Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 LOL, at least by tomorrow you can put Scott's step 7 down on all the bare spots the wind left behind. No I was really being serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen_CentralMass_Wx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Given its 9-10 days out, extremely low. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Our cold source on the Euro ensembles in the long range is directly from north/central Siberia. Its coming straight over the top of the north pole and filling up Canada with frigid air. Nice. I like getting at least 1 day/winter of a near 0F high and -20F low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Euro ensembles are interesting after D10....they build a monster AK ridge and a big -EPO cold dump onto this side of the pole. That's something we haven't seen in a while. We mostly have had little pieces of arctic air squeeze through AK/NW Canada via the Kamchatka ridge...but haven't seen a full blown AK ridge since briefly in late Nov or early Dec. That'd be a good pattern for Alberta Clippers, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Hmmmm ...verrrrrry interesting.... MID LEVEL BLOCKING WITH A LARGE VERY STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY RETURNS TO NERN CANADA WITH A DEEP VORTEX LOCKING IN OVER ONTARIO AS PER 8-10 DAY ECMWF AND GFS/CMC MEANS. STRONG SRN STREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING THRU SRN TX INDUCING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST IN A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AND BRING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLC SEABOARD OVER THE NEXT WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE CMC AND ECMWF SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. ROTH/ROSENSTEIN Here is what I'm stinking ... Using the CPC NAO teleconnector prognostic ... the NAO is rising again approaching the D7-10 time frame. That should retrograde the new blocking interval through central Canada, a condition not too dissimilar to that which preceded the last SNE cosmic dildo event (save the south and north coasts of course). The upshot is that at this type of time range, again, all that really matters is the favorable canvas. Should that happen ... such would be. The natural tendency to such a retrograde would be to pivot a negative geopotential region through the OV/MA/NE states, and interestingly ...du du dunnnn, the ECM has that - details not important. Now, the PNA is a the wild card there (notwithstanding the ludicriously long lead time ). It is currently nearing neutral at CPC, and there is a subtle spike there in the D7-10, before the mean tries to take it negative. What that might imply is a narrow window for some western upward height amplitude - not a lot, but you really don't need a lot if the action from the D-Straight to central Canada works out; you would still end up with a slow mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Hopefully we can get a few gradient systems like 1994 if the NAO weakens a bit with that huge arctic blast. If we can't, then hopefully we see something try and cut into that airmass with a -NAO and then have it forced out south of us. IS this artic potential something that would likely be pushed back further than modeled (like the december pattern change) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 IS this artic potential something that would likely be pushed back further than modeled (like the december pattern change) I really cringe when things are pushed back. Some say "delayed but not denied". I typically find delayed opens the door for more to go wrong. Of course, that can some times work favorably. But anecdotally, I find delayed to be a red flag. 35.0/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 No I was really being serious We had and inch or two before this snow. This snow is not light, despite blowing and drifting around. Combine that, with the packing that all the blowing and drifting that happened and the snow will still a while. Maybe in spots that get the sun all day it's 8-10", but still knee deep in most areas. I suspect that next three days will do some damage with 45-50 coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 That could be real cold. Notice how the NAO block weakens, so that ridge may really shove the PV south towards Hudson Bay. The NAO block of course may not weaken, but that's impressive to see modeled. Yeah I think I'm on board for an arctic outbreak sometime between Jan 15-25, what with the hints of stratospheric warming and the LR models building a big AK block consistently. January might end up way below normal with the moderate cold models are showing after the cutter and then the potential for a major arctic blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Would you say you have 8-10 left? I have about 0 to 28 left here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 Nice. I like getting at least 1 day/winter of a near 0F high and -20F low. The Euro has been showing some very potent northern stream waves in the long range...take a look at that thing around D9-10...it gets mucked up by the ill-timed southern stream, but if we can get that to dig without interference, that would be something huge to watch. I'm hoping if we get a very cold pattern, it can be more like Jan '05 with multiple Miller B/clipper chances vs a Jan '04 suppression city...though I think the latter is less likely as that had the PV from hell over Quebec and New Foundland...this looks to be a bit further west and varying in intensity. But given the time frame, all bets still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen_CentralMass_Wx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Given its 9-10 days out, extremely low. My confidence is slowly increasing per model/ hpc discussion.. Looks interesting. The cold Looks to come across the pole this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I certaintly hope we get a day 8-10 event before I head to San Antonio, TX on the 11th. I would be a great going away gift for me, given that I will be in a warm climate most of the next 4-5 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Would you say you have 8-10 left? I'm surprised at how limited the melting has been so far.. must be el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I certaintly hope we get a day 8-10 event before I head to San Antonio, TX on the 11th. I would be a great going away gift for me, given that I will be in a warm climate most of the next 4-5 months. yeah, I hope we get something around 8-10.. I am headed to Asia for 11 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Like sands through the hour glass these are the days of our lives. So glad we are talking NAO, Arctic Air and chances for cyclogenesis not