40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Dry air helps keep a low snow surface temp too...especially with the winds relatively light. Any sublimation/melting/evaporation helps to cool the snow surface...it's not like those 45/45 foggy snow eating airmasses. Unfortunately Tds will climb quite a bit on Saturday. Yep....another large factor. Saturday will blow, but it should be pretty short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 AWT WHat does AWT mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Especially at elevation with direct sun exposure,, disastah. Yup, without question, back to square one for those unfortunate souls. Glad the snow here is looking good and should have no problem withstanding a few mild days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 WHat does AWT mean? As we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 as nite falls....kev is readying his shovels...."kids fill that bare spot over there......and over there......" heavy heavy snowpack duty next 72 hrs. As we speak insider pic before he posts more pics of his backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Wow.....this blocking is just relentless; folks like myself and Ginx were all over that.......something was up seeing it continue unabated all year long; I just didn't understand going positive NAO in the face of that signal, despite ENSO considerations. Some folks throw tamper tantrums when you mention the decadle cycle, but if they can come up with a better explanation, then I'm all ears....even the energy gurus like Gibbs are at a loss. Research into solar cycles and the direct correlation with NAO is finally being viewed as non wacko. I am a firm believer and have been honking that horn for two years, no doubt this continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Yep....another large factor. Saturday will blow, but it should be pretty short lived. What is good is the thaw heavy freeze tonight, good base, unless we get heavy rain or deep fog we should be OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 What is good is the thaw heavy freeze tonight, good base, unless we get heavy rain or deep fog we should be OK Yea....I'm growing more and more optimistic that I will not see grass, aside from Kev's pics, for a long, long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Holy crap on the black ice out there tonight, heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Back below freezing at 31.9\24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Yea....I'm growing more and more optimistic that I will not see grass, aside from Kev's pics, for a long, long time. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Absolutely, bare spots will spread quickly, kiss of death for snowpack. Anybody with bare spots already won't have anything left by Sunday. I guess I better hope for a replenishment quickly then. 31.4/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Yea....I'm growing more and more optimistic that I will not see grass, aside from Kev's pics, for a long, long time. Barring some total catastrophe I won't be seeing my lawn until April. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I guess I better hope for a replenishment quickly then. 31.4/23 psst. we're trolling the Blizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 Wow.....this blocking is just relentless; folks like myself and Ginx were all over that.......something was up seeing it continue unabated all year long; I just didn't understand going positive NAO in the face of that signal, despite ENSO considerations. Some folks throw tamper tantrums when you mention the decadle cycle, but if they can come up with a better explanation, then I'm all ears....even the energy gurus like Gibbs are at a loss. This might be something a bit diferent than the decadal cycle. We are obviously on the downturn into negative territory, but this blocking episode is something more short term than on a decadal scale. Whatever has been causing the NAO to basically be continuously negative since mid 2008 could be the source of a lot more research. I know I would have been afraid to forecast a +NAO this winter with something like 25 of the past 30 moths being negative....the forcing is clearly not fully understood. There's a lot of theories...and solar is definitely one of them....but there isn't a very good physical explanation yet as to how solar is impacting it. Only correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 The only folks with any snowcover left come Sunday night will be GC , Will and myself..Everyone else..welcome to a brown brown New Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 This might be something a bit diferent than the decadal cycle. We are obviously on the downturn into negative territory, but this blocking episode is something more short term than on a decadal scale. Whatever has been causing the NAO to basically be continuously negative since mid 2008 could be the source of a lot more research. I know I would have been afraid to forecast a +NAO this winter with something like 25 of the past 30 moths being negative....the forcing is clearly not fully understood. There's a lot of theories...and solar is definitely one of them....but there isn't a very good physical explanation yet as to how solar is impacting it. Only correlation. Yeah this is pretty extreme. Maybe it's a short term mega block as we slide more into a - decal cycle...I dunno. It's also interesting that this -nao seems to be independent of ENSO and falls in line with the things we saw in the 50's and 60's, but this block is much stronger. It's given a big middle finger to any tropical forcing. Makes me wonder what any MJO composites would look like if we had data from the 50's