Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 DT fires for us despite GAYS pessimism First lets deal with the January 7 – 8 threat. This event is not going to be a Middle Atlantic winter storm but it will be a very impressive New England snowstorm . Anybody who tells differently does know what the talking about. How can I make that call and what has changed? The European model and some of the runs of the Canadian and GFS were focusing on more energy coming out of southwest Conus. That is no longer the case because there is not enough energy coming out of the southwest. All the model data continues to show that the strong polar vortex will dive out of Hudson’s bay Canada and move through the Great Lakes then into New England. Earlier it looked like this movement would combined with the energy coming out of the southwest to form the Middle Atlantic coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 DT fires for us despite GAYS pessimism First lets deal with the January 7 – 8 threat. This event is not going to be a Middle Atlantic winter storm but it will be a very impressive New England snowstorm . Anybody who tells differently does know what the talking about. How can I make that call and what has changed? The European model and some of the runs of the Canadian and GFS were focusing on more energy coming out of southwest Conus. That is no longer the case because there is not enough energy coming out of the southwest. All the model data continues to show that the strong polar vortex will dive out of Hudson’s bay Canada and move through the Great Lakes then into New England. Earlier it looked like this movement would combined with the energy coming out of the southwest to form the Middle Atlantic coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Its still there, but its very moisture starved...maybe a few flurries. The vortmax diffuses out on the Euro run....we need it to hold together a bit stronger kind of like the end of the NAM run shows. I'm not very optimistic on the clipper potential...as it has trended worse the past 24h vs holding steady or getting better...but it still wouldn't shock me to see it come back a little more robust on future runs to give us a light event. Yea I thought the 12z NAM was impressive enough in the 500mb level... Seems with that much streak dynamics running quintessentially underneath our latitude that whether the model succeeds in painting the QPF or not, it is easy to visualize a band of light snow orient west to east through the area. The kind that pulses green echoes amid a blue wash of grains and paltry dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yea I thought the 12z NAM was impressive enough in the 500mb level... Seems with that much streak dynamics running quintessentially underneath our latitude that whether the model succeeds in painting the QPF or not, it is easy to visualize a band of light snow orient west to east through the area. The kind that pulses green echoes amid a blue wash of grains and paltry dendrites. Let's drop a quick 1-3 on Tuesday and prime us up for the big dog Friday. Sort of like a fluffer who primes for the big sex event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 DT fires for us despite GAYS pessimism First lets deal with the January 7 – 8 threat. This event is not going to be a Middle Atlantic winter storm but it will be a very impressive New England snowstorm . Anybody who tells differently does know what the talking about. How can I make that call and what has changed? The European model and some of the runs of the Canadian and GFS were focusing on more energy coming out of southwest Conus. That is no longer the case because there is not enough energy coming out of the southwest. All the model data continues to show that the strong polar vortex will dive out of Hudson’s bay Canada and move through the Great Lakes then into New England. Earlier it looked like this movement would combined with the energy coming out of the southwest to form the Middle Atlantic coastal storm. I just stated that this run blows, which it does....all I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I just stated that this run blows, which it does....all I said. It gives us a snow event..which is all we want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yeah that op Euro is fairly close to the GFS at 144 hours...it's a difference of a sub-504dm vortex being centered over Buffalo instead of between Cleveland and Pittsburgh on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 It gives us a snow event..which is all we want Well, for those of us who want a large event, it blows.....not everyone is of the opinion that 4" rocks. You also ignore all of my 2004-05 analogies. You must not be of your right mind to view that as "pessimistic". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yeah that op Euro is fairly close to the GFS at 144 hours...it's a difference of a sub-504dm vortex being centered over Buffalo instead of between Cleveland and Pittsburgh on the GFS. A track somewhere right between both would work........