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September 2013 General Discussion


daddylonglegs

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Morning clouds and a few sprinikles held our temp down for awhile, but once the sky cleared we still managed to rocket up to 95.  We have a decent shot at upper 90s Monday and mid 90s Tuesday.  The 70s later in the week will feel great.  We still can't get any rain.  It has been a month now since the last rain.

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The 50% pops for tonight have been completely removed by DVN.  Next shot at rain looks to be Tue night.  Extremely dry ground, mature heat dome, 20-24 degree 850s, and incoming cold front for additional compressional heating should yield a legit shot at 100 for Mon or Tue depending on the timing of the front. 

 

4km NAM for Mon.  Overdone as usual, but shows very intense heat over the region for almost mid September...

 

temp45.gif

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DTX is forecasting a high of 92*F on Tuesday. Assuming we see full mixing/sunshine, that seems plausible, if not a tad conservative. 00z NAM has 925mb temps of 28*C Tuesday Morning, peaking at 30*C by Tuesday afternoon, which would support highs in the mid-upper 90s.

 

And any wind shear above the surface will help the cause.

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DTX is forecasting a high of 92*F on Tuesday. Assuming we see full mixing/sunshine, that seems plausible, if not a tad conservative. 00z NAM has 925mb temps of 28*C Tuesday Morning, peaking at 30*C by Tuesday afternoon, which would support highs in the mid-upper 90s.

 

And any wind shear above the surface will help the cause.

 

I say we tie the record at 94 on Tuesday.

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I say we tie the record at 94 on Tuesday.

NWS's point and click for Metro agrees 

 

Tuesday Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 94. Breezy, with a southwest wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.

 

With such a deep mixed layer, I wouldn't be shocked if it ends up being a degree or so warmer, but I will stick with 94 for Tuesday.

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The end of the week temps are going to be as shock to the system after experiencing record/near record highs mid week. Highs in the 60's and even not getting out of the 50's in the northern areas of the subforum. The fall-like air looks to be progressive though. The GFS boots the trough out more quickly, but the Euro also returns milder air to the area fairly quickly.

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The end of the week temps are going to be as shock to the system after experiencing record/near record highs mid week. Highs in the 60's and even not getting out of the 50's in the northern areas of the subforum. The fall-like air looks to be progressive though. The GFS boots the trough out more quickly, but the Euro also returns milder air to the area fairly quickly.

Yeah about 9-12 days from now things look to really warm up probably close to record territory again. For a roller coaster type month this month looks to be, it doesn't look terribly interesting in the storm department at least not yet anyways.

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Morning clouds and a few sprinikles held our temp down for awhile, but once the sky cleared we still managed to rocket up to 95.  We have a decent shot at upper 90s Monday and mid 90s Tuesday.  The 70s later in the week will feel great.  We still can't get any rain.  It has been a month now since the last rain.

 

We got a little rain yesterday morning.  Man, this weather has been downright strange! :axe:

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Totally stuck with stratus today, which is alright. Saw about 5 minutes of sun around 4pm. Been hanging around 70° for most of the day.

 

First pic of the backside of a tower yesterday.

 

 

Picture near Kenosha, WI showing the corn and leaves starting to turn colors.

 

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I actually think tomorrow is starting to look like the better lock for 90F, with the SW/S winds bringing the warm air this far east a bit earlier than it looked a couple days ago.  On Tuesday, the core of the heat looks a bit east of here, so depending on that and whether convection can develop a tad earlier, that may be the more dicey day.

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I am so done with the heat. 

 

Can we please get these uber warm temps out of here?

 

+1

I'm tired with anything over the low 80s now. Tomorrow looks like 90° if it clears out quick enough, and Tuesday looks like near record heat!

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