weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Price we may pay for the HECS. HECS essentially ushers new pattern albeit brief. Well worth it. Great point. I mentioned something like this last week I think...if we do see a huge snow event it would flush the pattern for a period then hopefully it reloads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro has a pretty decent icing event for the interior D9-10...that nasty high up in Quebec forces the sfc redevelopment to the south of SNE...so while it eventually torches at 850, the sfc never warms. This would be how we could avoid a torch with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Euro has a pretty decent icing event for the interior D9-10...that nasty high up in Quebec forces the sfc redevelopment to the south of SNE...so while it eventually torches at 850, the sfc never warms. This would be how we could avoid a torch with this system. 1) 00z Euro had that closed GL low over the central N Rockies during that same time frame, showing huge stochastic potential. 2) Recovering PNA some 2+ SD argues for farther E/S placement with any geopotential minimum during that time frame 3) Typhoon Tip is a giant dork 4) All these suggest that may end up verifying in the OV with a Miller B chance. Time to tell.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 1) 00z Euro had that closed GL low over the central N Rockies during that same time frame, showing huge stochastic potential. 2) Recovering PNA some 2+ SD argues for farther E/S placement with any geopotential minimum during that time frame 3) Typhoon Tip is a giant dork 4) All these suggest that may end up verifying in the OV with a Miller B chance. Time to tell.. The models have hinted at some sort of a overrunning thing at that time, so hopefully something to look forward to...esp interior. I noticed this esp today. Euro ensembles also show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Interior stayed cold today 20's to near 30 while areas farther east torched. High of 30.9 here..Hoping to keep my one inch of snowcover for X-mas..I'll consider that 3/4 of a White Christmas..but not 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well the Euro lost it's CAD , big high in Quebec icestorm signal at 00z and absolutely torches us Dec 31-Jan 2nd before the cold comes back. Hopefully the ens still showed some CAD potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well the Euro lost it's CAD , big high in Quebec icestorm signal at 00z and absolutely torches us Dec 31-Jan 2nd before the cold comes back. Hopefully the ens still showed some CAD potential I hadn't looked beyond our current storm til this morning ... pretty disappointed to see the midwest bomb resulting in torch conditions for us. Likelihood of a brown New Years is close to 100% if the 12/26 threat doesn't deliver several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well the Euro lost it's CAD , big high in Quebec icestorm signal at 00z and absolutely torches us Dec 31-Jan 2nd before the cold comes back. Hopefully the ens still showed some CAD potential Ensembles still have the CAD signal. Congrats on interior ice. The weeklies look nice. Continued -NAO. Incredible, not terribly strong except for week 2..but man. Week 2 features low heights across the nation's mid section with ridging trying to push into the pac nw. This could spell some miller b or swfe type stuff. week 3 features high heights over srn Greenland extending west into ne Canada. Low heights are now located over the Pac nw with a finger of lower heights across the nrn tier extending into the Atlantic. week 4 features ridging across the sw US and and GOA low. Also, a nice -NAO ridge with a semblance of lower heights south of sne. It almost looks like a miller b pattern to me. Overall I really don't see signs of extended warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Ensembles still have the CAD signal. Congrats on interior ice. The weeklies look nice. Continued -NAO. Incredible, not terribly strong except for week 2..but man. Week 2 features low heights across the nation's mid section with ridging trying to push into the pac nw. This could spell some miller b or swfe type stuff. week 3 features high heights over srn Greenland extending west into ne Canada. Low heights are now located over the Pac nw with a finger of lower heights across the nrn tier extending into the Atlantic. week 4 features ridging across the sw US and and GOA low. Also, a nice -NAO ridge with a semblance of lower heights south of sne. It almost looks like a miller b pattern to me. Overall I really don't see signs of extended warmth. Good news. I just wish the Euro op would lose that damn torch/cutter signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Boy is the 06z gfs ever cold in Canada. Holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 We just have to get out of this current pattern and it looks like we are doing it. I for one can hardly wait. Happy to see the occassional warm spell if it means we start to get some snow storms. This is not the weather I moved to NE for. For us in NNE we just need a normal typical winter, which is often frustrating to others south of us, but brings us about 80 inches. Happy to see the blocking dissipate at least for a while. If we get these pulses of blocking and +PNA over the next few weeks I'm sure that would bring snow on a fairly regular basis. The storm around New Years would be mostly frozen up here I'd think, probably snow on the front and maybe a change to ice. Gosh would that be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 We just have to get out of this current pattern and it looks like we are doing it. I for one can hardly wait. Happy to see the occassional warm spell if it means we start to get some snow storms. This is not the weather I moved to NE for. For us in NNE we just need a normal typical winter, which is often frustrating to others south of us, but brings us about 80 inches. Happy to see the blocking dissipate at least for a while. If we get these pulses of blocking and +PNA over the next few weeks I'm sure that would bring snow on a fairly regular basis. The storm around New Years would be mostly frozen up here I'd think, probably snow on the front and maybe a change to ice. Gosh would that be nice. I have a feeling the interior gets their turn in some shape or form near NY. COuld be mostly ice, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Please please someone do something to change this disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SG and some of the other mets think we go back into the freezer sometime between days 10-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 SG and some of the other mets think we go back into the freezer sometime between days 10-15 12z GFS ENS show a huge -EPO/-NAO at Day 10...very favorable pattern for cold and snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Euro torch is still there..which looks like it will try and wipe out all of our deep snowcover later next week for the New YEar. Scooter you up? Euro ens still try to keep us cold? I can't imagine they still do with the brutal op torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Enjoy the snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Enjoy the snow now. Icestorm /CAD fail The op beats the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I hadn't looked beyond our current storm til this morning ... pretty disappointed to see the midwest bomb resulting in torch conditions for us. Likelihood of a brown New Years is close to 100% if the 12/26 threat doesn't deliver several inches. Just had to bump this post! Jeeebus how we were thinking just 48 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Well with deep snowcover, short days and radiational cooling our snowpack survives this brief assault and is turned to cement. Then we await the the fun after the first of the year. Honestly that is what I think will happen. And the next pattern is going to be much better for us. This big storm will shake it up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Good news is Euro shortened the torch from 4 days to 2 at 12z. .Hopefully sneaky Quebec cold can change it even more for the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Let's look ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 It's ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 It's actually not bad at all, once we get past the torch. NAO ridge again with a another ridge poking into the Aleutians. Seems like troughing will set up out west, so maybe some swfe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 It's actually not bad at all, once we get past the torch. NAO ridge again with a another ridge poking into the Aleutians. Seems like troughing will set up out west, so maybe some swfe? Short lived torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 GYX not bad here. We are in the 30s this week, cold at night should be good rad cooling. then snow showers satruday night. I think we are a bit locked into winter now and I like the idea of swfe where I tend to be a rather solid or even overperformer. A brief minor moderation and then the snow pack build through the first part of Jan. Very optimistic here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Mild NY weekend. I think we have enough snow to hold onto for a 2 day mini torch. 4 days in the 50S or higher would be a killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Just had to bump this post! Jeeebus how we were thinking just 48 hours ago. lol ... me FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 It's actually not bad at all, once we get past the torch. NAO ridge again with a another ridge poking into the Aleutians. Seems like troughing will set up out west, so maybe some swfe? What happened to the CAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Can we get some met input as far as how warm we get and duration of torch and if the cutter will our rain or just be a showery fropa as we turn cold again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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