The Pattern Ahead

[Logan11]

Remember there was a bomb in early October 1987 also that buried parts of ENY/WNE so you have two major systems that Fall....

Are there any stats on the November 1987 snowstorm? I remember waking up in the middle of the night absolutely shocked to see how much snow was on the ground and how heavy it was falling. Once the snow stopped the morning after Veterans Day the temperature never dipped below freezing and the next day temps were in the 50s.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro still says to watch that little clipper system for Jan 4-5...only gives us a few light snow showers still but the 5h is starting to look better and it blows it up just offshore and for E ME. Wouldn't take much more to get that into a 2-4 or 3-5 type event.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro still says to watch that little clipper system for Jan 4-5...only gives us a few light snow showers still but the 5h is starting to look better and it blows it up just offshore and for E ME. Wouldn't take much more to get that into a 2-4 or 3-5 type event.

Is that the event Phil and Scooter were discussing?

[CoastalWx]

Is that the event Phil and Scooter were discussing?

Yes, we discussed that, and the one towards d7, which the euro wants to bomb..lol.

[dryslot]

Yes, we discussed that, and the one towards d7, which the euro wants to bomb..lol.

Yup, Looks like it could get interesting on day 5 and 7 on the Euro..........

[CoastalWx]

LOL, the euro is another dumping for NJ, but close to giving sne decent snows.

[ORH_wxman]

LOL, the euro is another dumping for NJ, but close to giving sne decent snows.

Squashes it just south of us...but its completely a phase type issue...that back s/w is a bit of a kicker. I like the pattern of where the PV is...that should tend to want to give us some good chances.

[Typhoon Tip]

Are there any stats on the November 1987 snowstorm? I remember waking up in the middle of the night absolutely shocked to see how much snow was on the ground and how heavy it was falling. Once the snow stopped the morning after Veterans Day the temperature never dipped below freezing and the next day temps were in the 50s.

I am not entirely sure it was 1987... I remember Harv' coming on air the eve of a day where it was in the low 50s, and he said something like, "despite being 53 for a high today, I feel enough cold will trickle down from the north and aloft to change this to snow" - and there was a winter storm watch also recently issued by KTAN.

I also remember watching the weather channel earlier that afternoon and they were talking about thunder snow reported in Cleveland, and thinking/wondering what that would mean on the 6' clock weather reports - well, got my answer.

I awoke at 4:30 to a thunder rumble, and the sound of gritty snow buffeting my bedroom window. I crept down the stairs and flipped on the backyard flood light and saw an immense spectacle of sideways flowing snow flakes in dense quantities. I donned in boots and winter wears and headed down the street in those predawn hours. vip-vip, BOOM, another lightning and thunder blast went off, and the snow was sheeting in the street lamps. I remember the snow particles were a combination of smaller size dendrite aggregates mixed with pellets. I only had 2-3 inches at that point, so this storm was both young and one that was a dynamical doozy to be doing that in such short order. My guess is we started as rain around midnight or 1am, then it got windy and cold in a flash and flipped everything to winter with extreme rapidity.

I scurried back up the street and inside, and figured I'd better crash again lest school not be canceled and fearing being tired. I got up around 7am and it was still snowing and blowing lightly, but we had like 9-11" or so, and the roads were not really plowed. It came on too fast, too hard. We did get a snow day out of the deal. It was in the mid 30s and sunny by early afternoon, and the roads were just wet by that time of the day. I remember thinking that the snow day probably really wasn't required and a delayed start probably would have sufficed. Being the way that I am ... I kind of dreaded it a little, because I thought it would mean the next time they wouldn't close school because they'd realized they were snookered a little on the last event that "looked worse than it was"... Ha ha. I hadn't yet realized that areas a bit E and SE of me had significantly more.

[Ginx snewx]

Yup, Looks like it could get interesting on day 5 and 7 on the Euro..........

