September 2013 Observations And Discussions

[NEXtreme]

Lol fall isnt about shorts warmth and cut off shirts...since when did the definition of fall change

Definition didn't change... Fall actually starts in a few weeks ... Lol... Average highs are uppers 70's to around 80 right now ....so yes nothing unusual about wearing shorts in September.

[Snow_Miser]

Euro is pretty chilly with next weekend's cold shot.. brings the 0 C 850 mb line down into NE PA at hour 168.

[Snow_Miser]

The Euro is also very warm for Wednesday with >20C 850s. It has widespread 90s from PHL into most of NJ.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Euro is pretty chilly with next weekend's cold shot.. brings the 0 C 850 mb line down into NE PA at hour 168.

 

That means 40s for most of the Mid Atlantic.

[SnoSki14]

The Euro is also very warm for Wednesday with >20C 850s. It has widespread 90s from PHL into most of NJ.

It's quite dramatic for this time of year where extremes like that are still fairly uncommon, highs in the 90s to maybe widespread lows in the 40s a few days later.

[uncle W]

extremes were common for September in the 1960's...September 1963 saw 80's three times after temperatures in the 40's...max/min on the 7th was 56/49 with light rain...coldest max on record for the date...temps rebounded to 84 on the 9th and 85 on the 12th...dropped to a record low of 46 on the 13th...87 on the 19th...40 on the 24th...83 on the 27th...it doesn't get into the 40's much lately in Central Park in September...since the 2000's started the average minimum is 50...the long term average is 47...

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The 00Z GFS has a large 1025mB HP coming down from Canada by 9/13/13. Serious cool down afoot. 

[MJO812]

The 00Z GFS has a large 1025mB HP coming down from Canada by 9/13/13. Serious cool down afoot. 

0z GFS is pretty chilly for the northeast next weekend

[winterwarlock]

We always have the big cool shot to signal fall is coming. Looks like its coming next weekend. It happens every year unfortunately

[SACRUS]

We always have the big cool shot to signal fall is coming. Looks like its coming next weekend. It happens every year unfortunately

 

 

The cooldown next weekend  13-15 looks to be followed by another impressive reversal to warmth by the 17th.  Ridging into the east is prog'ed to linger that week into the 21st. Beynond there id expect a continued back and forth...

[SACRUS]

Outside of the hot spots like Newark, philly and maybe nyc I doubt we get above mid eighties. I think Md and Va  have the best shot at 90, anyway this will be short it is obvious the heat for most is done.

 

i could see most of nj and the nyc arfea (ttn, new Brusnwick, TEB, NYC, LGA, ewr) all reaching 90 wed perhaps thu.  Places in nj could approach 90 tue as well.

[SACRUS]

First week of September in the books.  Next 2 weeks looks like a rollercoaster bias warm overall.

 

 

NYC: +1.2

9/1: 84/75 (+7)

9/2: 82/74 (+5)

9/3: 82/68 (+3)

9/4: 82/65  (+2)

9/5 : 80/64 (+0)

9/6: 72/57 (-6)

9/7:  80/59 (-1)

 

 

EWR: +0

9/1: 84/73 (+6)

9/2: 83/73 (+5)

9/3: 84/69  (+4)

9/4: 82/64 (+1)

9/5: 80/61 (-1)

9/6: 73/55 (-8)

9/7: 80/52 (-5)

 

LGA: +0.2

9/1: 85/75 (+6)

9/2: 82/72 (+3)

9/3: 82/70  (+3)

9/4: 82/66 (+1)

9/5: 77/64 (-2)

9/6: 72/57 (-7)

9/7: 79/61 (-2)

 

 

JFK: +1.3

9/1: 84/73 (+6)

9/2: 82/72 (+5)

9/3: 85/69 (+5)

9/4: 82/66 (+2)

9/5: 82/64 (+1)

9/6: 72/56 (-7)

9/7: 78/58 (-3)

[SACRUS]

2007 featured a similar back and forth type pattern as well.  with late in the month 90 dergree readings.  The wamrth eventually became more sustained into October.

[Stormlover74]

2007 featured a similar back and forth type pattern as well.  with late in the month 90 dergree readings.  The wamrth eventually became more sustained into October.

 

That was like the neverending summer. I'll never forget halloween having 90% of the trees still green and not hitting our foliage peak until mid November

[Isotherm]

i could see most of nj and the nyc arfea (ttn, new Brusnwick, TEB, NYC, LGA, ewr) all reaching 90 wed perhaps thu.  Places in nj could approach 90 tue as well.

