The Pattern Ahead

[CoastalWx]

Snowy Friday next week?

A nice fluff job for some.

[weathafella]

looks to be a 2 to 5 type deal

Bet it's more in the end.

[ineedsnow]

ok maybe 6 if someone gets lucky!

Bet it's more in the end.

[weathafella]

ok maybe 6 if someone gets lucky!

It all adds up. For someone (me) who called for 71 in Boston, we need the 2-4s, 3-6s, and 1-3s just as much as the big boys.

[Ginx snewx]

It all adds up. For someone (me) who called for 71 in Boston, we need the 2-4s, 3-6s, and 1-3s just as much as the big boys.

Nice!, still amazed at the IMBY ism in the pedestrian crowd.

[weathafella]

Well if the GFS and its enembles are correct, Jan will go down as a damned cold month it would seem. The hits keep on coming.

[mahk_webstah]

oh and did I also say that once the triple phaser passes we get a reload?

[Typhoon Tip]

There's our d7 miller b on the gfs. A NJ TIP model low too.

Yes, intriguing similarity to the 00z GGEM regarding that ...

Been awhile since a NJ low bombed while progressively moving out underneath... The twin hits of Dec 1997 (or wast that '96) were the last I recall.. Both events deepened and did so more than predicted, and gave like 9" generally on the first, followed some 24 hours later rarely by a 12"er for most.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'll give hand jobs to some

[MaineJayhawk]

There's our d7 miller b on the gfs. A NJ TIP model low too.

Nice. I was waiting for something to materialize next week.

[CoastalWx]

Is the exposed grass greening up yet?

[moneypitmike]

I only mention it, because that's what it shows. Maybe a refresher for some. This may be our only + temp departures for quite some time. A couple of days in the 40's isn't all that bad.

I understand--I was making a joke.

Meanwhile, where's my sun block?

37.4/27 at noon.

[CoastalWx]

Even the gfs ensembles have the d7 low. Pretty nice signal for ensembles.

[Typhoon Tip]

Somewhere there is an old timer rocking away in the laurels of their worldly decades of survival, nary a care of the science in such matters ...he/she thinks: first it gets warm, then it gets cold - BOOM

[dryslot]

I was amazed at dry slots post in the NNE thread where he said boring pattern. Man it looks awesome, I see the there possibilities you points out.

Well, Until there are storms that actually are modeled that shows hits up here it is boring, Pattern may be there for storms to develop but in the short term all there is is signals and nothing imeninent, Unless everyone thinks cold and dry is a great pattern.....

[Typhoon Tip]

Even the gfs ensembles have the d7 low. Pretty nice signal for ensembles.

Again, the 00z GGEM was onto this... At first I tossed it, but I did as an after thought give a nod to the fact that the NOA changes are already under way by then.

CISCO tossed the 00z UKMET ideas for D5-6, but I think the model is in fact tracking the same system but is just too fast with it.

12z run of these two and the Euro.... oh gosh, are we already doing this again?

[CoastalWx]

Again, the 00z GGEM was onto this... At first I tossed it, but I did as an after thought give a nod to the fact that the NOA changes are already under way by then.

CISCO tossed the 00z UKMET ideas for D5-6, but I think the model is in fact tracking the same system but is just too fast with it.

12z run of these two and the Euro.... oh gosh, are we already doing this again?

Yeah I saw the Canadian. We'll see what the 12z GGEM has to say.

Hey, at least we have something on the horizon...lol.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah I saw the Canadian. We'll see what the 12z GGEM has to say.

Hey, at least we have something on the horizon...lol.

Amen!

I tell you what ...I think I am changing the profile of my personal likes and dislikes with the big bomb scenarios as I get older and more existentially aware of the big picture. To put it simply, big storms do not tend to repeat. To take that further, big storms not only tend not to repeat, they tend to take out all the little guys with them such that nothing can happen ...sometimes for months that has been the case.

It seems the atmosphere can only afford one big daddy storm, and then it takes a coon's age to charge up the system again. I'm not sure exactly why that is.

I guess right off the top of my head, the bigger events are perhaps rooted in the larger synoptic scales ...even perhaps on a hemispheric scale. Maybe the hemisphere enters state that positively feeds back on the subset domains, which are by chance also feeding positively back on the subset domains relative to them; and so on down such that by the time we reach the cyclogenic scale the entire system was uniquely structured in favor of the event. With all that backing, that means there was a gargantuan Planetary energy being inserted into the storm so of course you end up with a 958mb white hurricane with enough integrated storm energy to figuratively wipe the EC off the map.

