Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

The Pattern Ahead


ORH_wxman

Recommended Posts

Semantics aside, it's crap....whatever it is.

I just want the 1990's back:

We were spoiled. If you are waiting for 1992-2005 to come walking through that door, disappointment is almost a certainty. That 13 year period was even better than the late 50s and 1960s for huge storms in SNE.

That's probably our period of snow glory we tell kids and grand kids about for the next 4-5 decades. Maybe we'll get lucky and repeat the process, but it was pretty anomalous. 1948-1991 saw 9 18"+ storms at ORH or about 1 every 5 years. 1992-2005 saw 9 more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

We were spoiled. If you are waiting for 1992-2005 to come walking through that door, disappointment is almost a certainty. That 13 year period was even better than the late 50s and 1960s for huge storms in SNE.

That's probably our period of snow glory we tell kids and grand kids about for the next 4-5 decades. Maybe we'll get lucky and repeat the process, but it was pretty anomalous. 1948-1991 saw 9 18"+ storms at ORH or about 1 every 5 years. 1992-2005 saw 9 more.

I came of age at a time that primed me for years of dissapointment.

But that doesn't explain the coast laughing in my face; I understand these things of in cycles, but enough it enough.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess I can see why....Dec 1992, march 1993, Dec 1997, March 2001.....I beat the coast in all of those, but since March 2001, I have yet to beat them in huge event....I'm due.

There's been few big KU's where you really beat the coast though. Yeah I mean maybe by 3-5", but I don't know if that's a clear beatdown. You handed my ass in march '01.

Other than that, you cleaned up on many swfe in the last couple of years. You schooled me in '07/'08.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I came of age at a time that primed me for years of dissapointment.

But that doesn't explain the coast laughing in my face; I understand these things of in cycles, but enough it enough.

So the coast got Dec '09 and Dec '10?

Big whoop compared to how you have done. 2 years worth of losing out is hardly enough to warrant a complaint. Especially considering you did fine prior to that. You can point to Dec 2003, but then you can't ignore Dec 2005...which while not quite as big, was certainly a major event and you were the sweet spot in it. Also you can't ignore the back to back Dec 2008 storms that jackpotted you and changed the coast to rain in the 2nd one.

I know you have a KU fetish, but you have to look at other large events too. Sometimes you clean up in 2 or 3 large events (but non-KU) and then happen to get in a screw zone for the actual KU. It happens. I'm sure you'll get a CF jackpot at some point soon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So the coast got Dec '09 and Dec '10?

Big whoop compared to how you have done. 2 years worth of losing out is hardly enough to warrant a complaint. Especially considering you did fine prior to that. You can point to Dec 2003, but then you can't ignore Dec 2005...which while not quite as big, was certainly a major event and you were the sweet spot in it. Also you can't ignore the back to back Dec 2008 storms that jackpotted you and changed the coast to rain in the 2nd one.

I know you have a KU fetish, but you have to look at other large events too. Sometimes you clean up in 2 or 3 large events (but non-KU) and then happen to get in a screw zone for the actual KU. It happens. I'm sure you'll get a CF jackpot at some point soon.

I mentioned that.....point taken with regard to Dec 2008; that was lovely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You're a riot. You think 4' snowbanks are going to disappear by Sunday?:arrowhead:

thankfully we radiate well and should hold onto it ok...if you lived atop a hill that doesn't cool well at night under waa scenarios...you'd be in trouble. plus the snow was hvy/wet so we didn't end up with big grass spots showing from the wind. when the sun gets to work on those...ugh...hvy hvy melting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

thankfully we radiate well and should hold onto it ok...if you lived atop a hill that doesn't cool well at night under waa scenarios...you'd be in trouble. plus the snow was hvy/wet so we didn't end up with big grass spots showing from the wind. when the sun gets to work on those...ugh...hvy hvy melting.

:lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well we certainly will not have a shortage of cold air in the next two weeks. Looks like it's just a matter of getting a s/w to amplify under the PV. Hopefully it's not too strong and kicks everything out underneath us, but there are signs it could try to retrograde west and open up the East Coast for business.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

thankfully we radiate well and should hold onto it ok...if you lived atop a hill that doesn't cool well at night under waa scenarios...you'd be in trouble. plus the snow was hvy/wet so we didn't end up with big grass spots showing from the wind. when the sun gets to work on those...ugh...hvy hvy melting.

Even in the sun, the snow is going nowhere fast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

thankfully we radiate well and should hold onto it ok...if you lived atop a hill that doesn't cool well at night under waa scenarios...you'd be in trouble. plus the snow was hvy/wet so we didn't end up with big grass spots showing from the wind. when the sun gets to work on those...ugh...hvy hvy melting.

And radiate I did this AM. 9F. During the winter only the front and one side of my house see sun for any extended period of time ( hours or so). The front is the worst and that faces almost due east. I'll probably still have a solid 6" come Sunday afternoon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro ensembles are interesting after D10....they build a monster AK ridge and a big -EPO cold dump onto this side of the pole. That's something we haven't seen in a while. We mostly have had little pieces of arctic air squeeze through AK/NW Canada via the Kamchatka ridge...but haven't seen a full blown AK ridge since briefly in late Nov or early Dec.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And radiate I did this AM. 9F. During the winter only the front and one side of my house see sun for any extended period of time ( hours or so). The front is the worst and that faces almost due east. I'll probably still have a solid 6" come Sunday afternoon.

i'll just have some snowbanks left. no biggie though...another over-performing dec.

14.5" for the month. no complaints.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Our cold source on the Euro ensembles in the long range is directly from north/central Siberia. Its coming straight over the top of the north pole and filling up Canada with frigid air.

That could be real cold. Notice how the NAO block weakens, so that ridge may really shove the PV south towards Hudson Bay. The NAO block of course may not weaken, but that's impressive to see modeled.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That could be real cold. Notice how the NAO block weakens, so that ridge may really shove the PV south towards Hudson Bay. The NAO block of course may not weaken, but that's impressive to see modeled.

Hopefully we can get a few gradient systems like 1994 if the NAO weakens a bit with that huge arctic blast. If we can't, then hopefully we see something try and cut into that airmass with a -NAO and then have it forced out south of us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hopefully we can get a few gradient systems like 1994 if the NAO weakens a bit with that huge arctic blast. If we can't, then hopefully we see something try and cut into that airmass with a -NAO and then have it forced out south of us.

Jerry will like that you used the year 1994 :lol:

yeah, the pattern looks good as modeled and puts a kabosh on mild January idea's.. at least in that time frame

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...