The Pattern Ahead

[CoastalWx]

It's a real torch when a dusting becomes worthy of a mention.

I only mention it, because that's what it shows. Maybe a refresher for some. This may be our only + temp departures for quite some time. A couple of days in the 40's isn't all that bad.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I only mention it, because that's what it shows. Maybe a refresher for some. This may be our only + temp departures for quite some time. A couple of days in the 40's isn't all that bad.

Euro has a pretty decent vm going right over sne...if we could manage any semblance of waa out ahead of it we could probably pull off some nice light snows. As of now...not modeled that way but worth watching.

[CoastalWx]

Euro has a pretty decent vm going right over sne...if we could manage any semblance of waa out ahead of it we could probably pull off some nice light snows. As of now...not modeled that way but worth watching.

Yeah it seems conducive for a little -sn. It's a cold airmass over us, so if the low can get its feet wet and get some srly flow going at 850 or so, could see a little light snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

I just continue to be impressed with the overall look of the pattern. Nevermind what the outcome has been, this is pretty remarkable.

I saw that some of the gfs ensembles look like the euro at d7, but not many want to bite at the d10 threat. I don't know if you saw, but the euro also offers some very light snow om Tuesday night with a weak system diving ese.

The overall wintry appeal of the pattern is outstanding! I did notice that small RH passage with that weak impulse, but I am being greedy and only focusing on the big ticket items

Anyway, I just reviewed the other data sources. There certainly is a decent signal coming from the CPC and now the CDC (they finally updated there products), for another interval of cyclogen around the eastern U.S. during the D7-10.

The Euro is/was as discussed...

The Canadian wants to do it closer to the 7th, with weird hyper jet max swinging around an impressive -3 or -4SD SPV - eh, that's harder to swallow. The latter ECM uses a Pac injection through the western quasi-PNAP ridge closer to the 10D. I suppose the period in question should see a relaxed or relaxing mid-level velocity over the deep south and FL because the NAO is rising (as also signaled by the west retrograde as discussed), and that offers better digging potential as whole, so neither idea can be discounted entirely.

The deterministic GFS has no clue at the moment, but seeing as a half the members at least hint at the ECM that usually means a system lurks in the genetics of the pattern ...just waiting for some trigger to bring it physically presented.

Note: None of this is intended for deterministic use. This is purely pattern recognition and identifying what spatial-temporal carries the higher probability.

[Ginx snewx]

The overall wintry appeal of the pattern is outstanding! I did notice that small RH passage with that weak impulse, but I am being greedy and only focusing on the big ticket items

Anyway, I just reviewed the other data sources. There certainly is a decent signal coming from the CPC and now the CDC (they finally updated there products), for another interval of cyclogen around the eastern U.S. during the D7-10.

The Euro is/was as discussed...

The Canadian wants to do it closer to the 7th, with weird hyper jet max swinging around an impressive -3 or -4SD SPV - eh, that's harder to swallow. The latter ECM uses a Pac injection through the western quasi-PNAP ridge closer to the 10D. I suppose the period in question should see a relaxed or relaxing mid-level velocity over the deep south and FL because the NAO is rising (as also signaled by the west retrograde as discussed), and that offers better digging potential as whole, so neither idea can be discounted entirely.

The deterministic GFS has no clue at the moment, but seeing as a half the members at least hint at the ECM that usually means a system lurks in the genetics of the pattern ...just waiting for some trigger to bring it physically presented.

Note: None of this is intended for deterministic use. This is purely pattern recognition and identifying what spatial-temporal carries the higher probability.

IE not boring

[weathafella]

I'll pass on a 93-94 redux......coast jackot after coast jackpot, which left me in shaft valley, then elevations kicked my azz in the latter portion of the season.

I was a relative snow hole....nothing but mod events and obnoxiously arctic air.

92-93 OTH....

BTW....vote Blizz!

http://www.americanw...pionship-round/

I think you sort of got screwed in the big early Jan KU and southern areas plus NYC jackpotted in the Feb storm. But overall, 6-10 after 6-10 after 6-10 does not suck to me. No blockbusters but constant and building to deep snowpack. Agree on the cold....one night I came home, kept my coat on, and turned the thermostat up to 80. It was ridiculously cold..