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 DT fires for us despite GAYS pessimism First lets deal with the January 7 – 8 threat. This event is not going to be a Middle Atlantic winter storm but it will be a very impressive New England snowstorm . Anybody who tells differently does know what the talking about. How can I make that call and what has changed? The European model and some of the runs of the Canadian and GFS were focusing on more energy coming out of southwest Conus. That is no longer the case because there is not enough energy coming out of the southwest. All the model data continues to show that the strong polar vortex will dive out of Hudson’s bay Canada and move through the Great Lakes then into New England. Earlier it looked like this movement would combined with the energy coming out of the southwest to form the Middle Atlantic coastal storm. Essentially agree with him here... Also, 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS: THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE: A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE RACING ACROSS THE NE QUADRANT OF THE NATION TUE...A VORTEX PLUNGING SE FROM WRN HUDSON BAY TUE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY FRI; A LEFTOVER UPPER LOW MEANDERING SOMEWHERE TO THE W OF SRN CA; AND A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE RIDGE MOVING INTO WRN CANADA THU DAY 5 THAT EVENTUALLY GETS FLATTENED BY HEIGHT FALLS TO THE W THEREAFTER. AS USUAL...THE DEVIL IS IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE CONCERNING POSSIBLE EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS FRI DAY 6 VICINITY OF LONG ISLAND IN RESPONSE TO LARGE 500MB HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT THAT TIME. SPREAD OF UPPER LOW SOLUTIONS FOR FRI RANGE FROM NY STATE IN THE 12Z/01 GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/12Z ECMWF TO WV/KY IN THE NEW CANADIAN. SRN NEW ENG HAS THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR ANOTHER REALLY BIG SNOW FROM THIS SYS. WHATEVER THIS DEVELOPING STORM DOES...WE ARE HIGHLY CONFIDENT OF ANOTHER EPISODE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BITTER WIND CHILLS IN ITS WAKE THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF WAS ON THE N SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE BY DAY 6 HAVING ITS UPPER LOW OVER NY STATE. FLOOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Well, for those of us who want a large event, it blows.....not everyone is of the opinion that 4" rocks. You also ignore all of my 2004-05 analogies. You must not be of your right mind to view that as "pessimistic". I honestly think you are the only one who has this morbid fascination of being the jackpot everytime. Everyone else would be happy with a nice snow event. Jackpots are nice, but to fixate and masturbate to is simply not right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Essentially agree with him here... Also, 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS: THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE: A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE RACING ACROSS THE NE QUADRANT OF THE NATION TUE...A VORTEX PLUNGING SE FROM WRN HUDSON BAY TUE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY FRI; A LEFTOVER UPPER LOW MEANDERING SOMEWHERE TO THE W OF SRN CA; AND A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE RIDGE MOVING INTO WRN CANADA THU DAY 5 THAT EVENTUALLY GETS FLATTENED BY HEIGHT FALLS TO THE W THEREAFTER. AS USUAL...THE DEVIL IS IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE CONCERNING POSSIBLE EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS FRI DAY 6 VICINITY OF LONG ISLAND IN RESPONSE TO LARGE 500MB HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT THAT TIME. SPREAD OF UPPER LOW SOLUTIONS FOR FRI RANGE FROM NY STATE IN THE 12Z/01 GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/12Z ECMWF TO WV/KY IN THE NEW CANADIAN. SRN NEW ENG HAS THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR ANOTHER REALLY BIG SNOW FROM THIS SYS. WHATEVER THIS DEVELOPING STORM DOES...WE ARE HIGHLY CONFIDENT OF ANOTHER EPISODE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BITTER WIND CHILLS IN ITS WAKE THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF WAS ON THE N SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE BY DAY 6 HAVING ITS UPPER LOW OVER NY STATE. FLOOD Talk dirty to us Mr Flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I honestly think you are the only one who has this morbid fascination of being the jackpot everytime. Everyone else would be happy with a nice snow event. Jackpots are nice, but to fixate and masturbate to is simply not right I will take as many pedestrian type storms that we can get, 2-4", 3-6" events....Just give me like 10 of them........