nzucker Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New Year everyone, I don't think I will make it..we have 3 family members sick including me.. talk to you in 2011! Yeah I'm not feeling so well either, so I'm staying in tonight after having a long evening of drinking with friends last night. Happy New Year...Let's hope for a great Winter as 2011 starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 NAM here comes our clipper looking sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy 2011! Here's hoping everyone stays healthy and gets lots of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 hapy new eyar everyone hope it's great year for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 hapy new eyar everyone hope it's great year for all Thank you, Dick Clark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 1/7 -1/8 really standing out as a good threat for a redeveloper/ snow mix scenerio, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 To kick off 2011, BOX is blah on any clipper action and is calmly monitoring what may be the late week storm. NOT SURPRISING AS IT IS OUT AT DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS STORM POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE CALMLY MONITORED.-- End Changed Discussion -- 31.6/28 Make it a good year everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 To kick off 2011, BOX is blah on any clipper action and is calmly monitoring what may be the late week storm. NOT SURPRISING AS IT IS OUT AT DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS STORM POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE FEVERISHLY MONITORED, WITH EXTREME EMOTIONAL HIGHS AND LOWS AS THE MODELS FLIP FLOP AND WE TAKE SEEMINGLY WILD GUESSES AS TO WHICH CAMP IS MORE CORRECT -- End Changed Discussion -- 31.6/28 Make it a good year everyone! Happy 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Looks like Euro still has the clipper. Hard to tell though if it still has it going south of us at H5. If we want snow Tuesday nite we need it to go south of SNE. The Friday storm looks like the real deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Remember that conversation? Enjoy your 50's and bare ground tomorrow..It's the only 50's and bare ground you've got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Whewww!! Party!!!!!! PARTYY!!! HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!! Sounds like you were wasted off 2 beers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Sounds like you were wasted off 2 beers Yeah, I got lit last night, very rare occurence. We had a bunch of friends over for sledding/skiing. We made a huge dinner and partied down like we were back in college. Happy New Year Kevin!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 JB says fasten your seatbelts..We're in it to win it HAPPY NEW YEAR, A SKELETAL GLANCE AT THE REST OF WINTER Okay here is the question.. is the worst of winter over for some places? New England. No. It is here where storms can phased quick enough to cause big problems for one, and you guys were in my mid winter battle zone so most certainly not. In fact while the means many not be that overpoweringly cold ( near normal) the way they get there through the SPRING which I think is going to have revenge on last years warmth, will make you sick of winter before this is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 JB says fasten your seatbelts..We're in it to win it HAPPY NEW YEAR, A SKELETAL GLANCE AT THE REST OF WINTER Okay here is the question.. is the worst of winter over for some places? New England. No. It is here where storms can phased quick enough to cause big problems for one, and you guys were in my mid winter battle zone so most certainly not. In fact while the means many not be that overpoweringly cold ( near normal) the way they get there through the SPRING which I think is going to have revenge on last years warmth, will make you sick of winter before this is over. Well, this has never happened. I'm with you on Friday .. looks like a real good chance at a nice snowfall. I'm on that bus pronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Euro ensembles still have a good look for Friday. The OP run is on board too with that setup. We'll see how it goes the next few days. Given its still like 150 hours out, it may disappear on us. Clipper is so-so, I'd like it to start trending better quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Euro ensembles still have a good look for Friday. The OP run is on board too with that setup. We'll see how it goes the next few days. Given its still like 150 hours out, it may disappear on us. Clipper is so-so, I'd like it to start trending better quickly. As of right now basically just some light snow for Tuesday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 As of right now basically just some light snow for Tuesday night? Did Will really say 2-4 or 3-6" like you posted earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 As of right now basically just some light snow for Tuesday night? Maybe a few flakes as of now. Maybe none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Did Will really say 2-4 or 3-6" like you posted earlier? He wasn't forecasting that. He said it wasn't far off on yesterday's Euro of doing something like that esp if H5 goes south of us..As long as it does we should snow to some degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Euro still says to watch that little clipper system for Jan 4-5...only gives us a few light snow showers still but the 5h is starting to look better and it blows it up just offshore and for E ME. Wouldn't take much more to get that into a 2-4 or 3-5 type event. Did Will really say 2-4 or 3-6" like you posted earlier? Nope. He said a few light snow showers. Based on AFD's from BOX and ALY, looks like that boring earlier version is the forecasted scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Nope. He said a few light snow showers. Based on AFD's from BOX and ALY, looks like that boring earlier version is the forecasted scenario. Happy New Year Mike, you optimistic litle ray of sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 The H5 setup for next Tuesday and Wednesday is too zonal, as the northern stream shortwave moves through the flow is gets sheared, the GFS has a better H5 setup than the NAM. EURO is also too far north still with the surface low. Next Friday looks good for now. I hope this is the real deal, last chance at a decent storm before going to Texas for two months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New Year Mike, you optimistic litle ray of sunshine. Lol--thanks, Pete. You, too. Merely a dispassionate restating of what NWS has said. I'm optimistic for the upcoming pattern. I'm going to be reluctant to latch onto any specific events until pretty near term. Other than