Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I know. That's why I said that's the hope for western areas. Weestern area would be SOL with a wave, as I think any development would be too weak/late to impact most of SNE. Coastal areas into ME would have the best shot in that scenario. Some of the modelling develops it right near the coast..and drops a quick couple inches. Something to track at least. GEFS hit it fairly hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Some of the modelling develops it right near the coast..and drops a quick couple inches. Something to track at least. GEFS hit it fairly hard I agree. For mby, think it's more for regional curiosity than any serious thought of an impact out here. So, I'll hold out hope for the frontal passage that BOX referenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I agree. For mby, think it's more for regional curiosity than any serious thought of an impact out here. So, I'll hold out hope for the frontal passage that BOX referenced. 12z nam is a little more robust with the wave but it also is still warm on the coastal plain when it passes by...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 12z nam still has the sun pm/nite shot of precip to snow. looks like a 1-2 deal with the potential for plowable. would just like this feature to stay constant for a few more runs. could be a elevated RI special...maybe even GINX At 500'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 What a disaster driving down into SECT is, bare spots everywhere, kind of makes the drive sad. I can only imagine. Still a good base up here in the north end of Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 12z nam still has the sun pm/nite shot of precip to snow. looks like a 1-2 deal with the potential for plowable. would just like this feature to stay constant for a few more runs. could be a elevated RI special...maybe even GINX At 500'. How about me at 430' - about 10 miles west of GINX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 How about me at 430' - about 10 miles west of GINX? sure...... why not. lol looks like the further east the better positioned you would be but down east maine has best potential unless modeling starts getting this thing better organized sooner. actually 0z gfs ensembles show something for everyone really? on several members.....a few pound DE maine. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_0z/f108.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 you guys have your weenie snow goggles on...and they are fogged up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 well HM called the last week of dec something to watch out for and it delivered. so now he's calling for another period jan 14-17 so weenies here's what he said There is a growing concern for a potential major winter storm Jan 14-17th. Here are a few things: 1. Another low-frequency MJO pulse through the E PAC-Atlantic sector 2. Possibility of a retrograding Greenland Block 3. Active pattern continues with a parade of storminess 4. Cold air should be very much available Assuming that everything above comes to fruition, the pattern would become very favorable again for a coastal storm in the time period listed above. However, if the pattern takes on the same characteristics as what just occurred for Dec 25-27, this storm in January may end up more out to sea. With everything being equal, the waves may be a little bit longer this go-around than they were for this past storm. This may keep more people out of the game, perhaps targeting New England more than anyone else. Also, if the STJ s/w fails to materialize just by sheer coincidence/bad timing, that would take the southern states out of the game, too. So get ready folks...Jan 5 through 15 looks -NAO dominated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 you guys have your weenie snow goggles on...and they are fogged up. What are you not seeing? GEFS have a light evet..Euro has it..just offshore..NAm has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 i dont see anything......gibbs TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOORCH lol digging the grave for my snow right now, piling it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 What are you not seeing? GEFS have a light evet..Euro has it..just offshore..NAm has it NAM has rain maybe sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 NAM has rain maybe sleet NAm has rain changing to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 A few mangled flakes, maybe an inch for NE Mass, coastal NH, ME ahhh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Our problem is with the wave is that it develops too far to the northeast for anything substantial to happen. The cold air arrives too late. There is a Manitoba Mauler disturbance that is entering the picture through the arctic jet on the GFS and NAM models. This could have a major role in determing what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 HM is also targeting the January 14-17 area. Perhaps he wrote that for Ray. There is a growing concern for a potential major winter storm Jan 14-17th. Here are a few things: 1. Another low-frequency MJO pulse through the E PAC-Atlantic sector 2. Possibility of a retrograding Greenland Block 3. Active pattern continues with a parade of storminess 4. Cold air should be very much available Assuming that everything above comes to fruition, the pattern would become very favorable again for a coastal storm in the time period listed above. However, if the pattern takes on the same characteristics as what just occurred for Dec 25-27, this storm in January may end up more out to sea. With everything being equal, the waves may be a little bit longer this go-around than they were for this past storm. This may keep more people out of the game, perhaps targeting New England more than anyone else. Also, if the STJ s/w fails to materialize just by sheer coincidence/bad timing, that would take the southern states out of the game, too. So get ready folks...Jan 5 through 15 looks -NAO dominated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Block is really exerting itself on the 12z GFS today, squashing any threats till mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 NAm has rain changing to snow It's going to take a bit to cool the BL on a frontal wave like that when we're 40F-50F at the fropa. Maybe you can pull off some flakes at your elevation, but I think it looks more like a NE ME threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 12z GGEM looks like it may want to develop something after 180h. Loads of energy digging into the plains. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 12z GGEM looks like it may want to develop something after 180h. Loads of energy digging into the plains. That is all. its shown this threat at 180 the past 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 its shown this threat at 180 the past 5 days And it's likely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 how does the euro look for the sunday potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 It's going to take a bit to cool the BL on a frontal wave like that when we're 40F-50F at the fropa. Maybe you can pull off some flakes at your elevation, but I think it looks more like a NE ME threat. Yea, those types of threats are garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Hopefully the euro ensembles are somewhat correct and we can rifle a s/w around the Hudson Bay PV and have it amplify in time. And good God, what a ridge developing in AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Looks more like an analfront going through early next week. Forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Looks more like an analfront going through early next week. Forget it. he said anal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 he said anal! Yeah, they aren't fun at all..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 So essentially we are looking at a boring week ahead..... JB says he is issuing an update to his January forecast on Monday. It is becoming clear his big eastern warm up is failing. He has two roblems ...didn't anticipate the rebuilding negative NAO and he now says that he sees warming up at the 10 mb level in the polar regions and this could point to a major Siberian airmass dropping south mid month. At that point we might actually want the - NAO to relax some so we can get some s/w flow events. And it's likely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Yea, those types of threats are garbage. Looks more like an analfront going through early next week. Forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Looks more like an analfront going through early next week. Forget it. Yup. Euro may deliver something in the 144h+ range looking at the progression of the closed off low in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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