and 60's. Current ones go to 1974 and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 The only folks with any snowcover left come Sunday night will be GC , Will and myself..Everyone else..welcome to a brown brown New Year Those acorns are hours from being exposed again. Congrats on half your yard exposed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I think I will not melt, my drive home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 The Euro has been showing some very potent northern stream waves in the long range...take a look at that thing around D9-10...it gets mucked up by the ill-timed southern stream, but if we can get that to dig without interference, that would be something huge to watch. I'm hoping if we get a very cold pattern, it can be more like Jan '05 with multiple Miller B/clipper chances vs a Jan '04 suppression city...though I think the latter is less likely as that had the PV from hell over Quebec and New Foundland...this looks to be a bit further west and varying in intensity. But given the time frame, all bets still on the table. man i hope u r right Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I think I will not melt, my drive home I really heart Atlantic Canada!!! That would be a nice workout for my shovel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Wow.....this blocking is just relentless; folks like myself and Ginx were all over that.......something was up seeing it continue unabated all year long; I just didn't understand going positive NAO in the face of that signal, despite ENSO considerations. Some folks throw tamper tantrums when you mention the decadle cycle, but if they can come up with a better explanation, then I'm all ears....even the energy gurus like Gibbs are at a loss. actually youve been banging the cycle drum for a while, i recall.....good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 The only folks with any snowcover left come Sunday night will be GC , Will and myself..Everyone else..welcome to a brown brown New Year I've still got like 5-6'' here and I doubt it will all be gone by Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 AWT SNowy Sunday night THE 12Z/30 GEFS...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS INDICATING MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IN FACT...TAKING A LOOK AT THE 12Z GEFS PLUMES...THERE IS ONE MEMBER STILL INDICATING 1.30 LIQUID EQUIVALENT FALLING AS SNOW...WITH THE MEAN OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING 0.50 LIQUID EQUIVALENT FALLING AS SNOW IN KALB. THE NUMBER OF GEFS MEMBERS INDICATING THIS WAVE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FROM THE 00Z/30 SUITE...BUT STILL IS RATHER HIGH. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP CHC POPS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE CAPITAL REGION S AND E...WITH RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FUTURE DETERMINISTIC MODELS TREND TOWARD A WETTER/SNOWIER SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR TEMPS SUNDAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 AWT SNowy Sunday night THE 12Z/30 GEFS...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS INDICATING MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IN FACT...TAKING A LOOK AT THE 12Z GEFS PLUMES...THERE IS ONE MEMBER STILL INDICATING 1.30 LIQUID EQUIVALENT FALLING AS SNOW...WITH THE MEAN OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING 0.50 LIQUID EQUIVALENT FALLING AS SNOW IN KALB. THE NUMBER OF GEFS MEMBERS INDICATING THIS WAVE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FROM THE 00Z/30 SUITE...BUT STILL IS RATHER HIGH. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP CHC POPS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE CAPITAL REGION S AND E...WITH RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FUTURE DETERMINISTIC MODELS TREND TOWARD A WETTER/SNOWIER SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR TEMPS SUNDAY LOL, there is always a weenie member indicating tons of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I hate the periods after storms...only when there is nothing else of significance on the models. I never know what to do with myself The only benefits are resting up and catching up on some sleep and working on other weather stuff. Been working on some tornado stuff but haven't done anything with it over the past 10 days with all the model watching and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 LOL, there is always a weenie member named Kevin indicating tons of snow. Fixed. Although I'm inclined to align myself with Blizz on this one. I could see us getting a nice little refresher here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 I've still got like 5-6'' here and I doubt it will all be gone by Sunday night. 5-6 inches .....that will wither away like a cold weenie. Saturday is D-Day.....tommorrow is the day the sun works to burn some holes in the cover then go to town. if we could get a bit of clouds in during the afternoon that would be great. i don't want to come back from orlando mon morn to a barren land of no snow. sunday evening is trending whiter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 sunday evening is trending whiter. Is there any model or ensemble member even showing snow Sun eve/Mon anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Granted I have only spent a few minutes looking at Sunday/Monday but is it anything to get excited over? Just thinking about this sort of setup it never seems to work for us....seems like it always gets together too late for us to benefit. I can't think of a time where something like this worked out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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