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I honestly think you are the only one who has this morbid fascination of being the jackpot everytime. Everyone else would be happy with a nice snow event. Jackpots are nice, but to fixate and masturbate to is simply not right Not necessarily jackpot, but 20"+....it's been awhile. And I have news for you, when expectations are not met, the masses are very unhappy....you are wrong. You should have seen the thretadonce it became apparent that the dry slot was consuming our storm, late Sunday night....it was far from only me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Not necessarily jackpot, but 20"+....it's been awhile. And I have news for you, when expectations are not met, the masses are very unhappy....you are wrong. You should have seen the thretadonce it became apparent that the dry slot was consuming our storm, late Sunday night....it was not only me. I read all of the posts upon my wake up call of 4:00am and didn't see anyone really upset that they were getting 12-18 instead of 20-30. Everyone was happy with a major, major snowstorm. One of our top 10-20 events in Sne history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I will take as many pedestrian type storms that we can get, 2-4", 3-6" events....Just give me like 10 of them........... Yea, can have good snow pack retention.....I don't. Big factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I read all of the posts upon my wake up call of 4:00am and didn't see anyone really upset that they were getting 12-18 instead of 20-30. Everyone was happy with a major, major snowstorm. One of our top 10-20 events in Sne history You're obviously just trying to send me off the deep end, at this point....you ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 An endless string of light-mod events is far more suitable for the interior and especially the elevated....agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 You're obviously just trying to send me off the deep end, at this point....you ftl. This one will be one we tell our grandkids about..Wind and snow combo..Wow..just gives me chills thinking about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 This one will be one we tell our grandkids about..Wind and snow combo..Wow..just gives me chills thinking about it 3 years ago, that would have put me in a straight jacket. lol Thankfully, I have grown to know you much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 This one will be one we tell our grandkids about..Wind and snow combo..Wow..just gives me chills thinking about it Violently agree, this past event will be passed down, 60 mph wind gusts and 15 inches of snow with white out conditions, just incredible. Next week looks amazing and Jan shaping up to be epic despite the doom and gloom forecasts. 44/31 overcast snowcover delicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Violently agree, this past event will be passed down, 60 mph wind gusts and 15 inches of snow with white out conditions, just incredible. Next week looks amazing and Jan shaping up to be epic despite the doom and gloom forecasts. 44/31 overcast snowcover delicious. You have a severe, heavy "delicious" fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yea, can have good snow pack retention.....I don't. Big factor. I can see where you can have issues with retention, Not so much up here, I am holding on pretty well even with todays torch...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I can see where you can have issues with retention, Not so much up here, I am holding on pretty well even with todays torch...... My day time highs are usually about 3* warmer than ORH and other distant interior locales with some elevation....that adds up and really take a toll on my retantion capacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Its nice not to look at the models or the board for 6 days and come back to a legit 5 day threat. That being said after last storm, see you guys on Wednesday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Euro ensembles redevelop low SE of LI but then really have it go to town as it goes into Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Euro ensembles develop the low south of sne, like the op run and move it to a position just east of BOS and stalls in the Gulf of Maine. Def a good solution for the Maine folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Euro ensembles develop the low south of sne, like the op run and move it to a position just east of BOS and stalls in the Gulf of Maine. Def a good solution for the Maine folk. I think I like the ensemble solution slightly better than the OP...the OP sort of developed the low over our heads before having it go nuts in the GOM. Not that this stuff matters a ton at day 5/6. Ideal for us though is having it bomb out as its crossing from SE of LI to E of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I think I like the ensemble solution slightly better than the OP...the OP sort of developed the low over our heads before having it go nuts in the GOM. Not that this stuff matters a ton at day 5/6. Ideal for us though is having it bomb out as its crossing from SE of LI to E of BOS. Perfect spot for us..Prime area for interior getting pounded as HPC favoring SNE with heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I think I like the ensemble solution slightly better than the OP...the OP sort of developed the low over our heads before having it go nuts in the GOM. Not that this stuff matters a ton at day 5/6. Ideal for us though is having it bomb out as its crossing from SE of LI to E of BOS. I wish it would go to town quicker to the se and not go so far north. Verbatim, it wouldn't be a great solution for us, but Maine gets crushed. I agree that it does look better than the op. Like you said, we are still 5-6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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