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The Pattern Ahead


ORH_wxman

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Yeah, wait until you see it come out on Raleighwx site in a little bit. Its pretty much the scenario we'd need to get Ray to stop complaining about lack of 18"+ storms.

I'm impressed that the ensemble mean is bombing the low from 994mb to 982mb in 12 hours...very unusual to see that. Given that its 132 hours out still, I'm with you in that we really need to get this another 48 hours closer.

Just looked at the 18z gfs ensemble, That is pretty impressive this far out......... :weight_lift:

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They are less likely to threaten our area in Miller Bs....but you can still get dryslotted if its tucked in too far SW. 12/30/00 was a miller B and I got a dryslot from hell in that. Its just more unlikely to see a very tucked solution 200-300 miles to our SW in a miller B..but you can still definitely get dry slotted.

Ahhhh yes. Like the greater Hartford area.

Probably worth locking that one in!

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I have got to say that after seeing the 12z individual GEFS members and now seeing the 18z GEFS means, I am seeing some agreement on the fact that we have a storm, however timing differences are bound to happen when we are still 120+ hours out from the storm. 18z NAM wants to keep alive the mid week clipper low, however most models are too far north with this disturbance. An anomalous PV low moves through the upper level trough into the eastern US. Amazing setup is abound. We will have to monitor the run to run variations in the handling of the large PV and the potential SW US S/W splitting apart and entering into the eastern US trough. Right now this is looking good. Could be the big storm I need before I go to San Antonio, TX.

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Hmm to look at the extreme in the other direction...What if this late week thing dives so far south that it gets areas further south more and shafts us.... I guess I'd be at more risk since I don't stick put to 70 west.

I have got to say that after seeing the 12z individual GEFS members and now seeing the 18z GEFS means, I am seeing some agreement on the fact that we have a storm, however timing differences are bound to happen when we are still 120+ hours out from the storm. 18z NAM wants to keep alive the mid week clipper low, however most models are too far north with this disturbance. An anomalous PV low moves through the upper level trough into the eastern US. Amazing setup is abound. We will have to monitor the run to run variations in the handling of the large PV and the potential SW US S/W splitting apart and entering into the eastern US trough. Right now this is looking good. Could be the big storm I need before I go to San Antonio, TX.

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Well, well well. Some would have had us believe that now that we're into January winter is over. Where are all the Warministas that insisted we better enjoy any Winter weather we got in December because after that it was going to be torch city? What a totally preposterous assertion that is now being shown to be just that, preposterous. We're heading into a protracted period of heavy Winter. AWT.

You've been in the Circle of Trust before it was the Circle of Trust. I wavered and wobbled as we retrograded, I sighed but did smile with my 12 inches. I lick my lips in anticipation of what is to come.

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You've been in the Circle of Trust before it was the Circle of Trust. I wavered and wobbled as we retrograded, I sighed but did smile with my 12 inches. I lick my lips in anticipation of what is to come.

lol. How are you Mark? Happy New Year! I'm having an awesome time so far this Winter. We need more snow but that's a constant. What's better than a 48" snow pack? a 58" snowpack. I really do believe in my heart of hearts we are in for a crazy, snowy ride for the next 4 months. Let's hope it comes to pass. Hey, it strikes me that you aren't travelling as much this Winter, is that true?

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I've tried unsuccessfully to put the circle of trust logo in my sig. Any suggestions?

save the logo by clicking on someone's logo (left click and save)

go to your profile, upper right corner edit profile.

right side change avatar and upload the avatar file you've just saved onto your computer.

Courtesy of Eric the Jayhawk!

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The 18z GFS through 384 hours is hilarious. Miller As... a monster monster monster cold outbreak... all sorts of stuff going on.

While I'm throwing around the historicals that sounds like feb 1899, the cold outbreak and Miller A of alllllll Miller As....blizzard conditions from the coasts of Louisiana, the whole Gulfcoast, FL panhandle and straight up the eastern seaboard.

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save the logo by clicking on someone's logo (left click and save)

go to your profile, upper right corner edit profile.

right side change avatar and upload the avatar file you've just saved onto your computer.

Courtesy of Eric the Jayhawk!

He wants it in his signature, not as his avatar. That requires an image hosting site. I've already PM'ed him the info. :thumbsup:

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lol. How are you Mark? Happy New Year! I'm having an awesome time so far this Winter. We need more snow but that's a constant. What's better than a 48" snow pack? a 58" snowpack. I really do believe in my heart of hearts we are in for a crazy, snowy ride for the next 4 months. Let's hope it comes to pass. Hey, it strikes me that you aren't travelling as much this Winter, is that true?

You are very observant! I haven't had a biz trip in weeks and don't have one until late Jan. I get busy as hell starting in March with 5 trips to London and 2 to Asia and Australia. But until then, I surf the board, write, wait for snow and even chase it if necessary.

Amen on the snowpack. We keep it longer than most of the guys in SNE except for you and Mike.

We are in for a ride of the sort that I moved up here for.

Happy New Year!

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Yeah, wait until you see it come out on Raleighwx site in a little bit. Its pretty much the scenario we'd need to get Ray to stop complaining about lack of 18"+ storms.

I'm impressed that the ensemble mean is bombing the low from 994mb to 982mb in 12 hours...very unusual to see that. Given that its 132 hours out still, I'm with you in that we really need to get this another 48 hours closer.

Just saw said ensembles ... niiiice! Hr 144 is spine-tingling. I'm excited about it but at the same time it's so far off and everybody knows how these things can just as easily fizzle into dust. Nothing to do but wait and make storm survival preparations. lol

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