 

 

I'm thinking Wed will probably be a clean sweep for most sites as the hottest day, around 88-90F, with Tues generally mid 80s (83-87) with slightly lower 850's, and enough debris Thursday to hold temps in the mid 80s (83-87) as well. Wednesday looks to be the peak, with FROPA occurring Friday morning.

[Isotherm]

That was like the neverending summer. I'll never forget halloween having 90% of the trees still green and not hitting our foliage peak until mid November

 

 

Yep, pretty disgusting to see green leaves on November 5-10th. Honestly though if I was told I'd have a torch fall SON followed by a snowy DJF, I'd gladly sign up. But the winter of 07-08 was probably one of the most painful I've experienced to date.

[Isotherm]

I'm thinking Wed will probably be a clean sweep for most sites as the hottest day, around 88-90F, with Tues generally mid 80s (83-87) with slightly lower 850's, and enough debris Thursday to hold temps in the mid 80s (83-87) as well. Wednesday looks to be the peak, with FROPA occurring Friday morning.

 

 

I'm still stuck at 15 90F days, with the last one occurring July 20th I believe. We'll see if this week does it.

[Stormlover74]

Yep, pretty disgusting to see green leaves on November 5-10th. Honestly though if I was told I'd have a torch fall SON followed by a snowy DJF, I'd gladly sign up. But the winter of 07-08 was probably one of the most painful I've experienced to date.

November turned chilly but yeah that winter sucked. One good storm in late February and that was it.

[easternsnowman]

The Euro is also very warm for Wednesday with >20C 850s. It has widespread 90s from PHL into most of NJ.

Phil and south jersey are the hotter spots and not representative from Allentown on north

[SACRUS]

I'm still stuck at 15 90F days, with the last one occurring July 20th I believe. We'll see if this week does it.

 

Hey Iso - its been fun tracking this summer and the amazing turn around from the july roaster to the aug freezer. That late august warmth underperformed the more south of tghe city for sure.   all indications are there but as we all know clouds could easily get n the way.  What an amazing turn back and forth this looks to be.  Could be looking at 45 - 50 degree temp swings between wed and sat.  Thats more akin to Denver.

[MJO812]

^^^^ That's digusting

[Weathergun]

Someone forgot to tell the NAM that it's almost fall.

 

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The NAM has plume of 21C-22C 850mb temps moving through the area Tuesday night. But it's a muggy S/SW flow. So I think the NAM might be overdoing coverage of 90s on Wednesday bit. I do think many spots in NJ will get into lower 90s.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

First week of September in the books.  Next 2 weeks looks like a rollercoaster bias warm overall.

 

 

NYC: +1.2

9/1: 84/75 (+7)

9/2: 82/74 (+5)

9/3: 82/68 (+3)

9/4: 82/65  (+2)

9/5 : 80/64 (+0)

9/6: 72/57 (-6)

9/7:  80/59 (-1)

 

 

EWR: +0

9/1: 84/73 (+6)

9/2: 83/73 (+5)

9/3: 84/69  (+4)

9/4: 82/64 (+1)

9/5: 80/61 (-1)

9/6: 73/55 (-8)

9/7: 80/52 (-5)

 

LGA: +0.2

9/1: 85/75 (+6)

9/2: 82/72 (+3)

9/3: 82/70  (+3)

9/4: 82/66 (+1)

9/5: 77/64 (-2)

9/6: 72/57 (-7)

9/7: 79/61 (-2)

 

 

JFK: +1.3

9/1: 84/73 (+6)

9/2: 82/72 (+5)

9/3: 85/69 (+5)

9/4: 82/66 (+2)

9/5: 82/64 (+1)

9/6: 72/56 (-7)

9/7: 78/58 (-3)

Looks to me like very quick (12-18 hour) shots of cool air preceded and followed by 24-48 hour periods of 10-15 degree above normal weather with some humidity on the warm/hot days as well.

WX/PT

[forkyfork]

i think we'll exceed 95 wed

[forkyfork]

and the nam backed off on tonight's cool temps... surprise

[mupawxnut]

2007 featured a similar back and forth type pattern as well.  with late in the month 90 dergree readings.  The wamrth eventually became more sustained into October.

Are you expecting a repeat of that (as in 90 degrees on Columbus Day) this year?

[Wxoutlooksblog]

i think we'll exceed 95 wed

I doubt it, but it's possible. 90, even 92 is definitely within reach.

WX/PT

[uncle W]

and the nam backed off on tonight's cool temps... surprise

[SnoSki14]

This could arguably be the warmest air mass since July at least aloft, but perhaps even at the surface. My current forecast is 89 for Wednesday but I expect that forecast to show low 90's by tomorrow. 

[bluewave]

This is going to be the biggest temperature swing within 3 days during the second week

of September in quite some time.