forkyfork Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 I doubt it, but it's possible. 90, even 92 is definitely within reach. WX/PT with 850 temps near 20c and enough mixing it should happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 The ECMWF does tend to overdo these scenarios this time of year, but it is certainly an interesting solution over the North Atlantic from D8 - D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Source region cooking... RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE442 AM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT VALENTINE NE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 105 DEGREES WAS SET AT VALENTINE NEYESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 101 SET IN 1980. RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE442 AM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NORTH PLATTE NE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES WAS SET AT NORTH PLATTE NEYESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 102 SET IN 1931. RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE537 PM CDT FRI SEP 06 2013...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT VALENTINE NE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 105 DEGREES WAS SET AT VALENTINETODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 101 SET IN 1980. RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE537 PM CDT FRI SEP 06 2013...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NORTH PLATTE NE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES WAS SET AT NORTH PLATTETODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 102 SET IN 1931. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 The ECMWF does tend to overdo these scenarios this time of year, but it is certainly an interesting solution over the North Atlantic from D8 - D10. That is interesting. Not likely to verify IMO though. The Euro also backed away on any sort of moderation after the cool shot this weekend. In fact, after 120 hours, 850 mb temperatures never get above 10 C anywhere in the area, and are below 5 C for a large portion of the D5-D10 timeframe. Still looks like 90+ is possible Wednesday, though the Euro backed away on the widespread 90+ it had yesterday on the 2 meter temperature maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Interior regions reach the upper 50s as highs next Saturday the Euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 That is interesting. Not likely to verify IMO though. The Euro also backed away on any sort of moderation after the cool shot this weekend. In fact, after 120 hours, 850 mb temperatures never get above 10 C anywhere in the area, and are below 5 C for a large portion of the D5-D10 timeframe. Still looks like 90+ is possible Wednesday, though the Euro backed away on the widespread 90+ it had yesterday on the 2 meter temperature maps. ECM cuts off a low while other guidance and the ecm ensebles rebuild the ridge by the 17th. We'll see if the euro loses it or other guidance latches on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Are you expecting a repeat of that (as in 90 degrees on Columbus Day) this year? Way too early to say but 2007 is similar enso currently. I dont think we'll see an Oct tha t anomalously warm for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Just a great late summer day. Warm at the beaches JFK: 87ACY: 86BLM: 86EWR: 84TEB: 84New Bnswk: 84NYC: 83TTN: 81LGA: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 ECM cuts off a low while other guidance and the ecm ensebles rebuild the ridge by the 17th. We'll see if the euro loses it or other guidance latches on. The 18z GFS looks like it also wants to try and dig another trough into the east after the first trough later this week. Should be interesting if the second trough continues to trend more amplified or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Way too early to say but 2007 is similar enso currently. I dont think we'll see an Oct tha t anomalously warm for a while. I like 1964 and 1981 as analogs for the fall...the first three weeks of October 1964 were well below average...then an above average regime set in until late November...October 1981 was even colder...October will be a test for these analogs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I like 1964 and 1981 as analogs for the fall...the first three weeks of October 1964 were well below average...then an above average regime set in until late November...October 1981 was even colder...October will be a test for these analogs... Bone chilling... 1981 seems like a better analog ENSO wise, but we'll see. ENSO region 3.4 saw a jump from -0.25C to +0.04 over the past week. Could be a temporary bounce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 The more troughs the better, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 90's on wed to 60 on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 The gfs continues with the cool shot, coolest run yet for some, and it struggles to moderate as much afterward. Still looks like some 90s for Wednesday unlikely for Tuesday and Thursday so it'll be a one day kind of deal. I've said before that we would be done with 90s (could be wrong), ill say it again just because of climo and the fact that I don't see a massive warmup after the midweek late heat blast. Highs may not get out of the mid 60s for either Friday or especially Saturday and lows are likely to be in the 40s away from the coast and immediate urban locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Coolest night thus far. 43 for the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Highest temperatures at Newark from 9-10 on since 1983: 9-14-08........92 9-13-05........94 9-13-94........92 9-15-93........94 9-16-91........95 9-17-91........95 9-10-89........97 9-10-83........98 9-11-83........99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 before 1990, but this pattern produced mid/upper 90's across the area in 1983 sept 10th: sept 11th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 The 12z NAM continues get warmer. 