that, I'll merely be intrigued and hopeful for some great outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Lol--thanks, Pete. You, too. Merely a dispassionate restating of what NWS has said. I'm optimistic for the upcoming pattern. I'm going to be reluctant to latch onto any specific events until pretty near term. Other than that, I'll merely be intrigued and hopeful for some great outcomes. Update your snowfall sig. December ended up near or a little above average here for snowfall. After this lull in the action I think we're heading back into an active period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Update your snowfall sig. December ended up near or a little above average here for snowfall. After this lull in the action I think we're heading back into an active period. December sucked here. Including the "big one", we wound up with about 10" total. What we have on the ground is pretty pathetic. Looks great in the woods, but on the hill, the wind last week had blown last weeks snow to either bare ground or drift. What's your pleasure (drift for me please). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Euro ensembles still have a good look for Friday. The OP run is on board too with that setup. We'll see how it goes the next few days. Given its still like 150 hours out, it may disappear on us. Clipper is so-so, I'd like it to start trending better quickly. For the general enthusiasts and Mets et all: Major problems with that latter system as of the 00z Jan 1 runs across the board, however. The upshot is that we have plenty enough lead time to morph things more favorably ( So please no grousing - ), but this is what should be looked for in future runs: 1) Less leading gradient in the geopotential medium over the TV. We need to have better erosion of the heights over the northern Gulf, FL and adjacent areas. As is modeled ... there is a slight positive anomaly there that is accentuated tremendously by anomalous blocking up in Canada that intermediately is pinning a strong negative anomaly through southern and southeastern Canada. That configuration is causing too much gradient farther south in the balanced medium of the deep layer troposphere; the result of which means that systems attempting to move through 35-45N belt by 100-70W approximate rectangulum are shearing - this is more technically a negative wave interference (which for you youngins you'll learn what that means in physical terms in the coming torturous academic journey of the doggedly determined to never find a job Meteorological hopeful...) that is effective at both the L/W and S/W length scales. The balanced flow through that region would have been anomalously fast anyway given to such a strong blocking pinning that negative region N as described, but here it is augmented even higher by the fact that for 48 to 72 hour prior to the trough in the deep SW CONUS region was pumping heights up down stream in the lower MV, TV and Gulf regions. 2) More southern stream dynamics needs to come through the western ridge - or perhaps doing so as an over-the-topper intermediate stream S/W like in 1978. What that would do is assist the erosion of the medium as described above. The 00z ECM is pretty close actually at doing this with an over-the-topper. At 144 hours it has a nice area of positive vorticity coming off the Pacific, and this zooms over the top of the ridge, dives ESE through the western lakes and triggers the subsuming of the SPV south. I am not sure folks realize just how close that is to the makings of an event that would rival the last. It's probably a matter of 6DM or so height resistance away from both digging the core of the negative anomaly ideally under our latitude while simultaneously dramatically improving the DPVA as it does so. That is all code for KerBAM BOOMBA BOMB (check page 172 of AMS Glossary of terms). At 6 days away, do we want to hedge our bets that a stronger Pac injection won't take place? No, if you have an iota of intellect you would not. The 06z GFS is actually somewhat similar, but is actually even weaker with the southern and/or intermediate dynamics. There is some present in the run, but by and large the run uses almost entirely the SPV to do everything. That almost reminds me of a March 2001 scenario there, but perhaps displaced farther up the coast. 3) I seem to recall there were a couple of cycles prior to the last historic-for-the-MA-while-wasting-the-time-for-interior-SNE, storm that a wave some 3 days prior to the main show was monitored. In a way, we are in a similar scenario with this will-it-or-won't-it clipper; maybe we can will it into being? Anyway, enough so that my thoughts as I came out of slumber this morning went to repeating historic bomb winter of 2010-2011. I frankly do not believe we are going to ever see a meaningful -AO/-NAO recovery this year, as the AMO and the solar cycle are strong linear correlations and both are aiming downward like porn star on a drugged out 19-year old. Moreover, the -AO overall in the hemisphere is masking the typical La Nina regime; in fact, because the gradients are what they are, we are almost seeing a more Le Nino like deal with all these coastals. But that is supposition.. The point is, the governing parameters do not appear to really have a means to change before this cold season's overall characteristic is in the books. The -AO and La Nina during a negative solar cycle just may appear to be a gem of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 December sucked here. Including the "big one", we wound up with about 10" total. What we have on the ground is pretty pathetic. Looks great in the woods, but on the hill, the wind last week had blown last weeks snow to either bare ground or drift. What's your pleasure (drift for me please). Wow. I saw you got shemped when I looked at the PNS map. Luckily I was on the eastern edge of the heavy band long enough to get into double digits. The snow from the last storm plus the couple inches that was already down have things looking fine here though more is always better. Skied at catamount yesterday and the 24" they got really spiffed up the conditions. Probably the best place to ski in the Berks right now. The ironworkers I've been working with at 2K came up from the valley Thurday and were shocked by the snow on the ground. I geuss there isn't much down around Agawam where they are from. No worries, more on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Nice and an informative post John. Thanks. Keeping it real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Nice and an informative post John. Thanks. Keeping it real at least until I leave for the hot desert weather hell known as Texas fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 12Z GFS....mmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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