I like that actually... hmm.

But then again, storms can bomb and be more transient, not necessarily requiring all that feed. 1993 super storm - as it was called - is a perfect example of an event that was truly superimposed positively amid all spectra of scales in the atmosphere. Whereas, and even like Nov 1987, when a NJ-modeled low bombed and brought 12-18" to SE Mass in the we hours of circa morning that month was far more locally supportive. I had experienced thunder snow in LE squalls in western Michigan growing up, but that system in 1987 was the first time I saw lightning during a synoptic system. Flat wave with 40 vort max in the OV went nuts when it hit the NJ shore.

I just don't like entering the extended ennui that is caused by the single event stablization of the whole atmosphere type of post storm circumstance. I think I rather the repetitive buck shot of manageable events that keep things interesting.

[Damage In Tolland]

Is the exposed grass greening up yet?

Nothing but a few piles left for you after this disaster. Grass showing by morning?

[Ginx snewx]

Tip 78 debunks your two storm theory as well as the three KU storms in the MA last winter

[ORH_wxman]

Tip 78 debunks your two storm theory as well as the three KU storms in the MA last winter

Jan 3-4, 1996 and then the blizzard of '96 on Jan 6-8, 1996 did it too. We got hammered by a more Miller B type system (12"+ common across the region) on Jan 3-4 and then just a few days later, the huge blizzard crawled up the coast.

Also, if you recall, just a couple days after the Jan 2005 blizzard...a potent clipper redeveloped into a mini Miller B and dumped another 6-10 inches across a lot of eastern SNE...an event that was fairly forgettable due to the magnitude of the blizzard just 2-3 days prior.

[Ginx snewx]

Jan 3-4, 1996 and then the blizzard of '96 on Jan 6-8, 1996 did it too. We got hammered by a more Miller B type system (12"+ common across the region) on Jan 3-4 and then just a few days later, the huge blizzard crawled up the coast.

Also, if you recall, just a couple days after the Jan 2005 blizzard...a potent clipper redeveloped into a mini Miller B and dumped another 6-10 inches across a lot of eastern SNE...an event that was fairly forgettable due to the magnitude of the blizzard just 2-3 days prior.

I understand his point but man how many sub 980 were there last year, seemed to be the norm.

[Typhoon Tip]

Tip 78 debunks your two storm theory as well as the three KU storms in the MA last winter

I did consider last year in the M/A but... "debunks" I think is too strong a term -

The three KU storms last winter did not happen right on top of one another. It was probably more that the atmosphere was particularly efficient at reloading the rifle between each one, but there was still some time for that to happen.

78 was just unusual all around, but where I was in Michigan, there was no additional events of even moderate consequence after the Cleveland Super Bomb took place for the remainder of that cold season. Harvey Leonard told me once that after that Feb '78 event the winter's storm production et al was significantly in short coming, too. In fact, I remember the 10 straight sunny days after that Cleveland Bomb, and even at that young age I recall wondering if it would snow again that year ... for lack of better word "feeling" like it would not because it made sense that it would not.

[Typhoon Tip]

Jan 3-4, 1996 and then the blizzard of '96 on Jan 6-8, 1996 did it too. We got hammered by a more Miller B type system (12"+ common across the region) on Jan 3-4 and then just a few days later, the huge blizzard crawled up the coast.

Also, if you recall, just a couple days after the Jan 2005 blizzard...a potent clipper redeveloped into a mini Miller B and dumped another 6-10 inches across a lot of eastern SNE...an event that was fairly forgettable due to the magnitude of the blizzard just 2-3 days prior.

Well, let's be fair: If you folks bothered to read what I originally wrote on the subject matter - I more than just intimated that systems controlled more at local spatial scales do not appear as effected. I even mentioned an example where that is true, geez.

I was speaking primarily about certain systems that are well teleconnected at all scales; post those events, the atmosphere tends to go through an extended period of stablization/lack of storm production. Hell, we're in one now! Maybe a storm some 7 or 10 additional days down the road qualifies as an extended period?

[ORH_wxman]

Well, let's be fair: If you folks bothered to read what I originally wrote on the subject matter - I more than just intimated that systems controlled more at local spatial scales do not appear as effected. I even mentioned an example where that is true, geez.

