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The Pattern Ahead


ORH_wxman

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Is there any model or ensemble member even showing snow Sun eve/Mon anymore?

the 0z blizz posted about it. I took his word. and that of the disco he pasted.

looking at the 18z models umm no

the 0z nam is sorta trying a little bit.

will wait to see the 0z gfs ensembles and then the 12z's to write it off

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This might be something a bit diferent than the decadal cycle. We are obviously on the downturn into negative territory, but this blocking episode is something more short term than on a decadal scale. Whatever has been causing the NAO to basically be continuously negative since mid 2008 could be the source of a lot more research.

I know I would have been afraid to forecast a +NAO this winter with something like 25 of the past 30 moths being negative....the forcing is clearly not fully understood. There's a lot of theories...and solar is definitely one of them....but there isn't a very good physical explanation yet as to how solar is impacting it. Only correlation.

It all ties back to it....you can always find different factors that contributed each particular season.

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Yeah this is pretty extreme. Maybe it's a short term mega block as we slide more into a - decal cycle...I dunno. It's also interesting that this -nao seems to be independent of ENSO and falls in line with the things we saw in the 50's and 60's, but this block is much stronger. It's given a big middle finger to any tropical forcing. Makes me wonder what any MJO composites would look like if we had data from the 50's and 60's. Current ones go to 1974 and that's it.

Right.

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93-94 you sick SOB!!

I personally hope not because I'd like big kahuna.

The best winter of all!

cold maybe, but <10" total as of early January is a wretched start up here.

Move to the coast.....everyone on the coast is well above for snow I believe particularly in MA/RI/CT.

Agreed. "Snowy" is not a word that comes to mind when describing the first month of met winter for my neck of the woods.

Move east. GC is here.

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Lol--I'll stick with the law of averages. That said, congratulations on a fun December!

Truthfully, NAO suggests we might do better than typical so anomalies on the coast where totals are typically relatively weak at this point in the season are high. Payback will occur soon enough.

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I'll pass on a 93-94 redux......coast jackot after coast jackpot, which left me in shaft valley, then elevations kicked my azz in the latter portion of the season.

I was a relative snow hole....nothing but mod events and obnoxiously arctic air.

92-93 OTH....

BTW....vote Blizz!

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/6798-the-8th-annual2010-weenie-of-the-year-championship-round/

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I'll pass on a 93-94 redux......coast jackot after coast jackpot, which left me in shaft valley, then elevations kicked my azz in the latter portion of the season.

I was a relative snow hole....nothing but mod events and obnoxiously arctic air.

92-93 OTH....

BTW....vote Blizz!

http://www.americanw...pionship-round/

92-93 even better! :wub:

probably my favorite winter ever, even ahead or tied with 2007-08.

93-94 would be #3 on my list.

interesting that both 92-93 and 93-94 were slow starters.

it was a golden era to be sure. :P

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The euro offers a miller b redeveloper around D7, then a big MIller A slides ots at d10. The pattern features a big NAO ridge retrograding west again, and a big AK ridge developing at the end of the period.

Indeed... I just saw the 00z Euro and it hearkens back to the post I made yesterday afternoon that also included NCEP picking up on the idea... And you are spot on with the observation of the NAO retrograde. Whenever a -NAO shows a multi-member agreed upon rising modality and the feature its self then moves west at high latitudes, there is a teleconnection, strong one at that, for a negative moving eastward underneath at middle latitudes.

I'm more intrigued for this latter system than the any Miller B, but that is not to say there can't be one - or a compromised NJ model low in the meantime.

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Indeed... I just saw the 00z Euro and it hearkens back to the post I made yesterday afternoon that also included NCEP picking up on the idea... And you are spot on with the observation of the NAO retrograde. Whenever a -NAO shows a multi-member agreed upon rising modality and the feature its self then moves west at high latitudes, there is a teleconnection, strong one at that, for a negative moving eastward underneath at middle latitudes.

I'm more intrigued for this latter system than the any Miller B, but that is not to say there can't be one - or a compromised NJ model low in the meantime.

I just continue to be impressed with the overall look of the pattern. Nevermind what the outcome has been, this is pretty remarkable.

I saw that some of the gfs ensembles look like the euro at d7, but not many want to bite at the d10 threat. I don't know if you saw, but the euro also offers some very light snow om Tuesday night with a weak system diving ese.

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I just continue to be impressed with the overall look of the pattern. Nevermind what the outcome has been, this is pretty remarkable.

I saw that some of the gfs ensembles look like the euro at d7, but not many want to bite at the d10 threat. I don't know if you saw, but the euro also offers some very light snow om Tuesday night with a weak system diving ese.

What does very light snow mean? 1-3?

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I just continue to be impressed with the overall look of the pattern. Nevermind what the outcome has been, this is pretty remarkable.

I saw that some of the gfs ensembles look like the euro at d7, but not many want to bite at the d10 threat. I don't know if you saw, but the euro also offers some very light snow om Tuesday night with a weak system diving ese.

I was amazed at dry slots post in the NNE thread where he said boring pattern. Man it looks awesome, I see the there possibilities you points out.

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I was amazed at dry slots post in the NNE thread where he said boring pattern. Man it looks awesome, I see the there possibilities you points out.

Well it hasn't been all that exciting up that way. He did just miss out on that huge band that dumped 2' up by Sunday River.

I don't know how much we'll cash in, but I'm looking at it more from a standpoint that says we are in a strong Nina..and look how everything is modeled. Pretty dam cool.

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00z EURO shows some interesting systems next week, what interests me is the D7 miller B threat, even the CMC shows this, as well as the NOGAPS, but as usual it is out to sea with it, as well as the GEFS means. It is interesting regardless of the outcome, normally a setup like this favors New England more so then the Mid Atlantic states, but it could impact NJ and Long Island with something as well. Again this is a difficult pattern for the models given it is about the PV interaction with the northern jet stream that will allow this to happen. Also the disturbance before that looks good, however gets sheared as it moves east by the dominated PV upper level zonal flow across the eastern 2/3rds of the country.

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