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The Pattern Ahead


ORH_wxman

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Dry air helps keep a low snow surface temp too...especially with the winds relatively light. Any sublimation/melting/evaporation helps to cool the snow surface...it's not like those 45/45 foggy snow eating airmasses. Unfortunately Tds will climb quite a bit on Saturday.

Yep....another large factor.

Saturday will blow, but it should be pretty short lived.

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Wow.....this blocking is just relentless; folks like myself and Ginx were all over that.......something was up seeing it continue unabated all year long; I just didn't understand going positive NAO in the face of that signal, despite ENSO considerations.

Some folks throw tamper tantrums when you mention the decadle cycle, but if they can come up with a better explanation, then I'm all ears....even the energy gurus like Gibbs are at a loss.

Research into solar cycles and the direct correlation with NAO is finally being viewed as non wacko. I am a firm believer and have been honking that horn for two years, no doubt this continues.

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Wow.....this blocking is just relentless; folks like myself and Ginx were all over that.......something was up seeing it continue unabated all year long; I just didn't understand going positive NAO in the face of that signal, despite ENSO considerations.

Some folks throw tamper tantrums when you mention the decadle cycle, but if they can come up with a better explanation, then I'm all ears....even the energy gurus like Gibbs are at a loss.

This might be something a bit diferent than the decadal cycle. We are obviously on the downturn into negative territory, but this blocking episode is something more short term than on a decadal scale. Whatever has been causing the NAO to basically be continuously negative since mid 2008 could be the source of a lot more research.

I know I would have been afraid to forecast a +NAO this winter with something like 25 of the past 30 moths being negative....the forcing is clearly not fully understood. There's a lot of theories...and solar is definitely one of them....but there isn't a very good physical explanation yet as to how solar is impacting it. Only correlation.

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This might be something a bit diferent than the decadal cycle. We are obviously on the downturn into negative territory, but this blocking episode is something more short term than on a decadal scale. Whatever has been causing the NAO to basically be continuously negative since mid 2008 could be the source of a lot more research.

I know I would have been afraid to forecast a +NAO this winter with something like 25 of the past 30 moths being negative....the forcing is clearly not fully understood. There's a lot of theories...and solar is definitely one of them....but there isn't a very good physical explanation yet as to how solar is impacting it. Only correlation.

Yeah this is pretty extreme. Maybe it's a short term mega block as we slide more into a - decal cycle...I dunno. It's also interesting that this -nao seems to be independent of ENSO and falls in line with the things we saw in the 50's and 60's, but this block is much stronger. It's given a big middle finger to any tropical forcing. Makes me wonder what any MJO composites would look like if we had data from the 50's and 60's. Current ones go to 1974 and that's it.

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The Euro has been showing some very potent northern stream waves in the long range...take a look at that thing around D9-10...it gets mucked up by the ill-timed southern stream, but if we can get that to dig without interference, that would be something huge to watch.

I'm hoping if we get a very cold pattern, it can be more like Jan '05 with multiple Miller B/clipper chances vs a Jan '04 suppression city...though I think the latter is less likely as that had the PV from hell over Quebec and New Foundland...this looks to be a bit further west and varying in intensity. But given the time frame, all bets still on the table.

man i hope u r right Will

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Wow.....this blocking is just relentless; folks like myself and Ginx were all over that.......something was up seeing it continue unabated all year long; I just didn't understand going positive NAO in the face of that signal, despite ENSO considerations.

Some folks throw tamper tantrums when you mention the decadle cycle, but if they can come up with a better explanation, then I'm all ears....even the energy gurus like Gibbs are at a loss.

actually youve been banging the cycle drum for a while, i recall.....good call.

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AWT

SNowy Sunday night

THE 12Z/30 GEFS...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS

INDICATING MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

IN FACT...TAKING A LOOK AT THE 12Z GEFS PLUMES...THERE IS ONE MEMBER

STILL INDICATING 1.30 LIQUID EQUIVALENT FALLING AS SNOW...WITH THE

MEAN OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING 0.50 LIQUID EQUIVALENT FALLING AS

SNOW IN KALB. THE NUMBER OF GEFS MEMBERS INDICATING THIS WAVE HAS

TRENDED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FROM THE 00Z/30 SUITE...BUT STILL IS

RATHER HIGH. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP CHC POPS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT

FROM THE CAPITAL REGION S AND E...WITH RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO

SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FUTURE DETERMINISTIC MODELS

TREND TOWARD A WETTER/SNOWIER SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

FOR TEMPS SUNDAY

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AWT

SNowy Sunday night

THE 12Z/30 GEFS...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS

INDICATING MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

IN FACT...TAKING A LOOK AT THE 12Z GEFS PLUMES...THERE IS ONE MEMBER

STILL INDICATING 1.30 LIQUID EQUIVALENT FALLING AS SNOW...WITH THE

MEAN OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING 0.50 LIQUID EQUIVALENT FALLING AS

SNOW IN KALB. THE NUMBER OF GEFS MEMBERS INDICATING THIS WAVE HAS

TRENDED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FROM THE 00Z/30 SUITE...BUT STILL IS

RATHER HIGH. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP CHC POPS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT

FROM THE CAPITAL REGION S AND E...WITH RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO

SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FUTURE DETERMINISTIC MODELS

TREND TOWARD A WETTER/SNOWIER SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

FOR TEMPS SUNDAY

LOL, there is always a weenie member indicating tons of snow.

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I hate the periods after storms...only when there is nothing else of significance on the models. I never know what to do with myself :lol:

The only benefits are resting up and catching up on some sleep and working on other weather stuff. Been working on some tornado stuff but haven't done anything with it over the past 10 days with all the model watching and such.

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I've still got like 5-6'' here and I doubt it will all be gone by Sunday night.

5-6 inches .....that will wither away like a cold weenie. Saturday is D-Day.....tommorrow is the day the sun works to burn some holes in the cover then go to town. if we could get a bit of clouds in during the afternoon that would be great. i don't want to come back from orlando mon morn to a barren land of no snow.

sunday evening is trending whiter.

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Granted I have only spent a few minutes looking at Sunday/Monday but is it anything to get excited over? Just thinking about this sort of setup it never seems to work for us....seems like it always gets together too late for us to benefit. I can't think of a time where something like this worked out for us.

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