18z Wed for NYC: SFC is about 96F. 850mb temps 21C: Date: 54 hour Eta valid 18Z WED 11 SEP 13Station: KNYCLatitude: 40.78Longitude: -73.97-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1014 19 35.4 21.5 44 14.0 25.2 190 8 307.3 310.4 297.9 355.9 16.09 1 1000 144 32.6 22.3 55 10.3 25.0 198 8 305.7 308.9 298.1 357.2 17.16 2 950 605 28.1 19.8 60 8.4 22.1 207 9 305.7 308.6 297.1 352.0 15.45 3 900 1082 24.2 16.8 63 7.4 19.1 216 10 306.4 308.9 296.0 346.9 13.47 4 850 1580 21.1 12.1 56 9.0 15.2 239 11 308.2 310.2 294.3 340.1 10.49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Euro is continuing to insist on a second trough to move into the east after the first trough moves through. As jetski said, it really doesn't moderate a lot that much after the first trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 The 12z NAM continues get warmer. 18z Wed for NYC: SFC is about 96F. 850mb temps 21C: Date: 54 hour Eta valid 18Z WED 11 SEP 13Station: KNYCLatitude: 40.78Longitude: -73.97-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1014 19 35.4 21.5 44 14.0 25.2 190 8 307.3 310.4 297.9 355.9 16.09 1 1000 144 32.6 22.3 55 10.3 25.0 198 8 305.7 308.9 298.1 357.2 17.16 2 950 605 28.1 19.8 60 8.4 22.1 207 9 305.7 308.6 297.1 352.0 15.45 3 900 1082 24.2 16.8 63 7.4 19.1 216 10 306.4 308.9 296.0 346.9 13.47 4 850 1580 21.1 12.1 56 9.0 15.2 239 11 308.2 310.2 294.3 340.1 10.49 it has dewpoints rivaling what we saw in july Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 September 9-11th 1964 was a mini heat wave with two days over 90...A cold front passage on the 12th brought near record cold on the 14th...two shots of cool air before another warm up into the 80's...this year is on par with 64... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 50.6 here last night, great radiational cooling conditions for nassau. Any real weenies out there may be interested to note that a distinct land breeze developed along the north shore of long island last night, keep areas within 1-2 miles of the sound significantly warmer than areas just inland. A quick review of PWS all the way out notes this very clearly. Most evident is northport yaght club PWS, notes a distrinct wind shift to the S when temp plummets, and then after sunrise switches back to the north, unsurprisingly, its low was 8-10 degrees warmer than locations just a few miles inland. This extended west into nassau as well, where i bottomed out about 50, while Roslyn, right on the water, bottomed out at only 57 and the wind was blowing from the South all night, while my winds were dead calm all night long allowing for radiational cooling. At this time of year, the sound is still near 70, and with land temps dropping into the 50's, the strong temp gradient creates a persistent land breeze preventing areas along the immediate coast from radiating well. Really cool. Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 How are our chances Thursday for some decent thunderstorm activity? I know widespread severe is never a wise bet but I'd think the strong cold front should be able to get us some good storms at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 there's an outside chance for the warmer spots to achieve a heat wave if we mix enough tomorrow and clouds/convection hold off til afternoon on thursday. and the euro backed off significantly on the re-establishment of the eastern trof after it moves out sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 there's an outside chance for the warmer spots to achieve a heat wave if we mix enough tomorrow and clouds/convection hold off til afternoon on thursday. and the euro backed off significantly on the re-establishment of the eastern trof after it moves out sunday I agree for places like EWR, New Brunswick maybe even TTN (which seems to have been running cool compared to surrounding areas of late). Thu could be issues with clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Milky skies w/ cirrus spreading in, high of 73 today. Pleasantly cool, after a 49.8 morning low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Completely cloudy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Been pretty dry here lately with only 1.03 in. past 28 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Wed 9/11 record highs look safe. But I think with enough sunshine we could be looing at mid 90s. NYC: 99 (1983) LGA: 96 (1983) JFK: 96 (1983) EWR: 99 (1983) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Wed 9/11 record highs look safe. But I think with enough sunshine we could be looing at mid 90s. NYC: 99 (1983) LGA: 96 (1983) JFK: 96 (1983) EWR: 99 (1983) One last hurrah for the pools or do we exceed 85+ again mid/late next week? I think we'll probably be back into the 80s by D 10 but we'll probably be done with 90s after Wednesday. Climo is against us at this point though we've seen hot shots to 90F for another few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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