Favorite Positive SNE snow bust since 2000

[CTWeatherFan]

I voted January 26-27, 2011. I was in Guilford for that one and ended up with 16.8" for both parts after all the uncertainty leading up to the storm (forecast was for 6-12" that morning). Also mammoth snowpack after the storm.

Some smaller favorites:

3/8/2005 (flash freeze)

12/9/2009 (1" forecast then rain, 6.8" result)

1/7-8/2011 (inverted trough)

11/7/2012

12/29/2012 (CT)

[ORH_wxman]

I voted January 26-27, 2011. I was in Guilford for that one and ended up with 16.8" for both parts after all the uncertainty leading up to the storm (forecast was for 6-12" that morning). Also mammoth snowpack after the storm.

Some smaller favorites:

3/8/2005 (flash freeze)

12/9/2009 (1" forecast then rain, 6.8" result)

1/7-8/2011 (inverted trough)

11/7/2012

12/29/2012 (CT)

 

 

 

I thought about adding both 12/9/09 and 12/29/12 to the list, but didn't think they were large enough...though the bust in S CT was pretty decent in 12/9/09. I remmeber that morning following the obs as I had pulled an allnighter in that one.

[CTWeatherFan]

I thought about adding both 12/9/09 and 12/29/12 to the list, but didn't think they were large enough...though the bust in S CT was pretty decent in 12/9/09. I remmeber that morning following the obs as I had pulled an allnighter in that one.

I got a surprise day off from school on 12/9/09 (was a freshman in HS at the time). Neat storm.

Sadly for 12/29/12 I was in Oyster Bay, NY (got porked). Still got to shovel back home the next day though.

[ice1972]

I got a surprise day off from school on 12/9/09 (was a freshman in HS at the time). Neat storm.

Sadly for 12/29/12 I was in Oyster Bay, NY (got porked). Still got to shovel back home the next day though.

What a

[ORH_wxman]

I got a surprise day off from school on 12/9/09 (was a freshman in HS at the time). Neat storm.

Sadly for 12/29/12 I was in Oyster Bay, NY (got porked). Still got to shovel back home the next day though.

 

 

12/29/12 was pretty good actually. I should have put it on there. There really was nothing saying anyone would get over 6" of snow in that almost right up to when it started snowing when the last runs of the NAM and RAP caught on...though the final Euro run at 00z the night before was somewhat bullish.

 

12/9/09 kind of sucked because it rained so heavy after the snow...even up here in ORH. We got compacted down to about 3" of mush after 7.5" or something. It might have been almost all washed away down there. We had about 1-2 hours of ZR during the transition which probably prevented us from a total wipeout of the morning snow.

[ORH_wxman]

I also could have put November 27, 2002 on there. Really good storm for N CT and pike region of MA...was supposed to be 2-4/3-5 and ended up as a solid 6-10" in a stripe. Happened the day before Thanksgiving as a bonus for the holidays.

[ice1972]

I also could have put November 27, 2002 on there. Really good storm for N CT and pike region of MA...was supposed to be 2-4/3-5 and ended up as a solid 6-10" in a stripe. Happened the day before Thanksgiving as a bonus for the holidays.

White Thanksgivings are a real treat.....I remember 2005.....

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Mar 6-8 was the bomb, I remember checking QPF maps at work and telling friends/fam that the on air guys saying we'd get nothing but rain were out of their minds, and the pounding of snow along with accumulating thundersleet rocked.

The "told ya so" factor on that one was great.

[ORH_wxman]

Mar 6-8 was the bomb, I remember checking QPF maps at work and telling friends/fam that the on air guys saying we'd get nothing but rain were out of their minds, and the pounding of snow along with accumulating thundersleet rocked.

The "told ya so" factor on that one was great.

 

 

When I saw you had posted in this thread, I expected to see you lobbying for Dec 5-7, 2003...epic positive bust in Peabody...but it was really local obviously.

 

 

But yeah, the March 6-8 storm this year was great for me personally too...I hit it very hard from about 60-72 hours out while most others were very gun-shy on it. For me personally, it was a nice "win"...though I still was horribly underdone in my forecast here even though I was bullish relative to other forecasts. Great storm that was and its why I picked it.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

When I saw you had posted in this thread, I expected to see you lobbying for Dec 5-7, 2003...epic positive bust in Peabody...but it was really local obviously.

But yeah, the March 6-8 storm this year was great for me personally too...I hit it very hard from about 60-72 hours out while most others were very gun-shy on it. For me personally, it was a nice "win"...though I still was horribly underdone in my forecast here even though I was bullish relative to other forecasts. Great storm that was and its why I picked it.

