WinterWxLuvr Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Euro is also in the 40s, at least for most of the region. IAD GFS MOS is 50. Records are upper 30s there, and mid-40s at DCA. I've been watching MOS since you guys turned me on to it earlier, and it's been high every time out here at 3-5 days for the cool snaps. Right now my forecast is 47 at the lowest and I won't be surprised to see that down about 43-44 before its over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 10, 2013 Author Share Posted September 10, 2013 It should probably be an automatic assumption by this point, but... no shear. The good upper-level winds and forcing are behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 GFS has an 850 temp of +2°C on Saturday. Euro is also <5°C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 10, 2013 Author Share Posted September 10, 2013 GFS has an 850 temp of +2°C on Saturday. Euro is also <5°C I cringed a little when I saw the 0Cs reaching the NY/PA border The times, they be changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I cringed a little when I saw the 0Cs reaching the NY/PA border The times, they be changing. time to drag out last year's weenie flack vest and see of it fits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 It should probably be an automatic assumption by this point, but... no shear. The good upper-level winds and forcing are behind the front. Three days of svr for n ny and a hot sprinkle here... Makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 does Wx Bell have those kind of detailed maps for the Euro? not that detailed.. for some reason they don't have sfc temps either. i may ask ryan why as i've seen it elsewhere. this is what they have in some larger sector views plus ensemble mean : 850 hPa Wind Speed & MSLP MSLP MSLP Anomaly 850 hPa Temperature 850 hPa Temperature & Wind Vectors 850 hPa Temperature Anomaly & Wind Vectors 500 hPa Geopotential Height Anomaly 500 hPa Geo Height Anomaly 850 hPa Temp Anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 actualy, i was wrong.. there is a temps section, northeast or southeast u.s. view (can't post the temp or precip maps but it's nice). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 not sure that WV anomaly is totally real but brr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 It's warm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 88F by 12:30 PM on Sep 10. *#$%ing ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 88F by 12:30 PM on Sep 10. *#$%ing ridiculous. It's still summer. It's really not a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 It's still summer. It's really not a big deal. By the calendar, yes. We're on pace to put up a +14 today, and this isn't even the hottest forecasted day of the next 3. This is a pretty big (awful) deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 not sure that WV anomaly is totally real but brr gfs_t2min_a_f_washdc_41.png gfs_t2min_washdc_43.png Bring it on! I want to start cooking some yummy fall dinners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 It's still summer. It's really not a big deal. Hot, but it could be worse. We are now back to negative precip departures on the year at BWI and IAD, and DCA will go shortly. 60 day departures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Hot, but it could be worse. We are now back to negative precip departures on the year at BWI and IAD, and DCA will go shortly. 60 day departures I visit my in-laws in Bel Air every weekend and the difference in lawns between here and there since late June remains night and day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 By the calendar, yes. We're on pace to put up a +14 today, and this isn't even the hottest forecasted day of the next 3. This is a pretty big (awful) deal. +14 seems a bit high, but I'll go along with it. We might be looking at double-digit negative departures for this weekend. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 IAD: 91 that station in the middle of the Potomac: 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 +14 seems a bit high, but I'll go along with it. We might be looking at double-digit negative departures for this weekend. It is what it is. I sure as hell hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Took the laptop out in the backyard and did some work. That lasted about 15 minutes. 90.5 is the high here. 92 at BWI/IAD, 91 at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 A bit unusual to get a hot Sept day with no mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I visit my in-laws in Bel Air every weekend and the difference in lawns between here and there since late June remains night and day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 My thoughts too. Once a month is more than enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 My thoughts too. Once a month is more than enough for me. They come to me once a month and I want to kill myself. I don't know how the hell Mitch does it, unless he is on some strong medication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 As I was saying yesterday, MOS is now lower for the weekend than it was when I looked yesterday. Kinda cool how it has consistently done this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 We are now back to negative precip departures on the year at BWI and IAD, and DCA will go shortly. My lawn is completely dormant. Looks like January. As an aside, this is my 4th year up here...and the first year the lawn was dormant in September, also the first year it wasn't dormant in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 As I was saying yesterday, MOS is now lower for the weekend than it was when I looked yesterday. Kinda cool how it has consistently done this. It is a statistical product that ends up being biased towards climo at longer ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 My lawn is completely dormant. Looks like January. As an aside, this is my 4th year up here...and the first year the lawn was dormant in September, also the first year it wasn't dormant in July. Some of my lawn is dormant, the rest is weeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Todays highs DCA high of 92 BWI high of 93 IAD high of 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 89.9 at home today, but 101 for the heat index. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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