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The Pattern Ahead


ORH_wxman

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For the general enthusiasts and Mets et all:

Major problems with that latter system as of the 00z Jan 1 runs across the board, however. The upshot is that we have plenty enough lead time to morph things more favorably ( So please no grousing - :) ), but this is what should be looked for in future runs:

1) Less leading gradient in the geopotential medium over the TV. We need to have better erosion of the heights over the northern Gulf, FL and adjacent areas. As is modeled ... there is a slight positive anomaly there that is accentuated tremendously by anomalous blocking up in Canada that intermediately is pinning a strong negative anomaly through southern and southeastern Canada. That configuration is causing too much gradient farther south in the balanced medium of the deep layer troposphere; the result of which means that systems attempting to move through 35-45N belt by 100-70W approximate rectangulum are shearing - this is more technically a negative wave interference (which for you youngins you'll learn what that means in physical terms in the coming torturous academic journey of the doggedly determined to never find a job Meteorological hopeful...) that is effective at both the L/W and S/W length scales. The balanced flow through that region would have been anomalously fast anyway given to such a strong blocking pinning that negative region N as described, but here it is augmented even higher by the fact that for 48 to 72 hour prior to the trough in the deep SW CONUS region was pumping heights up down stream in the lower MV, TV and Gulf regions.

2) More southern stream dynamics needs to come through the western ridge - or perhaps doing so as an over-the-topper intermediate stream S/W like in 1978. What that would do is assist the erosion of the medium as described above. The 00z ECM is pretty close actually at doing this with an over-the-topper. At 144 hours it has a nice area of positive vorticity coming off the Pacific, and this zooms over the top of the ridge, dives ESE through the western lakes and triggers the subsuming of the SPV south. I am not sure folks realize just how close that is to the makings of an event that would rival the last. It's probably a matter of 6DM or so height resistance away from both digging the core of the negative anomaly ideally under our latitude while simultaneously dramatically improving the DPVA as it does so. That is all code for KerBAM BOOMBA BOMB (check page 172 of AMS Glossary of terms). At 6 days away, do we want to hedge our bets that a stronger Pac injection won't take place? No, if you have an iota of intellect you would not. The 06z GFS is actually somewhat similar, but is actually even weaker with the southern and/or intermediate dynamics. There is some present in the run, but by and large the run uses almost entirely the SPV to do everything. That almost reminds me of a March 2001 scenario there, but perhaps displaced farther up the coast.

3) I seem to recall there were a couple of cycles prior to the last historic-for-the-MA-while-wasting-the-time-for-interior-SNE, storm that a wave some 3 days prior to the main show was monitored. In a way, we are in a similar scenario with this will-it-or-won't-it clipper; maybe we can will it into being? Anyway, enough so that my thoughts as I came out of slumber this morning went to repeating historic bomb winter of 2010-2011. I frankly do not believe we are going to ever see a meaningful -AO/-NAO recovery this year, as the AMO and the solar cycle are strong linear correlations and both are aiming downward like porn star on a drugged out 19-year old. Moreover, the -AO overall in the hemisphere is masking the typical La Nina regime; in fact, because the gradients are what they are, we are almost seeing a more Le Nino like deal with all these coastals. But that is supposition.. The point is, the governing parameters do not appear to really have a means to change before this cold season's overall characteristic is in the books. The -AO and La Nina during a negative solar cycle just may appear to be a gem of the year.

Join the club.

This winter is going to get better as we move along.

Happy 2011.

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Nice post John!

I just reviewed the 00z Euro and GFS. There are certain qualities of the GFS that remind me of March 01 also. I was actually just about to post that, and glad you did first to give it some credibility ;)

We're very close to seeing some HECS model runs. Whether or not it verifies is a whole different story. But I think we have the potential for at least some good model porn :lol:

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You would get crushed on the friday storm.........

I would....but I'm just mentioning one red flag; as I stated in that thread, we don't need ALL conditions met, but that is one strike against a huge event.

H5 looks great....maybe optimal for a bit so of my lat.........I realize this is silly at such an extended lead, but I'm just trying to refine my upper air interpretation skills.

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I would....but I'm just mentioning one red flag; as I stated in that thread, we don't need ALL conditions met, but that is one strike against a huge event.

H5 looks great....maybe optimal for a bit so of my lat.........I realize this is silly at such an extended lead, but I'm just trying to refine my upper air interpretation skills.

Well you knew it would look great at H5, Its still out there in fantasy land but i like the look of the northern strean involvement, Less likely to get hosed up here........

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Well you knew it would look great at H5, Its still out there in fantasy land but i like the look of the northern strean involvement, Less likely to get hosed up here........

I'm going to go out on a limb and a assume that that sw will be discovered to be a little weaker between now and proper assimilation. lol

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