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The Pattern Ahead


ORH_wxman

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Could he be thinking of October 4th, 1987 talking about estern NY?

I remember that one well, living in the Albany, NY area.

There were good events in both Nov 1986 and Nov 1987. The Nov 10-12, 1987 was the larger of the two, but Nov 1986 did produce some pretty decent snowfall as well.

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I bet the NJ folks and NYC/PHL/DC are salivating. I am actually because I LOVE the setup. Big snows again within 7-8 days.

Amazing how similar some of these op runs look like last winter...considering enso is a 180 from 12 months ago. You wouldn't even expect to see some of these storms modeled...nevermind come to fruition.

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Day 7-8 has loads of potential for us. What's neat is we already can have decent confidence that the southern stream s/w diving into the southwest will be fairly potent. And the Pac jet will be powering decent northern stream energy into BC. Once the northern stream wave progresses southeast, ridging out west would subsequently build significantly. Only issue is that the Pac jet plows right into the ridge, and keeps it pretty flat. Otherwise, we could be talking about the PV over central Canada dropping south, and BOOM. Very unlikely, but the PV still provides an excellent "pivot point" for the storm, and perhaps could help eject yet another s/w into the system (tr**le phase?)

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Day 7-8 has loads of potential for us. What's neat is we already can have decent confidence that the southern stream s/w diving into the southwest will be fairly potent. And the Pac jet will be powering decent northern stream energy into BC. Once the northern stream wave progresses southeast, ridging out west would subsequently build significantly. Only issue is that the Pac jet plows right into the ridge, and keeps it pretty flat. Otherwise, we could be talking about the PV over central Canada dropping south, and BOOM. Very unlikely, but the PV still provides an excellent "pivot point" for the storm, and perhaps could help eject yet another s/w into the system (tr**le phase?)

Triple bun for you.

The euro ensembles don't want anything to do with the op solution at d7. Keeps this more nrn stream.

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Triple bun for you.

The euro ensembles don't want anything to do with the op solution at d7. Keeps this more nrn stream.

That's fine with me. We can get some great events with mainly northern stream...usually they are bombing out at their best too and not too far south. The GFS ensembles were doing this too.

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I agree. I'd love a nice nrn stream fluff job, coming off of NJ.

Ensemble mean is pretty nice for D6-7...it has it redeveloping S of SNE and then by 168 it has a potent 996 low 100-150 mi E of BOS. There's probably some good weenie solutions in there to cause that.

At any rate, still out in clown range, but at least there is a pretty nice consensus for some type of low pressure near us in that time range. The clipper even looks like it has potential on the ens mean.

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Triple bun for you.

The euro ensembles don't want anything to do with the op solution at d7. Keeps this more nrn stream.

:lol: I only glanced at the last couple of op runs. I'll take a gander at the ensembles in a minute, but I do think we'll see the southern stream get involved with this one.

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Ensemble mean is pretty nice for D6-7...it has it redeveloping S of SNE and then by 168 it has a potent 996 low 100-150 mi E of BOS. There's probably some good weenie solutions in there to cause that.

At any rate, still out in clown range, but at least there is a pretty nice consensus for some type of low pressure near us in that time range. The clipper even looks like it has potential on the ens mean.

Yeah, there seems to be a few weenie members, just looking at 850t spaghetti. I think the last real good low that moved off a NJ and gave us a good dumping was 12/31/08. I miss those.

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The big storm Sunday/Monday was nice in that it was kind of a like a long awaited f*ck. You're slaked....and only mildly curious. Now that curiosity is building but true weenie frenzy will be less likely now that the itch has been scratched....at least till the 18Z run finishes...

My family due back into town within the hour. I'm cooking a turkey...did my own recipe (seat of the pants) for stuffing. I think it's a winner!

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Yeah, there seems to be a few weenie members, just looking at 850t spaghetti. I think the last real good low that moved off a NJ and gave us a good dumping was 12/31/08. I miss those.

I loved that storm!!

Classic NW trend over a couple days before the storm. I got stuck in a band for a few hours, with MASSIVE dendrites. Easily had >20:1 ratios. I was measuring >3 in/hr for a couple of hours, and no one believed me. The stuff was so fluffed up though. I was able to sweep 6" of snow LOL. The entire storm lasted only about 4 to 5 hours. Ended up just under 10" IIRC.

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The big storm Sunday/Monday was nice in that it was kind of a like a long awaited f*ck. You're slaked....and only mildly curious. Now that curiosity is building but true weenie frenzy will be less likely now that the itch has been scratched....at least till the 18Z run finishes...

My family due back into town within the hour. I'm cooking a turkey...did my own recipe (seat of the pants) for stuffing. I think it's a winner!

heavy heavy 'rea upcoming

I need my itch scratched much bigger than earlier this week, but, it is only December

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heavy heavy 'rea upcoming

I need my itch scratched much bigger than earlier this week, but, it is only December

Nope...I can cook. Just lack the time. My wife has cooked professionally as a personal chef. So you can imagine we eat well. I told her that she needs to do the roasted veggies when she comes home...I can't touch her ability there. I screwed up and forgot to put the potatoes into the pan until the last half hour of heavy cooking so that may be a fly in the ung...

Big snows coming back. When all is said and done. you will rack up some big totals.

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Ensemble mean is pretty nice for D6-7...it has it redeveloping S of SNE and then by 168 it has a potent 996 low 100-150 mi E of BOS. There's probably some good weenie solutions in there to cause that.

At any rate, still out in clown range, but at least there is a pretty nice consensus for some type of low pressure near us in that time range. The clipper even looks like it has potential on the ens mean.

to bad it will be warn and rain :banned:

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Sup gang

Sittin here at flatbreads in n conway

Yummy pizza and beer after an awesome day of tubing and mountain coaster at cranmore

looks good from what I've read today for storm potential inthe next 4 to 10 days

See yas all on Sunday for some storm tracking

Low 30s here

Love that place. Heavy heavy pizza and hippies

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The big storm Sunday/Monday was nice in that it was kind of a like a long awaited f*ck. You're slaked....and only mildly curious. Now that curiosity is building but true weenie frenzy will be less likely now that the itch has been scratched....at least till the 18Z run finishes...

My family due back into town within the hour. I'm cooking a turkey...did my own recipe (seat of the pants) for stuffing. I think it's a winner!

laugh.giflaugh.gif

That was a good storm. I wish I enjoyed it at home, but a nice surprise to come home to. Then there is the shoveling. axesmiley.png

The PV ain't going anywhere, if the euro ensembles are right. Huge ridge north of AK will keep it from slipping to the other side of North Pole. I would think having the axis into the Midwest would be a good thing overall, for sne. Details obviously to be determined.

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