Deck Pic Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Did some very cursory looking and I say all 3 months above normal...1 or 2, well above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 thats fine. Even below normal dosent get us snow in November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 thats fine. Even below normal dosent get us snow in November let it be wet in OCT and NOV and the he!! with temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 ivan redux!!1!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Did some very cursory looking and I say all 3 months above normal...1 or 2, well above I'd be fine with that. There's never a guarantee, but I'd think the odds of a Dec thru Feb being all above would be reduced. I know last year here in Funchester we were below Sept, Oct, and Nov and then bang, way above in Dec and Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 26, 2013 Author Share Posted August 26, 2013 I'd be fine with that. There's never a guarantee, but I'd think the odds of a Dec thru Feb being all above would be reduced. I know last year here in Funchester we were below Sept, Oct, and Nov and then bang, way above in Dec and Jan. I don't think we are going to have a torch winter anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 I agree with at least september. It's likely going to be a warm month. Pretty much a wag but I've been paying some attention lately. Sept +2-3, Oct +0-1, Nov +1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 GFS/Euro diverge after this coming weekend. Euro would seem to imply a not too torchy period following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 27, 2013 Author Share Posted August 27, 2013 GFS/Euro diverge after this coming weekend. Euro would seem to imply a not too torchy period following. Euro has sucked on heat this whole summer it seems..If the Euro was right, we'd be like -10 this summer....I'll say GFS wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 I think coastal storminess along mid atlantic in early Sept is a key for some long range analog forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Did some very cursory looking and I say all 3 months above normal...1 or 2, well above I think so too for Sept thru Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Euro has sucked on heat this whole summer it seems..If the Euro was right, we'd be like -10 this summer....I'll say GFS wins I believe euro has been better further north.... I may be wrong. Euro does seem to be more accurate in fall and winter than in summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Drought, punctuated by a 5-7" event somewhere in there that makes the records look like it was about normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 28, 2013 Author Share Posted August 28, 2013 I believe euro has been better further north.... I may be wrong. Euro does seem to be more accurate in fall and winter than in summer. It has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Oh know a hot fall...I definitely won't be calling that a piece of cake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 We had some heat during the first half for sure but the rest of the month looks to go near or below normal. NAO is looking to flip negative for the first time in 4-5 months. It still in the longer range but getting below -1sd would be meaningful temp wise this time of year. Models like the idea of popping a west coast ridge too. Probably progressive style flow and nothing classic for cool temps. My Sept +2-3 call is bad. Sustained AOA has been elusive since December (not counting this summers warm lows. Summer daytime was easy peasy all things considered). There is a greater chance at finishing the rest of the month with a neg dep than a + one. Pattern could easily continue into Oct. I suppose the heat ridge is saving all of it's energy for Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 My Sept +2-3 call is bad. Spot on up until this point. But I think we have a pretty solid run of negative departures in progress (4 already through today). I think we probably finish the month somewhere at or just below normal (-1-0). Just a WAG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 Spot on up until this point. But I think we have a pretty solid run of negative departures in progress (4 already through today). I think we probably finish the month somewhere at or just below normal (-1-0). Just a WAG. I had a hunch that we would flip to a more ec ridge regime that would have legs. Just didn't happen. This is one heck of a persistent pattern irt knocking out heat before it gets anchored. Hopefully it continues for the next 6 months. No reason to doubt it yet. DC always does well with indian summers though. I'm not scared of a warm Nov unless I'm wearing shorts while eating turkey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 I've been watching the long range lately and it looks like we are moving into an amplified pattern to to close out the month. Big trough out west and corresponding -pna late next week will probably get us into some warm highs. Not 90's or anything but 80's for sure if it pans out. Looks like the big trough will offset the first gl block of the fall but we could start Oct on a cool note if the pna spike + as advertised and corresponding -nao. Highs in the 50's maybe? Pretty far out there but it wouldn't surprise me after the ec ridging get knocked out of the way we could have a period of a gl pinwheel with progressively cooler fronts. Pretty much a WAG on my part but worth watching if you like cool Oct weather. I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 I like a mild Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Well, the amplified idea remains on the table way out in la la land. I'm feeling ok about my wag for early Oct having some unseasonably chilly air during the first week or so. First modeled 850's below freezing. Good times are just around the corner. Can you feel it? I can. lol 0z and 6z gfs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 I like a mild Thanksgiving. Eh, maybe if it's for one day in front of a cold frontal passage. A warm thanksgiving weekend as a whole can be a harbinger of a really crappy start to Dec. You know, conus PAC zonal and with the usual suspects parked in the GOA and Aleutians. No thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 no matter the year this seems to always be most people's forecast who live on the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 no matter the year this seems to always be most people's forecast who live on the east coast BUxnGU7CcAEC_-x.jpg Eventually, they'll end up being right but I wouldn't put too much stock in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Eventually, they'll end up being right but I wouldn't put too much stock in them. trying to figure out what "more snow" means... if more than last year maybe not a bad call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 no matter the year this seems to always be most people's forecast who live on the east coast My winter forecast is that map when there is a chance of snow, the exact opposite at times, and some zonal mixed in for good measure. Can I get my red tag please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 no matter the year this seems to always be most people's forecast who live on the east coast BUxnGU7CcAEC_-x.jpg Northern stream winter = DC win You know it's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Well, the amplified idea remains on the table way out in la la land. I'm feeling ok about my wag for early Oct having some unseasonably chilly air during the first week or so. First modeled 850's below freezing. Good times are just around the corner. Can you feel it? I can. lol 0z and 6z gfs: Think it's about time I do the annual first freeze contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 trying to figure out what "more snow" means... if more than last year maybe not a bad call. That is proably a sage bet....more than 15 inches may or may not be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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