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The Pattern Ahead


ORH_wxman

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Euro has a pretty decent icing event for the interior D9-10...that nasty high up in Quebec forces the sfc redevelopment to the south of SNE...so while it eventually torches at 850, the sfc never warms.

This would be how we could avoid a torch with this system.

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Euro has a pretty decent icing event for the interior D9-10...that nasty high up in Quebec forces the sfc redevelopment to the south of SNE...so while it eventually torches at 850, the sfc never warms.

This would be how we could avoid a torch with this system.

1) 00z Euro had that closed GL low over the central N Rockies during that same time frame, showing huge stochastic potential.

2) Recovering PNA some 2+ SD argues for farther E/S placement with any geopotential minimum during that time frame

3) Typhoon Tip is a giant dork

4) All these suggest that may end up verifying in the OV with a Miller B chance.

Time to tell..

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1) 00z Euro had that closed GL low over the central N Rockies during that same time frame, showing huge stochastic potential.

2) Recovering PNA some 2+ SD argues for farther E/S placement with any geopotential minimum during that time frame

3) Typhoon Tip is a giant dork

4) All these suggest that may end up verifying in the OV with a Miller B chance.

Time to tell..

The models have hinted at some sort of a overrunning thing at that time, so hopefully something to look forward to...esp interior. I noticed this esp today. Euro ensembles also show this.

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Well the Euro lost it's CAD , big high in Quebec icestorm signal at 00z and absolutely torches us Dec 31-Jan 2nd before the cold comes back. Hopefully the ens still showed some CAD potential

I hadn't looked beyond our current storm til this morning ... pretty disappointed to see the midwest bomb resulting in torch conditions for us. Likelihood of a brown New Years is close to 100% if the 12/26 threat doesn't deliver several inches.

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Well the Euro lost it's CAD , big high in Quebec icestorm signal at 00z and absolutely torches us Dec 31-Jan 2nd before the cold comes back. Hopefully the ens still showed some CAD potential

Ensembles still have the CAD signal. Congrats on interior ice.

The weeklies look nice. Continued -NAO. Incredible, not terribly strong except for week 2..but man.

Week 2 features low heights across the nation's mid section with ridging trying to push into the pac nw. This could spell some miller b or swfe type stuff.

week 3 features high heights over srn Greenland extending west into ne Canada. Low heights are now located over the Pac nw with a finger of lower heights across the nrn tier extending into the Atlantic.

week 4 features ridging across the sw US and and GOA low. Also, a nice -NAO ridge with a semblance of lower heights south of sne. It almost looks like a miller b pattern to me.

Overall I really don't see signs of extended warmth.

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Ensembles still have the CAD signal. Congrats on interior ice.

The weeklies look nice. Continued -NAO. Incredible, not terribly strong except for week 2..but man.

Week 2 features low heights across the nation's mid section with ridging trying to push into the pac nw. This could spell some miller b or swfe type stuff.

week 3 features high heights over srn Greenland extending west into ne Canada. Low heights are now located over the Pac nw with a finger of lower heights across the nrn tier extending into the Atlantic.

week 4 features ridging across the sw US and and GOA low. Also, a nice -NAO ridge with a semblance of lower heights south of sne. It almost looks like a miller b pattern to me.

Overall I really don't see signs of extended warmth.

Good news. I just wish the Euro op would lose that damn torch/cutter signal

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We just have to get out of this current pattern and it looks like we are doing it. I for one can hardly wait. Happy to see the occassional warm spell if it means we start to get some snow storms. This is not the weather I moved to NE for.

For us in NNE we just need a normal typical winter, which is often frustrating to others south of us, but brings us about 80 inches.

Happy to see the blocking dissipate at least for a while. If we get these pulses of blocking and +PNA over the next few weeks I'm sure that would bring snow on a fairly regular basis. The storm around New Years would be mostly frozen up here I'd think, probably snow on the front and maybe a change to ice. Gosh would that be nice.

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We just have to get out of this current pattern and it looks like we are doing it. I for one can hardly wait. Happy to see the occassional warm spell if it means we start to get some snow storms. This is not the weather I moved to NE for.

For us in NNE we just need a normal typical winter, which is often frustrating to others south of us, but brings us about 80 inches.

Happy to see the blocking dissipate at least for a while. If we get these pulses of blocking and +PNA over the next few weeks I'm sure that would bring snow on a fairly regular basis. The storm around New Years would be mostly frozen up here I'd think, probably snow on the front and maybe a change to ice. Gosh would that be nice.

I have a feeling the interior gets their turn in some shape or form near NY. COuld be mostly ice, but who knows.

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I hadn't looked beyond our current storm til this morning ... pretty disappointed to see the midwest bomb resulting in torch conditions for us. Likelihood of a brown New Years is close to 100% if the 12/26 threat doesn't deliver several inches.

Just had to bump this post! Jeeebus how we were thinking just 48 hours ago.

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Well with deep snowcover, short days and radiational cooling our snowpack survives this brief assault and is turned to cement. Then we await the the fun after the first of the year. Honestly that is what I think will happen. And the next pattern is going to be much better for us. This big storm will shake it up a bit.

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GYX not bad here. We are in the 30s this week, cold at night should be good rad cooling. then snow showers satruday night. I think we are a bit locked into winter now and I like the idea of swfe where I tend to be a rather solid or even overperformer. A brief minor moderation and then the snow pack build through the first part of Jan. Very optimistic here.

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