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September 2013 General Discussion


daddylonglegs

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Frost for MI?

 

ecmwfUS_850_temp_072.gif

exciting!!

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL

BE COOL...LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 50S THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RATHER COOL/COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS

SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WINDS DIMINISH. AWAY FROM THE LAKES TEMPS SHOULD

EASILY FALL INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME LOCALIZED UPPER 20S NOT OUT OF

THE QUESTION...LEADING TO PATCHY-AREAS OF FROST. FROST HEADLINES

LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT FORECAST

PERIOD.

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Peaked at 33.9C today, about one degree C off the record for today. Still, enjoyed the steaminess one last time this summer.

Also since it hasn't been mentioned yet, all of southern Ontario has been put under a slight risk by the SPC for tomorrow. I'll be out chasing what will likely be the last decent set up of the year. Some multicell clusters will likely form ahead of a cold front and bring some decent damaging wind action. Similar setup to July 19th around here.

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Just something to throw out there since lately people make mention of KDTW being the warmest spot in the entire area, KDTW was one of the coolest spots today almost all of the major local sites were equal to or higher than KDTW's 93.

KDTW has a radiational cooling issue, not daily high.

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Just something to throw out there since lately people make mention of KDTW being the warmest spot in the entire area, KDTW was one of the coolest spots today almost all of the major local sites were equal to or higher than KDTW's 93.

I was actually going to mention that I was surprised DTW "only" hit 93F compared to some other spots in the area, so figured Id quote your post. It doesnt change how often DTW is one of the warm spots these days, but today that mantra couldnt be further from the truth. DET hit 96F today. The forecast high of 97F was underdone (factoring in the airmass and upstream obs), NAM and RAP way too hot, but GFS MOS and Euro text output were spot on. No record high, but it was the first 90F+ day since July 19th, and the 6th of the year.

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I have a question for those who know more about temperature obs than I do...CLE's daily climo report shows a max of 96 (link)...their record event report shows a max of 96 for CLE (link)...and their observation archive for CLE doesn't show anything higher than 96 (link)...which is very impressive. However, GR:Earth blatently shows a temp of 97 at CLE at 2:51PM. Any idea why there's this discrepancy? I'm assuming here that 96.8 rounds up to 97. Thanks.

 

post-525-0-57726300-1378852604_thumb.png

 

Just so you can look for yourself and make sure I didn't have the program set to show heat index values instead of ambient temperatures I moved the cursor over CLE so you can see in the text box that 96.8 is in fact the temp in that observation.

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So DTW reached a high of 93*F (despite a stiff SW downsloping wind and absolutely no clouds), 1 degree shy of the record high, yet DET made it all the way to 96*F, surpassing DTW's record high by 2 degrees.

 

Nice.

 

The problem was the dewpoints.

 

They didn't mix out nearly as fast as expected.

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I have a question for those who know more about temperature obs than I do...CLE's daily climo report shows a max of 96 (link)...their record event report shows a max of 96 for CLE (link)...and their observation archive for CLE doesn't show anything higher than 96 (link)...which is very impressive. However, GR:Earth blatently shows a temp of 97 at CLE at 2:51PM. Any idea why there's this discrepancy? I'm assuming here that 96.8 rounds up to 97. Thanks.

 

attachicon.gifCLE 97.png

 

Just so you can look for yourself and make sure I didn't have the program set to show heat index values instead of ambient temperatures I moved the cursor over CLE so you can see in the text box that 96.8 is in fact the temp in that observation.

That could be a GR:Earth error, the obs show 96 for 2:53 to 4:53.

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Peaked at 33.9C today, about one degree C off the record for today. Still, enjoyed the steaminess one last time this summer.

Also since it hasn't been mentioned yet, all of southern Ontario has been put under a slight risk by the SPC for tomorrow. I'll be out chasing what will likely be the last decent set up of the year. Some multicell clusters will likely form ahead of a cold front and bring some decent damaging wind action. Similar setup to July 19th around here.

Thought you'd post about the risk here sooner or later. I wouldn't say that the risk will be as robust as July 19th, upper air parameters were more favourable for damaging winds on the 19th, on a larger scale as well. Could be similar to July 10th in coverage of severe storms though. 

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DTW was one of the "cool" spots today for sure. It doesnt change the fact that they USUALLY are one of the warm spots.

They are also one of the furthest South in the area and close enough to get a marine influence to hold temps up on some nights. Partially one of the reasons why the visibility tends to be less than 10 miles here at night compared to other regions. I would bet Grosse Isle and Monroe have similar temperature profiles to KDTW most nights.

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I have a question for those who know more about temperature obs than I do...CLE's daily climo report shows a max of 96 (link)...their record event report shows a max of 96 for CLE (link)...and their observation archive for CLE doesn't show anything higher than 96 (link)...which is very impressive. However, GR:Earth blatently shows a temp of 97 at CLE at 2:51PM. Any idea why there's this discrepancy? I'm assuming here that 96.8 rounds up to 97. Thanks.

CLE 97.png

Just so you can look for yourself and make sure I didn't have the program set to show heat index values instead of ambient temperatures I moved the cursor over CLE so you can see in the text box that 96.8 is in fact the temp in that observation.

I'm going to take a stab and say it's a double rounding error in that software from conversions.

96.8F is conveniently 36C on the nose. So if the actual temperature was 96F, that's 35.6C. A software program might just take that and round up to 36C. Then it gets converted back to F at 36, instead of 35.6 and voila ... you get an extra degree. I've noticed this bug on many a 3rd party weather software.

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That could be a GR:Earth error, the obs show 96 for 2:53 to 4:53.

 

 

I'm going to take a stab and say it's a double rounding error in that software from conversions.

96.8F is conveniently 36C on the nose. So if the actual temperature was 96F, that's 35.6C. A software program might just take that and round up to 36C. Then it gets converted back to F at 36, instead of 35.6 and voila ... you get an extra degree. I've noticed this bug on many a 3rd party weather software.

That's an interesting idea. Could certainly be a problem with GR:Earth rounding a little too much.

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Made it to 95 here.

 

OT but giving another AMS talk this winter probably. Haven't picked an event yet but thinking 11/30-12/1/06

 

Nice.  One of my favorite storms for a variety of reasons.  I did an animation on that one a few years back...

 

MLI set a new record today of 97, which beat the old record of 95.  They're now up to 36 consecutive days without measurable rain.

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They are also one of the furthest South in the area and close enough to get a marine influence to hold temps up on some nights. Partially one of the reasons why the visibility tends to be less than 10 miles here at night compared to other regions. I would bet Grosse Isle and Monroe have similar temperature profiles to KDTW most nights.

 

KDTW year to date is the same as KTTF. KTTF has much more marine influence and is further south.

 

This UHI effect will be more pronounced after 3-4am.

 

2 Degrees warmer can be the difference between an anual ranking of 30th or 50th warmest year on record... or more.

 

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Nice.  One of my favorite storms for a variety of reasons.  I did an animation on that one a few years back...

 

MLI set a new record today of 97, which beat the old record of 95.  They're now up to 36 consecutive days without measurable rain.

 

That's a crazy cutoff for a deformation zone! One heck of storm that night here.

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