AWT not boring

[Damage In Tolland]

I am not entirely sure it was 1987... I remember Harv' coming on air the eve of a day where it was in the low 50s, and he said something like, "despite being 53 for a high today, I feel enough cold will trickle down from the north and aloft to change this to snow" - and there was a winter storm watch also recently issued by KTAN.

I also remember watching the weather channel earlier that afternoon and they were talking about thunder snow reported in Cleveland, and thinking/wondering what that would mean on the 6' clock weather reports - well, go my answer.

I awoke at 4:30 to a thunder rumble, and the sound of gritty snow buffeting my bedroom window. I crept down the stairs and flipped on the backyard flood light and saw an immense spectacle of sideways flowing snow flakes in dense quantities. I donned in boots and winter wears and headed down the street in those predawn hours. vip-vip, BOOM, another lightning and thunder blast went off, and the snow was sheeting in the street lamps. I remember the snow particles were a combination of smaller size dendrite aggregates mixed with pellets. I only had 2-3 inches at that point, so this storm was both young and one that was a dynamical doozy to be doing that in such short order. My guess is we started as rain around midnight or 1am, then it got windy and cold in a flash and flipped everything to winter with extreme rapidity.

I scurried back up the street and inside, and figured I'd better crash again lest school not be canceled and fearing being tired. I got up around 7am and it was still snowing and blowing lightly, but we had like 9-11" or so, and the roads were not really plowed. It came on too fast, too hard. We did get a snow day out of the deal. It was in the mid 30s and sunny by early afternoon, and the roads were just wet by that time of the day. I remember thinking that the snow day probably really wasn't required and a delayed start probably would have sufficed. Being the way that I am ... I kind of dreaded it a little, because I thought it would mean the next time they wouldn't close school because they'd realized they were snookered a little on the last event that "looked worse than it was"... Ha ha. I hadn't yet realized that areas a bit E and SE of me had significantly more.

[CoastalWx]

Squashes it just south of us...but its completely a phase type issue...that back s/w is a bit of a kicker. I like the pattern of where the PV is...that should tend to want to give us some good chances.

It's got one s/w after another going underneath us. Either we get little disturbances of light snow, or perhaps it can keep some kind of a cyclonic circulation going with impulses of waa coming from the northeast.

[Ginx snewx]

It's got one s/w after another going underneath us. Either we get little disturbances of light snow, or perhaps it can keep some kind of a cyclonic circulation going with impulses of waa coming from the northeast.

Yesterdays runs had this in SC Ga, last night the MA, today NJ, kinda like the trend, good to see, 975 again geez.

[Typhoon Tip]

LOL, the euro is another dumping for NJ, but close to giving sne decent snows.

It's really hard to determine WHAT is going on... every model has it's own idea....But, D6-7 seems to be an early attempt at a focus.

I agree with Will that the issue on this Euro run...all of them actually, is 'how much phasing' will take place.

Personally, anytime we see an NAO block on the move westward and southern stream timed well near 35N, I get a little concerned. Those types of evolutions can sometimes subsume from the N to a historical accord.

[Typhoon Tip]

man, i was just thinking about lunch and how good a crout-dog would be. Mmmm crout dog.

[ORH_wxman]

Yesterdays runs had this in SC Ga, last night the MA, today NJ, kinda like the trend, good to see, 975 again geez.

By Monday, maybe we can start to figure out what its going to do (if anything at all). I'd def watch the clipper in the meantime...the vortmax is tracking just S of us which is ideal for those little clipper surprises. Just need to sharpen the downstream ridging a shade more and we got a little event on our hands.

[dryslot]

AWT not boring

lol......Not here yet, Pretty easy shoveling potential......

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm with Will. I like the clipper on Tuesday..If that thing goes south of us like that it's gonna snow ..How many times have we seen these setups that go south help drop snow.Too many to count

[CoastalWx]

I'm with Will. I like the clipper on Tuesday..If that thing goes south of us like that it's gonna snow ..How many times have we seen these setups that go south help drop snow.Too many to count

Yeah it looks nice, and trending ever so better.

