit full snow months to go.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

GFS getting warmer next weekend AWT. Not loking forward to this snow eating torch..but what can we do?

Maybe still a SWFE day 9-10 on Euro?

You're overplaying the "torch" . A few days with a couple hours above freezing each day isn't going to do much. Cloud cover and the relatively short length of days/low sun angle will also mitigate. Why focus on it, more snow will be here soon.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

You're overplaying the "torch" . A few days with a couple hours above freezing each day isn't going to do much. Cloud cover and the relatively short length of days/low sun angle will also mitigate. Why focus on it, more snow will be here soon.

Yeah, I live in NYC metro and I'm not even worried about this, Pete. NWS calling for a high of 44F here Sunday immediately before the cold front comes through, that's not too bad and won't destruct a foot of snowpack. I'm at 350' within the urban heat island, and you guys are up above 1000' so you'd be lucky to break 40F if the GFS and NWS are correct. We go right back into the freezer on the 6z GFS again with 850s dropping to <-10C in SNE and a strong high pressure over us for good radiating conditions at night. There look to be several storm threats in the long range as blocking continues. You know when Zuckertubesocks is optimistic, it's time to stop worrying.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Yeah, I live in NYC metro and I'm not even worried about this, Pete. NWS calling for a high of 44F here Sunday immediately before the cold front comes through, that's not too bad and won't destruct a foot of snowpack. We go right back into the freezer on the 6z GFS again with 850s dropping to <-10C in SNE and a strong high pressure over us for good radiating conditions at night. There look to be several storm threats in the long range as blocking continues. You know when Zuckertubesocks is optimistic, it's time to stop worrying.

I was thinking the opposite.lol Hope you're well Nate. My Mom lives north of you a couple hours in Columbia County, NY. She got 20+" of snow from this last storm, I would have thought Dobbs Ferry would have gotten a similar amount. Only 12" there? Still, nice to get snow whatever the amount.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

[/b]

I was thinking the opposite.lol Hope you're well Nate. My Mom lives north of you a couple hours in Columbia County, NY. She got 20+" of snow from this last storm, I would have thought Dobbs Ferry would have gotten a similar amount. Only 12" there? Still, nice to get snow whatever the amount.

Thanks for the kind words...I was pretty bullish on this storm in the LR and am glad it delivered for most of SNE and NYC metro. I had 13" here as we were a bit removed from the heaviest banding in Westchester, which set up basically from Newark Airport into Duchess County/Columbia County. Some parts of NJ had 25-30" which simply amazes me. I was still pretty happy though as we had a wind gust to 64mph and I went for a long walk at the height of the storm, barely able to see in front of me due to sheets of heavy snow whirling around. Temperatures fell to 17.5F in heavy snow, so this was a very cold storm for NYC metro, especially considering December climo.

I think the pattern honestly looks fine for January. I originally had DCA-NYC above average in temperatures for January in my winter forecast, but I'm starting to rethink that. Although there will be a gradient initially with a flat ridge over the SE, the -NAO keeps New England and NYC metro colder than average. We should have a small chance of snow with an overrunning event moving through VA/NC at Day 8, and then temperatures could turn quite bitter as we get into the heart of winter and more chances for snow.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Has anybody heard from MPM? Haven't seen a post from him since prior to the storm. Hope he is still not without power. We need to get him back online quickly, it's just not the same without him worrying about QPF.

Lol--I'm here. Was out all day yesterday, reseting up for the next event. Looks like I get to rest for a while! lol

I said earlier that you can bank on a huge event around January 17-19. I'm going to be in Jamaice then. There is a huge analog for when I'm out of town. Suprised it stayed so warm last night--14.8/1.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Lol--I'm here. Was out all day yesterday, reseting up for the next event. Looks like I get to rest for a while! lol

I said earlier that you can bank on a huge event around January 17-19. I'm going to be in Jamaice then. There is a huge analog for when I'm out of town. Suprised it stayed so warm last night--14.8/1.

Maybe not as long as you think. Thought you were without power for sure. We lost it here several times throughout the storm but never for more than an hour. Losing it in the summer isn't a problem but when you lose it in Winter at the height of the storm when the temp is in the low teens and there is a howling wind it's a reason for concern. Twice I was about ready to drag the generator out and get it going but then the power blinked on. Great feeling when that happens, you forget sometimes how much we rely on it.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Maybe not as long as you think. Thought you were without power for sure. We lost it here several times throughout the storm but never for more than an hour. Losing it in the summer isn't a problem but when you lose it in Winter at the height of the storm when the temp is in the low teens and there is a howling wind it's a reason for concern. Twice I was about ready to drag the generator out and get it going but then the power blinked on. Great feeling when that happens, you forget sometimes how much we rely on it.

Is there something in the cards? Surprise I ddidn't lose power or some of the older trees. No leaves ftw.

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