I was speaking primarily about certain systems that are well teleconnected at all scales; post those events, the atmosphere tends to go through an extended period of stablization/lack of storm production.

Well it does make sense on a general scale, but I think its a bit overrated personally. There are a lot of times it doesn't work. If you have a double or triple phasing bomb that completely changes the NAO regime, then I think it would tend to make a tad more sense as you totally change the orientation of the wavelengths. But we've seen plenty of bombs that had events just days later too...Jan '05, Mar '01, Jan '96, Jan '78, Mar '58, Mar '56, etc.

Sometimes the pattern gets into a repetitive streak where after each storm its just a "reload" and not a total cleansing of the pattern. We've all seen winters where it just reloads into the same pattern and we get another significant event not too long after the last one...then we've seen winters where the pattern is totally changed after a big storm and we get a month of sunny and chilly weather (or warm) ala Feb '78.

[HarveyLeonardFan]

Amen!

I tell you what ...I think I am changing the profile of my personal likes and dislikes with the big bomb scenarios as I get older and more existentially aware of the big picture. To put it simply, big storms do not tend to repeat. To take that further, big storms not only tend not to repeat, they tend to take out all the little guys with them such that nothing can happen ...sometimes for months that has been the case.

It seems the atmosphere can only afford one big daddy storm, and then it takes a coon's age to charge up the system again. I'm not sure exactly why that is.

I guess right off the top of my head, the bigger events are perhaps rooted in the larger synoptic scales ...even perhaps on a hemispheric scale. Maybe the hemisphere enters state that positively feeds back on the subset domains, which are by chance also feeding positively back on the subset domains relative to them; and so on down such that by the time we reach the cyclogenic scale the entire system was uniquely structured in favor of the event. With all that backing, that means there was a gargantuan Planetary energy being inserted into the storm so of course you end up with a 958mb white hurricane with enough integrated storm energy to figuratively wipe the EC off the map.

I like that actually... hmm.

But then again, storms can bomb and be more transient, not necessarily requiring all that feed. 1993 super storm - as it was called - is a perfect example of an event that was truly superimposed positively amid all spectra of scales in the atmosphere. Whereas, and even like Nov 1987, when a NJ-modeled low bombed and brought 12-18" to SE Mass in the we hours of circa morning that month was far more locally supportive. I had experienced thunder snow in LE squalls in western Michigan growing up, but that system in 1987 was the first time I saw lightning during a synoptic system. Flat wave with 40 vort max in the OV went nuts when it hit the NJ shore.

I just don't like entering the extended ennui that is caused by the single event stablization of the whole atmosphere type of post storm circumstance. I think I rather the repetitive buck shot of manageable events that keep things interesting.

Are there any stats on the November 1987 snowstorm? I remember waking up in the middle of the night absolutely shocked to see how much snow was on the ground and how heavy it was falling. Once the snow stopped the morning after Veterans Day the temperature never dipped below freezing and the next day temps were in the 50s.

[ChrisM]

Nothing but a few piles left for you after this disaster. Grass showing by morning?

I have grass showing, and also still 4' drifts. Not everyone only got 6"...maybe all melting for you and my apartment

[Damage In Tolland]

I have grass showing, and also still 4' drifts. Not everyone only got 6"...maybe all melting for you and my apartment

I got well more than 6..Even those that got 12+ will lose most of it

[Logan11]

I really would prefer to just have some moderate overunning events etc. to rebuild some general snowpack and keep things interesting. I hate to fixate on one potential (7-10 days days out) again only to have it jackpot one or two lucky areas and leave the rest of us with several inches of snow etc. Too much time wasted with too little prospect of positive returns in ones given locality.

Last winter how much time was spent tracking potential coastal storms to no avail... ..yes one worked out magnificently here, but out of 17 weeks of meteorological winter about 13 of them lacked interesting snow events.

So far I guess everyone blew it with their idea that we would have numerous SW flow events this winter.

Well, let's be fair: If you folks bothered to read what I originally wrote on the subject matter - I more than just intimated that systems controlled more at local spatial scales do not appear as effected. I even mentioned an example where that is true, geez.

I was speaking primarily about certain systems that are well teleconnected at all scales; post those events, the atmosphere tends to go through an extended period of stablization/lack of storm production. Hell, we're in one now! Maybe a storm some 7 or 10 additional days down the road qualifies as an extended period?

[ChrisM]

I got well more than 6..Even those that got 12+ will lose most of it

well I guess instead of arguing we'll just have to see