torch, banana hammocks, frisbee throwing , sipping fruity cocktails like Jan 1990 flip flop weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 yeah, I hope we get something around 8-10.. I am headed to Asia for 11 days. You don't want to be here for it? I'm sure there's one coming in while I'm traveling to Jamaica January 19-21. With my luck, it will come on the 21st leaving me stranded in PHL unable to connect to BDL. 33.9/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 We get the Euro weeklies again tonight...Scooter will have to give us the update. They've done a great job thus far at not breaking down the NAO block that even the ensembles have been trying to do int he long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Our cold source on the Euro ensembles in the long range is directly from north/central Siberia. Its coming straight over the top of the north pole and filling up Canada with frigid air. Had we had this for this last event, 15"+ totals would have been far more common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Had we had this for this last event, 15"+ totals would have been far more common. And Mt Tolland would not have bald spots the size of Elephants dotting the landscape. Man those open spots really promote snow loss, the heat from the open ground spreads fast. He will be completely bald by tomorrow afternoon, wait......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 The Euro has been showing some very potent northern stream waves in the long range...take a look at that thing around D9-10...it gets mucked up by the ill-timed southern stream, but if we can get that to dig without interference, that would be something huge to watch. I'm hoping if we get a very cold pattern, it can be more like Jan '05 with multiple Miller B/clipper chances vs a Jan '04 suppression city...though I think the latter is less likely as that had the PV from hell over Quebec and New Foundland...this looks to be a bit further west and varying in intensity. But given the time frame, all bets still on the table. That is what I absolutely, positively do not want; I'd rather January 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I'm surprised at how limited the melting has been so far.. must be el nino. I agree with you and Scott.....this snow is tenacious; of course, December sun angle also helps a great deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I agree with you and Scott.....this snow is tenacious; of course, December sun angle also helps a great deal. Yep unless you have bare spots then the sun gets a foot hold and poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Speaking of the weeklies. I'll do week 3 and 4 since ensembles cover week 2. Week 3 features a -nao with anomalous ridging stretching east to west, from Iceland through srn Greenland into ne Canada. It also features a GOA low. Slightly below normal heights exist across most of the US..especially over the nrn tier. Week 4 features a strong west based -nao (I assume strong since the signal is pretty strong being 4 weeks out). It also has low heights trying to move into the Bering Sea, but are located more in western AK. It also has a flat ridge extending west to east into southwest US. Looks like a strong pac jet, but with s/w's hopefully being forced south under the block. Week 4 suggests 850 temps may be a hair above normal because of the nao, but overall looks below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Speaking of the weeklies. I'll do week 3 and 4 since ensembles cover week 2. Week 3 features a -nao with anomalous ridging stretching east to west, from Iceland through srn Greenland into ne Canada. It also features a GOA low. Slightly below normal heights exist across most of the US..especially over the nrn tier. Week 4 features a strong west based -nao (I assume strong since the signal is pretty strong being 4 weeks out). It also has low heights trying to move into the Bering Sea, but are located more in western AK. It also has a flat ridge extending west to east into southwest US. Looks like a strong pac jet, but with s/w's hopefully being forced south under the block. Week 4 suggests 850 temps may be a hair above normal because of the nao, but overall looks below normal. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Yep unless you have bare spots then the sun gets a foot hold and poof. Absolutely, bare spots will spread quickly, kiss of death for snowpack. Anybody with bare spots already won't have anything left by Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Absolutely, bare spots will spread quickly, kiss of death for snowpack. Anybody with bare spots already won't have anything left by Sunday. Especially at elevation with direct sun exposure,, disastah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Absolutely, bare spots will spread quickly, kiss of death for snowpack. Anybody with bare spots already won't have anything left by Sunday. as nite falls....kev is readying his shovels...."kids fill that bare spot over there......and over there......" heavy heavy snowpack duty next 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Speaking of the weeklies. I'll do week 3 and 4 since ensembles cover week 2. Week 3 features a -nao with anomalous ridging stretching east to west, from Iceland through srn Greenland into ne Canada. It also features a GOA low. Slightly below normal heights exist across most of the US..especially over the nrn tier. Week 4 features a strong west based -nao (I assume strong since the signal is pretty strong being 4 weeks out). It also has low heights trying to move into the Bering Sea, but are located more in western AK. It also has a flat ridge extending west to east into southwest US. Looks like a strong pac jet, but with s/w's hopefully being forced south under the block. Week 4 suggests 850 temps may be a hair above normal because of the nao, but overall looks below normal. Wow.....this blocking is just relentless; folks like myself and Ginx were all over that.......something was up seeing it continue unabated all year long; I just didn't understand going positive NAO in the face of that signal, despite ENSO considerations. Some folks throw tamper tantrums when you mention the decadle cycle, but if they can come up with a better explanation, then I'm all ears....even the energy gurus like Gibbs are at a loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I agree with you and Scott.....this snow is tenacious; of course, December sun angle also helps a great deal. Dry air helps keep a low snow surface temp too...especially with the winds relatively light. Any sublimation/melting/evaporation helps to cool the snow surface...it's not like those 45/45 foggy snow eating airmasses. Unfortunately Tds will climb quite a bit on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.