ski MRG Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 TIED RECORD HIGH OF 58F AT ORH THIS AFTERNOON AT 217 PM. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN 1892. NO OTHER RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN. Was Will running around in shorts today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 What a foolish JI As much as i would like to see something 20"+ as well, I will take whatever comes along after last winter....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 -36 to -38C temps at 850 on the gfs, out in the Canadian prairies, pushing into the Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 TIED RECORD HIGH OF 58F AT ORH THIS AFTERNOON AT 217 PM. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN 1892. NO OTHER RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN. Was Will running around in shorts today? Yup ... his schwartz was flapping to and fro as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 -36 to -38C temps at 850 on the gfs, out in the Canadian prairies, pushing into the Dakotas. Move it east...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 -36 to -38C temps at 850 on the gfs, out in the Canadian prairies, pushing into the Dakotas. toasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 TIED RECORD HIGH OF 58F AT ORH THIS AFTERNOON AT 217 PM. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN 1892. NO OTHER RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN. Was Will running around in shorts today? I posted it in the obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM EXISTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...COURTESY OF A REDEVELOPING STRONG NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN AND BLOCKING RIDGE NEAR GREENLAND. THE LONG RANGE MODELS...GFS ENSEMBLES AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TIMING AND PHASING OF PACIFIC...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AN INTENSE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING SE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS FORMS A H5 CUTOFF MUCH FASTER AND FURTHER S...EVENTUALLY TRACKING S OF LONG ISLAND... WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS THE CUTOFF FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND IS ON THE NORTHERN ENVELOPE OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES...DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY. THE 12Z UKMET APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE SOLUTION...WHILE THE GGEM SPINS UP A MORE INTENSE COASTAL LOW FURTHER S OF THE AREA OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY. Box taking note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 well, 18z NOGAPS seems similar to the 12z EURO based on descriptions I just looked over for Friday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yup ... his schwartz was flapping to and fro as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 ALB also has the potential flagged as well as some bouts of -sn. Today's 'torch' is quickly becoming just a bad memory. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOT GETTING ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNDAY. EAST...WEST ORIENTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL OSCILLATE NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO THE COLD FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY CHANGE BUT AT THIS TIME TUESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE DAYS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...THE POLAR VORTEX DROPS SOUTHEAST TO THE MIDATLANTIC REGION....BRINGING THE THREAT OF ANOTHER STRONG NOREASTER TO THE REGION.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Move it east...... Keep it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 582dm ridge over Alaska and a 492dm PV dropping toward Manitoba. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Here we go with the retrograding bs again. Lol--just give a stright forward Miller-B and be done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 582dm ridge over Alaska and a 492dm PV dropping toward Manitoba. Wow Yeah almost all ensemble guidance is in agreement that we get that monster -EPO ridge up there. Canada is definitely going to turn into Siberia for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Well, well well. Some would have had us believe that now that we're into January winter is over. Where are all the Warministas that insisted we better enjoy any Winter weather we got in December because after that it was going to be torch city? What a totally preposterous assertion that is now being shown to be just that, preposterous. We're heading into a protracted period of heavy Winter. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Lol--just give a stright forward Miller-B and be done with it. Yea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Well, well well. Some would have had us believe that now that we're into January winter is over. Where are all the Warministas that insisted we better enjoy any Winter weather we got in December because after that it was going to be torch city? What a totally preposterous assertion that is now being shown to be just that, preposterous. We're heading into a protracted period of heavy Winter. AWT. Start chucking, Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 ALB also has the potential flagged as well as some bouts of -sn. Today's 'torch' is quickly becoming just a bad memory. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOT GETTING ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNDAY. EAST...WEST ORIENTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL OSCILLATE NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO THE COLD FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY CHANGE BUT AT THIS TIME TUESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE DAYS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...THE POLAR VORTEX DROPS SOUTHEAST TO THE MIDATLANTIC REGION....BRINGING THE THREAT OF ANOTHER STRONG NOREASTER TO THE REGION.-- End Changed Discussion -- Until ALY sounds alarms with storms, I take things with a bit of a grain of salt. In the cusp zones, we need to have the enthusiasm from both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Wow, the 18z GFS ensemble mean is WAY more amped up than the OP run or the 12z ensemble mean. It already has a redeveloped 994mb low about 100-150 mi E of ACY at 132h, and then it puts a 982mb directly over the BM at 144h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 the end of the run is almost comical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Wow, the 18z GFS ensemble mean is WAY more amped up than the OP run or the 12z ensemble mean. It already has a redeveloped 994mb low about 100-150 mi E of ACY at 132h, and then it puts a 982mb directly over the BM at 144h. Excellent. Let's get this under 72 hours for the love of Allah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Wow, the 18z GFS ensemble mean is WAY more amped up than the OP run or the 12z ensemble mean. It already has a redeveloped 994mb low about 100-150 mi E of ACY at 132h, and then it puts a 982mb directly over the BM at 144h. Approve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Excellent. Let's get this under 72 hours for the love of Allah. Yeah, wait until you see it come out on Raleighwx site in a little bit. Its pretty much the scenario we'd need to get Ray to stop complaining about lack of 18"+ storms. I'm impressed that the ensemble mean is bombing the low from 994mb to 982mb in 12 hours...very unusual to see that. Given that its 132 hours out still, I'm with you in that we really need to get this another 48 hours closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I'd kill for that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Until ALY sounds alarms with storms, I take things with a bit of a grain of salt. In the cusp zones, we need to have the enthusiasm from both sides. The mere fact that the threat of another 'Strong N'oreaster" is mentioned 5-6 days out is about as enthusiastic as you'll see ALB get for something at this range. Bottomline is there are threats on the radar despite all the calls for January to be a dud. I like the way this season is already confounding those that so smugly predicted a horrible la nina year. Big Winter, big big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yeah, wait until you see it come out on Raleighwx site in a little bit. Its pretty much the scenario we'd need to get Ray to stop complaining about lack of 18"+ storms. I'm impressed that the ensemble mean is bombing the low from 994mb to 982mb in 12 hours...very unusual to see that. Given that its 132 hours out still, I'm with you in that we really need to get this another 48 hours closer. You were saying something earlier that we wouldn't have to worry about a dryslot with Miller B's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Start chucking, Pete. I've tried unsuccessfully to put the circle of trust logo in my sig. Any suggestions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 You were saying something earlier that we wouldn't have to worry about a dryslot with Miller B's? They are less likely to threaten our area in Miller Bs....but you can still get dryslotted if its tucked in too far SW. 12/30/00 was a miller B and I got a dryslot from hell in that. Its just more unlikely to see a very tucked solution 200-300 miles to our SW in a miller B..but you can still definitely get dry slotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I've tried unsuccessfully to put the circle of trust logo in my sig. Any suggestions? Save the pic to desktop. Go to profile settings, change avatar up load pic from desktop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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