True, there have been other great busts here, that one was just different in that I could actually understand some the factors at play and really risked looking like a dumba$$ by being vocal supporting bullish calls. Felt like a big gamble and win.

Though I'd imagine it felt that way infinitely more so for you guys with real forecasting reputations on the line! Hell even lowballing it was better than saying, "it's a non-event folks, nothing but rain"

Absolutely an exciting/precarious setup that called for watching all the way to the finish.

[joey2002]

I voted for the Firehose Storm this year in March.

 

...I think enjoyed this March's bust a bit better. Even my bullish forecast was still way too low here.

 

Yeah, the firehose storm is the first one that came to my mind, since we ended up getting absolutely crushed up here in NE CT. 

 

Heavy snow just kept coming and coming all night, lasting into the morning hours and even early afternoon. 

 

It was so localized, we got over 20 inches in Tolland, but BDL and much of the river valley ended up with under 5 inches. 

 

 

 

That storm was just incredible to watch... the never ending firehose!

 

[CoastalWx]

The March 6-8 storm really was fascinating after screwing the Mid Atlantic and burying us. Definitely a learning lesson for me. For the coast, it was all about rates as temps aloft would support snow if precip rates were sufficient...recall we had CAA from the north aloft at like 925mb. One of my big proponents for heavy snow is stromg mid level RH and lift...you've seen me post those charts in the winter andf they never let you down. Despite the QPF being low and on the euro..it had both those features...well at least the mid level RH. Big red flag and personally...should have picked that up for BOS. BOS was tricky with borderline temps, but that's a flag for sure. Live and learn I guess....ORH and int SE MA looked like they were good to go..but BOS and NE MA were tougher...but the signs were there. Great storm. Even though I was thinking nowhere near the amount of snow the fell...I started getting that feeling the night before the snow started...yet many had almost all rain right up until the snow started. 

[CT Rain]

The March 6-8 storm really was fascinating after screwing the Mid Atlantic and burying us. Definitely a learning lesson for me. For the coast, it was all about rates as temps aloft would support snow if precip rates were sufficient...recall we had CAA from the north aloft at like 925mb. One of my big proponents for heavy snow is stromg mid level RH and lift...you've seen me post those charts in the winter andf they never let you down. Despite the QPF being low and on the euro..it had both those features...well at least the mid level RH. Big red flag and personally...should have picked that up for BOS. BOS was tricky with borderline temps, but that's a flag for sure. Live and learn I guess....ORH and int SE MA looked like they were good to go..but BOS and NE MA were tougher...but the signs were there. Great storm. Even though I was thinking nowhere near the amount of snow the fell...I started getting that feeling the night before the snow started...yet many had almost all rain right up until the snow started. 

 

That storm sucked

[CoastalWx]

That storm sucked

 

I can say the same for Feb '06  

[CT Rain]

I can say the same for Feb '06  

 

lol true story. The March storm was such a bizarre storm in so many ways. The standing wave pattern that setup was like something I've never seen for its longevity. RI got screwed worse than me lol. 

[CoastalWx]

lol true story. The March storm was such a bizarre storm in so many ways. The standing wave pattern that setup was like something I've never seen for its longevity. RI got screwed worse than me lol. 

 

Yeah that was something else. I'm trying to recall some of these erly flow with significant subsidence zones, and Dec '92 comes to mind...but that may have also been due to such strong downsloping off of the ORH hills into the CT valley. March 2010 rain event also had a huge drop off in precip from ORH and points west with a small uptick in the Berks. April Fools 1997 had no such thing and was an epic QPF bomb.  It makes some sense I guess. It's really an isentropic gravy train and many times doesn't have strong QG forcing from PVA. So with that, I would guess changes like downsloping and loss of mass convergence over the coastal plain can cause these subsidence zones. Just an idea. 

[CT Rain]

Yeah that was something else. I'm trying to recall some of these erly flow with significant subsidence zones, and Dec '92 comes to mind...but that may have also been due to such strong downsloping off of the ORH hills into the CT valley. March 2010 rain event also had a huge drop off in precip from ORH and points west with a small uptick in the Berks. April Fools 1997 had no such thing and was an epic QPF bomb.  It makes some sense I guess. It's really an isentropic gravy train and many times doesn't have strong QG forcing from PVA. So with that, I would guess changes like downsloping and loss of mass convergence over the coastal plain can cause these subsidence zones. Just an idea. 

