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The Pattern Ahead


ORH_wxman

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I know. That's why I said that's the hope for western areas. Weestern area would be SOL with a wave, as I think any development would be too weak/late to impact most of SNE. Coastal areas into ME would have the best shot in that scenario.

Some of the modelling develops it right near the coast..and drops a quick couple inches. Something to track at least. GEFS hit it fairly hard

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Some of the modelling develops it right near the coast..and drops a quick couple inches. Something to track at least. GEFS hit it fairly hard

I agree. For mby, think it's more for regional curiosity than any serious thought of an impact out here. So, I'll hold out hope for the frontal passage that BOX referenced.

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I agree. For mby, think it's more for regional curiosity than any serious thought of an impact out here. So, I'll hold out hope for the frontal passage that BOX referenced.

12z nam is a little more robust with the wave but it also is still warm on the coastal plain when it passes by......

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How about me at 430' - about 10 miles west of GINX?

:)

sure...... why not. lol

looks like the further east the better positioned you would be but down east maine has best potential unless modeling starts getting this thing better organized sooner.

actually 0z gfs ensembles show something for everyone really? on several members.....a few pound DE maine.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_0z/f108.html

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well HM called the last week of dec something to watch out for and it delivered. so now he's calling for another period jan 14-17 so weenies here's what he said

There is a growing concern for a potential major winter storm Jan 14-17th. Here are a few things:

1. Another low-frequency MJO pulse through the E PAC-Atlantic sector

2. Possibility of a retrograding Greenland Block

3. Active pattern continues with a parade of storminess

4. Cold air should be very much available

Assuming that everything above comes to fruition, the pattern would become very favorable again for a coastal storm in the time period listed above. However, if the pattern takes on the same characteristics as what just occurred for Dec 25-27, this storm in January may end up more out to sea. With everything being equal, the waves may be a little bit longer this go-around than they were for this past storm. This may keep more people out of the game, perhaps targeting New England more than anyone else. Also, if the STJ s/w fails to materialize just by sheer coincidence/bad timing, that would take the southern states out of the game, too.

So get ready folks...Jan 5 through 15 looks -NAO dominated. :scooter:

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HM is also targeting the January 14-17 area. Perhaps he wrote that for Ray.

There is a growing concern for a potential major winter storm Jan 14-17th. Here are a few things:

1. Another low-frequency MJO pulse through the E PAC-Atlantic sector

2. Possibility of a retrograding Greenland Block

3. Active pattern continues with a parade of storminess

4. Cold air should be very much available

Assuming that everything above comes to fruition, the pattern would become very favorable again for a coastal storm in the time period listed above. However, if the pattern takes on the same characteristics as what just occurred for Dec 25-27, this storm in January may end up more out to sea. With everything being equal, the waves may be a little bit longer this go-around than they were for this past storm. This may keep more people out of the game, perhaps targeting New England more than anyone else. Also, if the STJ s/w fails to materialize just by sheer coincidence/bad timing, that would take the southern states out of the game, too.

So get ready folks...Jan 5 through 15 looks -NAO dominated. :scooter:

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So essentially we are looking at a boring week ahead..... JB says he is issuing an update to his January forecast on Monday. It is becoming clear his big eastern warm up is failing. He has two roblems ...didn't anticipate the rebuilding negative NAO and he now says that he sees warming up at the 10 mb level in the polar regions and this could point to a major Siberian airmass dropping south mid month. At that point we might actually want the - NAO to relax some so we can get some s/w flow events.

And it's likely wrong.

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