[ORH_wxman]

There's also a ton of uncertainty with the D7 system...what s/ws are significant and which ones aren't. A lot of the GFS ensembles don't have much coming out of the gulf and turn the system into a Miller B hit for us. The Euro obviously has a southern s/w keyed in and tries to bring a Miller A up the coast.

We just have no clue how it will shake out yet, but there is definitely a good setup for some type of cyclogensis in that time frame.

The clipper might be more worth watching given its not in clown fantasy land still. Hopefully we can get that one to trend into a little advisory type event.

[dryslot]

Yeah it looks nice, and trending ever so better.

I would welcome a clipper, End of the euro run shows another cutter it seems.......

[weathafella]

I bet the NJ folks and NYC/PHL/DC are salivating. I am actually because I LOVE the setup. Big snows again within 7-8 days.

[stormman]

I bet the NJ folks and NYC/PHL/DC are salivating. I am actually because I LOVE the setup. Big snows again within 7-8 days.

I just worried cause this is the first euro run to show a hit into the philly area, so im concerned it may be ejecting too soon.

[Organizing Low]

i like the clipper

looks like a decent clipper its been a while

[Ginx snewx]

I would welcome a clipper, End of the euro run shows another cutter it seems.......

Ran the loops of 5h and 8h ,looks to be digging SE rather than cutting but la la land, anyway with -16 8 h air rocking towards + 16 in the GOM that's a nuc explosion waiting to happen, huge thermocline.

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like day 10 that cold high in Quebec would help redevelop whatever tried to cut..that's still a fairly cold setup at day 10

[Typhoon Tip]

Remember there was a bomb in early October 1987 also that buried parts of ENY/WNE so you have two major systems that Fall....

Correction, it was actually 1986... The early morning hours of November 19 to be precised... .Here is the synopsis below:

Then, 24 hour later, the classic NJ Model bomb ...well, quasi bomb. Either way it dumped a lot of snow over SE Mass and didn't do so bad back WNW along the Mohawk Trail.

Again, snow totals were impressive for doing so in short period of time. As well, numerous thunderstorms accompanied in CT/RI ...SE and central Massachusetts.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

Euro still says to watch that little clipper system for Jan 4-5...only gives us a few light snow showers still but the 5h is starting to look better and it blows it up just offshore and for E ME. Wouldn't take much more to get that into a 2-4 or 3-5 type event.

Yeah Will, anytime the vort max can trend to the south of the region it is mostly for the better. Clippers have a way of bringing big surprises for Cape Cod, MA. I also need a good SECS or MECS before I go to San Antonio, TX for USAF basic training on the 11th of JAN. Hopefully we can get that storm on the EURO a little further northwest, but I don't like where the low intensifies the most, right off the SE Coast. I would rather see it intensifying rapidly south of us and even to the southeast of the region so we can get the great comma head and continued rotating bands of heavy snow from the storm center. Still about 7days out and the clipper just needs better Atlantic ridging and the 50/50 low to be located a tad further north.

[Organizing Low]

the GEM is pretty similar to the euro in terms of has both threats

clearly this week upcoming will be trackable.

[dryslot]

Ran the loops of 5h and 8h ,looks to be digging SE rather than cutting but la la land, anyway with -16 8 h air rocking towards + 16 in the GOM that's a nuc explosion waiting to happen, huge thermocline.

Not to concerend being day 10 Just looked at the surface, The clipper has my attention, We usually make out well in these and Miller B's.........

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm with Will. I like the clipper on Tuesday..If that thing goes south of us like that it's gonna snow ..How many times have we seen these setups that go south help drop snow.Too many to count

Make that 3 of us... I just put together a collage of charts exemplifying wonderfully a surprise that resulted once from one of these flat but potent open waves. The "little critters that bite" was a paper written by a Prof and Suny Albany that I got to see him speak about at the NE Storm conference back in 1998.... reminds of that discussion.

Not a declaration of any kind, but something to watch as ...whatever happens nearing D7 irons out.