 

Yeah 4/1/97 had epic QG forcing as well... this was the classic firehose and the mechanisms for lift were much more mesoscale in nature. Some weird inertial oscillations wound up screwing me. 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah 4/1/97 had epic QG forcing as well... this was the classic firehose and the mechanisms for lift were much more mesoscale in nature. Some weird inertial oscillations wound up screwing me. 

 

That seems to happen in some of these. 

[CT Rain]

That seems to happen in some of these. 

 

Normally in these storms you get precip from a bunch of different forcing mechanisms. Some initial overrunning... then a fire hose... then deformation... etc. In the March case it was solely fire hose that never really moved for 24 hours. That made it really unique. Most of the big events have a few different mechanisms so even if you get screwed in one of them you can make up for it somewhere else. 

 

The lack of snow on the CT/RI border was just bizarre. Like 1" just east of Ginxy in western RI. 

[MJHUB]

Firehose was the biggest let down I had ever seen in RI. 0.0  while reading about feet 30 min away

[CoastalWx]

Normally in these storms you get precip from a bunch of different forcing mechanisms. Some initial overrunning... then a fire hose... then deformation... etc. In the March case it was solely fire hose that never really moved for 24 hours. That made it really unique. Most of the big events have a few different mechanisms so even if you get screwed in one of them you can make up for it somewhere else. 

 

The lack of snow on the CT/RI border was just bizarre. Like 1" just east of Ginxy in western RI. 

 

Yeah just mega PWAT bombs so like you said...it's usually favorable for many even if you don't jackpot. I just think those pure firehose deals that are isentropic beasts seem to have these little issues. That strong deep layer erly flow seems prone to convergence and subsidence issues.

[CT Rain]

Yeah just mega PWAT bombs so like you said...it's usually favorable for many even if you don't jackpot. I just think those pure firehose deals that are isentropic beasts seem to have these little issues. That strong deep layer erly flow seems prone to convergence and subsidence issues.

 

Sort of makes sense I guess when you have all your lift centered quite low in the troposphere your able to get some really finicky area of convergence/subsidence. Definitely a weird standing wave pattern that sets up and in this case was exceptionally noticeable. 

[tamarack]

Kinda thin pickings for NNE. I voted for Feb. 5, 2001, not because it was a bust (forecast was something like 12-18" and I got 17") but because it was clearly the best up here of all the choices. My somewhat localized bust nominee would be March 30-31, 2001. As the first couple inches struggled to accumulate through the morning and early afternoon, the forecast was 4-8". Then the afternoon AFD bumped it up to 8-16" (some bump!) We finished with 19", and it brought snowpack to 48" going into April, Farmington's tallest for so late in the season in 70+ years of snow depth records.

Of course, no ++bust will ever top April 1982, when CAR was forecasting "wide right", nothing but flurries up within 3-4 hours of when the snow began, and wound up with a 26" blizzard.

[ice1972]

That storm sucked

This.....and Boxing Day Storm.....

[Snow Bow]

I went with the October 2011 storm. The forecast from the nws just kept going up. Started at like 5-8 inches of snow expected, then 6-10, then 10-13 and just kept getting updated every hour higher and higher until it stopped at 18-23. Think I ended up with 21.5"

[moneypitmike]

October 2011 is the hands-down winner out here.  28" of powder with hours and hours in the killer band.  Not as long as Mitch who had it pivot over his head and cleaned house with it, but several inches/hour rates are fun anytime.  Add it to the October date and you've got yourself something very special.

[TalcottWx]

12/9/05 especially since 05 is what made me into a weenie. I'll never forget watching a movie, hearing thunder, assuming it was a plane, hearing it again and then looking towards the window. All three living room windows were snow plastered and I couldn't see outside. I put my boots on ran out as fast as I could. Snow was ferocious, cars were sliding sideways down my street backwards and a neighbor a few blocks up fell and was facedown in the snow. I was one of the first people to find her. It was just pure insanity.

[Ginx snewx]

I also liked the Norlun Jan 2011 surprise 8+, SW CT got hammered better but that was pure cold snow, official forecasts were dusting to 2 but we knew better here

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah, the firehose storm is the first one that came to my mind, since we ended up getting absolutely crushed up here in NE CT. 

 

Heavy snow just kept coming and coming all night, lasting into the morning hours and even early afternoon. 

 

It was so localized, we got over 20 inches in Tolland, but BDL and much of the river valley ended up with under 5 inches. 

 

total-snow.jpg

 

 

That storm was just incredible to watch... the never ending firehose!

 

I'll never forget one of Ryan's first posts after that storm was over..It said"I could have done without Kevin getting 22 inches."

 

LOL...whee

[weathafella]

Don't forget 12/23/97.