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September 2013 General Discussion


daddylonglegs

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It's definitely weird to see all 50s so early in the evening.  Will be a cold night out, the likes of which we haven't seen since May or early June. 

 

Next week looks to be a potentially stormy one, looks like Gulf moisture will be in play with these ridge riders big time.  The absence of severe weather outbreaks this summer has mainly been due to weak shear.  Any chance we see decent shear with thunderstorm chances this fall?  It's not like we can say it was too cold a summer for good shear.  2000 and 2004 (and even 2008) were cooler summers, yet there was plenty of severe.

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You guys can keep the 20s & 30s.  I don't want to have to worry about protecting the garden until October.  Last year the second half of September was cold with a couple nights in the 20s and no lows above 46.

 

It's finally looking good for some rain across Iowa this weekend and again next week.  An all day light to moderate soaker would be fantastic.

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Since the Sparta/Black River Falls area in WI always seems so ridiculously cooler than surrounding areas I figured they would have the all time coldest temp record as well.  I checked and the coldest temp on record in Wisconsin is from some town called Couderay, from way up in northern WI.

 

The coldest temperature ever officially recorded in Wisconsin was -55° F at Couderay on Feb. 4, 1996

 

I don't see any station in that area, so it must have been from some private weather station or something.  Anyway, was sort of surprised to see the record didn't come from the Sparta/Black River Falls area.

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Yeah Couderay, WI is up there by Hayward, WI. Kind of a flat and forested regions. There closer to Minnesota, so I could see why they would have some very cold lows. 

 

Down to 46° at 11:50.

 

Nice write up and pictures of the waterspouts from yesterday by MKX.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=97117&source=0

 

40° at BUU, 12am obs.

35° at Black River Falls

37° at Sparta

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Coldest spot I can find currently in Michigan is Grayling at 31 and Lapeer at 32. Looks like those calls for 20s are going to bust pretty hard as the locations in the North Central Michigan are cloudy with fog or mist.

Grayling was 29 at 3:55 this morning, but yeah, widespread 20's did not happen. No frost here either in Ellsworth... too close to the lake I suppose. Low was 37. At least the foliage wont be spoiled locally.
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34.3 at my house .. frost is extensive.

 

State low is Grayling at 29.

Currently 34.3? If so you might want to calibrate your thermometer, it is off. The airport a mile from you has 39 currently.

 

  METAR text: KOZW 141114Z AUTO 25003KT 10SM CLR 04/03 A3017 RMK AO2 T00370033 Conditions at: KOZW (HOWELL , MI, US) observed 1114 UTC 14 September 2013 Temperature: 3.7°C (39°F) Dewpoint: 3.3°C (38°F) [RH = 97%]

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Here's something I don't see every day, IWX discounting the King. It has seemed to struggle with this summer's pattern. It could finally get active late in the week.

 

CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE GFS OVER
THE ECMWF LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS REALLY HAVING PROBLEMS
HANDING THE ENERGY REACHING THE EASTERN CONUS AS REFLECTED IN ITS
RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES
RANGING FROM A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO AN WEAK OPEN TROF. THE ECMWF MASS
FIELDS WERE SHOWING LARGE NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS LATE THIS
WEEK. GIVEN THE POOR VERIFICATION OF THE ECMWF WITH THIS PATTERN
THIS PAST SUMMER
AND GIVEN THE MUCH BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF
THE GFS...FAVORED THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
KEPT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY IN
THIS REGARD.

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Currently 34.3? If so you might want to calibrate your thermometer, it is off. The airport a mile from you has 39 currently.

METAR text: KOZW 141114Z AUTO 25003KT 10SM CLR 04/03 A3017 RMK AO2 T00370033 Conditions at: KOZW (HOWELL , MI, US) observed 1114 UTC 14 September 2013 Temperature: 3.7°C (39°F) Dewpoint: 3.3°C (38°F) [RH = 97%]

If he lives southwest of Howell towards Stockbridge, it is possible... http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=43.08678055&lon=-86.19150543&zoom=8&pin=Spring%20Lake%2c%20MI

But I don't know his exact location.

Oops, obviously you want to move the map to your side of the state...

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Currently 34.3? If so you might want to calibrate your thermometer, it is off. The airport a mile from you has 39 currently.

 

  METAR text: KOZW 141114Z AUTO 25003KT 10SM CLR 04/03 A3017 RMK AO2 T00370033 Conditions at: KOZW (HOWELL , MI, US) observed 1114 UTC 14 September 2013 Temperature: 3.7°C (39°F) Dewpoint: 3.3°C (38°F) [RH = 97%]

 

I'm not going to be too quick to discount the discrepency. The following is a post from IND's Facebook page At 6 AM. Their office is less than 2 miles west of the airport. It's only a 3 degree difference, not 5, but all of the runways, tarmacs, buildings, etc. can make some difference.

 

"50 degrees at Indy Airport and 47 degrees at Indy NWS."

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If he lives southwest of Howell towards Stockbridge, it is possible... http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=43.08678055&lon=-86.19150543&zoom=8&pin=Spring%20Lake%2c%20MI

But I don't know his exact location.

Oops, obviously you want to move the map to your side of the state...

Those weather underground observations are not accurate as they are just random personal weather stations, I am going by the ASOS sensor data from the airport that is about a mile west of him per his post from last night.

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Currently 34.3? If so you might want to calibrate your thermometer, it is off. The airport a mile from you has 39 currently.

 

  METAR text: KOZW 141114Z AUTO 25003KT 10SM CLR 04/03 A3017 RMK AO2 T00370033 Conditions at: KOZW (HOWELL , MI, US) observed 1114 UTC 14 September 2013 Temperature: 3.7°C (39°F) Dewpoint: 3.3°C (38°F) [RH = 97%]

 

9741409762_937a4feaa0_z.jpg

 

Frost doesn't form at 39 degrees. That's the beauty of PWSs in 2013, gives us a higher resolution view of local weather.

9741407618_c0785db8bd_z.jpg

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