Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,618
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    RyRyB
    Newest Member
    RyRyB
    Joined

The Pattern Ahead


ORH_wxman

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Euro ensembles are interesting after D10....they build a monster AK ridge and a big -EPO cold dump onto this side of the pole. That's something we haven't seen in a while. We mostly have had little pieces of arctic air squeeze through AK/NW Canada via the Kamchatka ridge...but haven't seen a full blown AK ridge since briefly in late Nov or early Dec.

That'd be a good pattern for Alberta Clippers, correct?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hmmmm ...verrrrrry interesting....

MID LEVEL BLOCKING WITH A LARGE VERY STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY

RETURNS TO NERN CANADA WITH A DEEP VORTEX LOCKING IN OVER ONTARIO

AS PER 8-10 DAY ECMWF AND GFS/CMC MEANS. STRONG SRN STREAM MID

LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING THRU SRN TX INDUCING LOW PRESSURE

ALONG THE GULF COAST IN A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AND BRING AN

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST

AND MID ATLC SEABOARD OVER THE NEXT WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE CMC AND

ECMWF SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.

ROTH/ROSENSTEIN

Here is what I'm stinking ...

Using the CPC NAO teleconnector prognostic ... the NAO is rising again approaching the D7-10 time frame. That should retrograde the new blocking interval through central Canada, a condition not too dissimilar to that which preceded the last SNE cosmic dildo event (save the south and north coasts of course). The upshot is that at this type of time range, again, all that really matters is the favorable canvas. Should that happen ... such would be. The natural tendency to such a retrograde would be to pivot a negative geopotential region through the OV/MA/NE states, and interestingly ...du du dunnnn, the ECM has that - details not important.

Now, the PNA is a the wild card there (notwithstanding the ludicriously long lead time :arrowhead:). It is currently nearing neutral at CPC, and there is a subtle spike there in the D7-10, before the mean tries to take it negative. What that might imply is a narrow window for some western upward height amplitude - not a lot, but you really don't need a lot if the action from the D-Straight to central Canada works out; you would still end up with a slow mover.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hopefully we can get a few gradient systems like 1994 if the NAO weakens a bit with that huge arctic blast. If we can't, then hopefully we see something try and cut into that airmass with a -NAO and then have it forced out south of us.

IS this artic potential something that would likely be pushed back further than modeled (like the december pattern change)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

IS this artic potential something that would likely be pushed back further than modeled (like the december pattern change)

I really cringe when things are pushed back. Some say "delayed but not denied". I typically find delayed opens the door for more to go wrong. Of course, that can some times work favorably. But anecdotally, I find delayed to be a red flag.

35.0/24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No I was really being serious

We had and inch or two before this snow. This snow is not light, despite blowing and drifting around. Combine that, with the packing that all the blowing and drifting that happened and the snow will still a while. Maybe in spots that get the sun all day it's 8-10", but still knee deep in most areas. I suspect that next three days will do some damage with 45-50 coming up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That could be real cold. Notice how the NAO block weakens, so that ridge may really shove the PV south towards Hudson Bay. The NAO block of course may not weaken, but that's impressive to see modeled.

Yeah I think I'm on board for an arctic outbreak sometime between Jan 15-25, what with the hints of stratospheric warming and the LR models building a big AK block consistently. January might end up way below normal with the moderate cold models are showing after the cutter and then the potential for a major arctic blast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice. I like getting at least 1 day/winter of a near 0F high and -20F low.

The Euro has been showing some very potent northern stream waves in the long range...take a look at that thing around D9-10...it gets mucked up by the ill-timed southern stream, but if we can get that to dig without interference, that would be something huge to watch.

I'm hoping if we get a very cold pattern, it can be more like Jan '05 with multiple Miller B/clipper chances vs a Jan '04 suppression city...though I think the latter is less likely as that had the PV from hell over Quebec and New Foundland...this looks to be a bit further west and varying in intensity. But given the time frame, all bets still on the table.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Had we had this for this last event, 15"+ totals would have been far more common.

And Mt Tolland would not have bald spots the size of Elephants dotting the landscape. Man those open spots really promote snow loss, the heat from the open ground spreads fast. He will be completely bald by tomorrow afternoon, wait.........

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro has been showing some very potent northern stream waves in the long range...take a look at that thing around D9-10...it gets mucked up by the ill-timed southern stream, but if we can get that to dig without interference, that would be something huge to watch.

I'm hoping if we get a very cold pattern, it can be more like Jan '05 with multiple Miller B/clipper chances vs a Jan '04 suppression city...though I think the latter is less likely as that had the PV from hell over Quebec and New Foundland...this looks to be a bit further west and varying in intensity. But given the time frame, all bets still on the table.

That is what I absolutely, positively do not want; I'd rather January 2006.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Speaking of the weeklies.

I'll do week 3 and 4 since ensembles cover week 2.

Week 3 features a -nao with anomalous ridging stretching east to west, from Iceland through srn Greenland into ne Canada. It also features a GOA low. Slightly below normal heights exist across most of the US..especially over the nrn tier.

Week 4 features a strong west based -nao (I assume strong since the signal is pretty strong being 4 weeks out). It also has low heights trying to move into the Bering Sea, but are located more in western AK. It also has a flat ridge extending west to east into southwest US. Looks like a strong pac jet, but with s/w's hopefully being forced south under the block.

Week 4 suggests 850 temps may be a hair above normal because of the nao, but overall looks below normal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Speaking of the weeklies.

I'll do week 3 and 4 since ensembles cover week 2.

Week 3 features a -nao with anomalous ridging stretching east to west, from Iceland through srn Greenland into ne Canada. It also features a GOA low. Slightly below normal heights exist across most of the US..especially over the nrn tier.

Week 4 features a strong west based -nao (I assume strong since the signal is pretty strong being 4 weeks out). It also has low heights trying to move into the Bering Sea, but are located more in western AK. It also has a flat ridge extending west to east into southwest US. Looks like a strong pac jet, but with s/w's hopefully being forced south under the block.

Week 4 suggests 850 temps may be a hair above normal because of the nao, but overall looks below normal.

AWT

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Speaking of the weeklies.

I'll do week 3 and 4 since ensembles cover week 2.

Week 3 features a -nao with anomalous ridging stretching east to west, from Iceland through srn Greenland into ne Canada. It also features a GOA low. Slightly below normal heights exist across most of the US..especially over the nrn tier.

Week 4 features a strong west based -nao (I assume strong since the signal is pretty strong being 4 weeks out). It also has low heights trying to move into the Bering Sea, but are located more in western AK. It also has a flat ridge extending west to east into southwest US. Looks like a strong pac jet, but with s/w's hopefully being forced south under the block.

Week 4 suggests 850 temps may be a hair above normal because of the nao, but overall looks below normal.

Wow.....this blocking is just relentless; folks like myself and Ginx were all over that.......something was up seeing it continue unabated all year long; I just didn't understand going positive NAO in the face of that signal, despite ENSO considerations.

Some folks throw tamper tantrums when you mention the decadle cycle, but if they can come up with a better explanation, then I'm all ears....even the energy gurus like Gibbs are at a loss.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree with you and Scott.....this snow is tenacious; of course, December sun angle also helps a great deal.

Dry air helps keep a low snow surface temp too...especially with the winds relatively light. Any sublimation/melting/evaporation helps to cool the snow surface...it's not like those 45/45 foggy snow eating airmasses. Unfortunately Tds will climb quite a bit on Saturday.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...