What was your total that winter?

[weathafella]

IE not boring

"Pedestrian"

[mahk_webstah]

The euro offers a miller b redeveloper around D7, then a big MIller A slides ots at d10. The pattern features a big NAO ridge retrograding west again, and a big AK ridge developing at the end of the period.

A big Alaska ridge would be new for this winter yes? Wasn't the G of A low causing us problems? Does a big Alaska ridge mean an Aleutian low? And a split flow?

I wonder what happens after the Greenland Block retrogrades? I suppose that could cause a cutter or two but perhaps that allows for a SWFE?

Lotsa questions but its my birthday so I feel entitled....

[Typhoon Tip]

"Pedestrian"

Wow, you're really hung up on that, a Jer'?

....You should drop it. Fact of the matter is, the snow totals and total impact (wind//snow etc) from that event for the vast majority of SNE was entirely average and forgettable. That cannot be denied of refuted from fact.

We are not part of NJ or NYC where that was obviously not the case. People takes this crap so (insane) personal that they fail to understand the realism in observation and instead chose to actually be offended that someone dare hurt the feelings of their storm -

you guys are nuts.

[weathafella]

Wow, you're really hung up on that, a Jer'?

....You should drop it. Fact of the matter is, the snow totals and total impact (wind//snow etc) from that event for the vast majority of SNE was entirely average and forgettable. That cannot be denied of refuted from fact.

We are not part of NJ or NYC where that was obviously not the case. People takes this crap so (insane) personal that they fail to understand the realism in observation and instead chose to actually be offended that someone dare hurt the feelings of their storm -

you guys are nuts.

I'm just messin' with you....wasn't trying to give you a hard time. Glad I'm not in Scituate

[weathafella]

A big Alaska ridge would be new for this winter yes? Wasn't the G of A low causing us problems? Does a big Alaska ridge mean an Aleutian low? And a split flow?

I wonder what happens after the Greenland Block retrogrades? I suppose that could cause a cutter or two but perhaps that allows for a SWFE?

Lotsa questions but its my birthday so I feel entitled....

Happy Birthday....your dad's exemption at the last minute!

[Damage In Tolland]

Wow, you're really hung up on that, a Jer'?

....You should drop it. Fact of the matter is, the snow totals and total impact (wind//snow etc) from that event for the vast majority of SNE was entirely average and forgettable. That cannot be denied of refuted from fact.

We are not part of NJ or NYC where that was obviously not the case. People takes this crap so (insane) personal that they fail to understand the realism in observation and instead chose to actually be offended that someone dare hurt the feelings of their storm -

you guys are nuts.

[Tropopause_Fold]

[mahk_webstah]

Happy Birthday....your dad's exemption at the last minute!

Thank you. My mother was at the hairdresser getting ready for a party and I apparently started poking around and flooded the hairdresser chair.

[CoastalWx]

A big Alaska ridge would be new for this winter yes? Wasn't the G of A low causing us problems? Does a big Alaska ridge mean an Aleutian low? And a split flow?

I wonder what happens after the Greenland Block retrogrades? I suppose that could cause a cutter or two but perhaps that allows for a SWFE?

Lotsa questions but its my birthday so I feel entitled....

No GOA low after d10 per ensembles. Models have the Greenland ridge retrograding and slowly weakening, while ridging develops over the Aleutians and most of AK...into the North Pole. Eventually, a piece of the ridge breaks off and sits there near the North Pole. I would think this setup could lead to a very cold pattern, because the polar vortex can no longer find a new home on the other side of the pole. It's almost squeezed between the weakening -nao and now this big ridge on the north slopes of AK. The weakening -NAO ridge could allow for more cold to move se into the US as well since it won't deflect the cold into western Canada. Cross polar flow. I notice the euro ensembles want to bring the trough into the Plains states at the end of the period. With the ridge up on the north slopes of AK, seems like any s/w could surely amplify as it dives se into the US and under the Plains trough. We don't want the trough too far west, but very interesting to see modeled.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Wow, you're really hung up on that, a Jer'?

