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The Pattern Ahead


ORH_wxman

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THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT

COASTAL STORM EXISTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE LONG RANGE MODELS

AND ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL

TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...COURTESY

OF A REDEVELOPING STRONG NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN AND BLOCKING RIDGE

NEAR GREENLAND. THE LONG RANGE MODELS...GFS ENSEMBLES AND GLOBAL

ENSEMBLES HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TIMING AND

PHASING OF PACIFIC...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM

SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

AN INTENSE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING SE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL

CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS FORMS A H5 CUTOFF MUCH FASTER

AND FURTHER S...EVENTUALLY TRACKING S OF LONG ISLAND... WHILE THE

12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS THE CUTOFF FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND IS

ON THE NORTHERN ENVELOPE OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES...DEVELOPING

COASTAL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY. THE 12Z

UKMET APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE SOLUTION...WHILE THE

GGEM SPINS UP A MORE INTENSE COASTAL LOW FURTHER S OF THE AREA OFF

THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY.

Box taking note.

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ALB also has the potential flagged as well as some bouts of -sn. Today's 'torch' is quickly becoming just a bad memory.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOT

GETTING ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNDAY. EAST...WEST ORIENTED LAKE

EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL OSCILLATE NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO THE COLD FLOW

ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS

THE AREA...BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY CHANGE BUT AT THIS TIME

TUESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE DAYS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...THE POLAR VORTEX DROPS SOUTHEAST TO THE

MIDATLANTIC REGION....BRINGING THE THREAT OF ANOTHER STRONG

NOREASTER TO THE REGION.-- End Changed Discussion --

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582dm ridge over Alaska and a 492dm PV dropping toward Manitoba. Wow

Yeah almost all ensemble guidance is in agreement that we get that monster -EPO ridge up there. Canada is definitely going to turn into Siberia for a little while.

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Well, well well. Some would have had us believe that now that we're into January winter is over. Where are all the Warministas that insisted we better enjoy any Winter weather we got in December because after that it was going to be torch city? What a totally preposterous assertion that is now being shown to be just that, preposterous. We're heading into a protracted period of heavy Winter. AWT.

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Well, well well. Some would have had us believe that now that we're into January winter is over. Where are all the Warministas that insisted we better enjoy any Winter weather we got in December because after that it was going to be torch city? What a totally preposterous assertion that is now being shown to be just that, preposterous. We're heading into a protracted period of heavy Winter. AWT.

Start chucking, Pete.

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ALB also has the potential flagged as well as some bouts of -sn. Today's 'torch' is quickly becoming just a bad memory.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOT

GETTING ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNDAY. EAST...WEST ORIENTED LAKE

EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL OSCILLATE NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO THE COLD FLOW

ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS

THE AREA...BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY CHANGE BUT AT THIS TIME

TUESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE DAYS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...THE POLAR VORTEX DROPS SOUTHEAST TO THE

MIDATLANTIC REGION....BRINGING THE THREAT OF ANOTHER STRONG

NOREASTER TO THE REGION.-- End Changed Discussion --

Until ALY sounds alarms with storms, I take things with a bit of a grain of salt. In the cusp zones, we need to have the enthusiasm from both sides.

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Excellent. Let's get this under 72 hours for the love of Allah.

Yeah, wait until you see it come out on Raleighwx site in a little bit. Its pretty much the scenario we'd need to get Ray to stop complaining about lack of 18"+ storms.

I'm impressed that the ensemble mean is bombing the low from 994mb to 982mb in 12 hours...very unusual to see that. Given that its 132 hours out still, I'm with you in that we really need to get this another 48 hours closer.

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Until ALY sounds alarms with storms, I take things with a bit of a grain of salt. In the cusp zones, we need to have the enthusiasm from both sides.

The mere fact that the threat of another 'Strong N'oreaster" is mentioned 5-6 days out is about as enthusiastic as you'll see ALB get for something at this range. Bottomline is there are threats on the radar despite all the calls for January to be a dud. I like the way this season is already confounding those that so smugly predicted a horrible la nina year. Big Winter, big big Winter.

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Yeah, wait until you see it come out on Raleighwx site in a little bit. Its pretty much the scenario we'd need to get Ray to stop complaining about lack of 18"+ storms.

I'm impressed that the ensemble mean is bombing the low from 994mb to 982mb in 12 hours...very unusual to see that. Given that its 132 hours out still, I'm with you in that we really need to get this another 48 hours closer.

You were saying something earlier that we wouldn't have to worry about a dryslot with Miller B's?

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You were saying something earlier that we wouldn't have to worry about a dryslot with Miller B's?

They are less likely to threaten our area in Miller Bs....but you can still get dryslotted if its tucked in too far SW. 12/30/00 was a miller B and I got a dryslot from hell in that. Its just more unlikely to see a very tucked solution 200-300 miles to our SW in a miller B..but you can still definitely get dry slotted.

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