....You should drop it. Fact of the matter is, the snow totals and total impact (wind//snow etc) from that event for the vast majority of SNE was entirely average and forgettable. That cannot be denied of refuted from fact.

We are not part of NJ or NYC where that was obviously not the case. People takes this crap so (insane) personal that they fail to understand the realism in observation and instead chose to actually be offended that someone dare hurt the feelings of their storm -

you guys are nuts.

well...it gusted to hurricane force and dumped 18" in parts of the area.

that was probably one of the bigger widespread wind events for SNE on a whole in quite some time.

[CoastalWx]

Thank you. My mother was at the hairdresser getting ready for a party and I apparently started poking around and flooded the hairdresser chair.

Happy Birthday to you as well.

[Damage In Tolland]

Thank you. My mother was at the hairdresser getting ready for a party and I apparently started poking around and flooded the hairdresser chair.

Happy birthday. Another year ends on a torch ..a new year begins with a torch soon to be followed with more winter

[CoastalWx]

Happy birthday. Another year ends on a torch ..a new year begins with a torch soon to be followed with more winter

It's nice to see a month that is solidly below normal.

[Damage In Tolland]

Remeber the other day when Bostonwx said our warmest days during the torch would have one day in the low 40's..and I said I'd remind him of our discussion..

I'm reminding him

[mahk_webstah]

No GOA low after d10 per ensembles. Models have the Greenland ridge retrograding and slowly weakening, while ridging develops over the Aleutians and most of AK...into the North Pole. Eventually, a piece of the ridge breaks off and sits there near the North Pole. I would think this setup could lead to a very cold pattern, because the polar vortex can no longer find a new home on the other side of the pole. It's almost squeezed between the weakening -nao and now this big ridge on the north slopes of AK. The weakening -NAO ridge could allow for more cold to move se into the US as well since it won't deflect the cold into western Canada. Cross polar flow. I notice the euro ensembles want to bring the trough into the Plains states at the end of the period. With the ridge up on the north slopes of AK, seems like any s/w could surely amplify as it dives se into the US and under the Plains trough. We don't want the trough too far west, but very interesting to see modeled.

That kind of trough, with some blocking, could lead to SWFEs an ice storm and Miller Bs though I'd think. I'd think there would be high pressure in Quebec with that. And perhaps a triple phaser with a diving arctic shortwave.

[weathafella]

That kind of trough, with some blocking, could lead to SWFEs an ice storm and Miller Bs though I'd think. I'd think there would be high pressure in Quebec with that. And perhaps a triple phaser with a diving arctic shortwave.

[CoastalWx]

That kind of trough, with some blocking, could lead to SWFEs an ice storm and Miller Bs though I'd think. I'd think there would be high pressure in Quebec with that. And perhaps a triple phaser with a diving arctic shortwave.

Yeah, I mean we are past two weeks at this point, but it does look interesting as modeled right now. Triple phasers are extremely rare and I wouldn't bet on that, but that pattern could definitely take a s/w and do some interesting things. However, it's beyond 14 days. We have a couple of near term threats possibly.

[Tropopause_Fold]

12z gfs has more of a vort lobe but does generate some -shsn tuesday night on this run.

[CoastalWx]

12z gfs has more of a vort lobe but does generate some -shsn tuesday night on this run.

It's definitely more amplified than on previous runs.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It's definitely more amplified than on previous runs.

it also has a nice look late next week

[CoastalWx]

There's our d7 miller b on the gfs. A NJ TIP model low too.

[weathafella]

Snowy Friday next week?

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm just messin' with you....wasn't trying to give you a hard time. Glad I'm not in Scituate

Yeah, and not to sound hypocritical, that storm was both pedestrian and historic simultaneously...

I guess the best way to describe that was that something of an odd permutation within the storm its self materialized to cause an anomalously low total for interior SNE. I really can't think of any storm, or really find any in the K U books that did that when a deep layer vortex moved in that fashion. Just a fantastic rarity underscored by the size of the cosmic dildo I suppose. Lol.

eh, what can you do.

[ineedsnow]

looks to be a 2 to 5 type deal

Snowy Friday next week?