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September 2013 Observations And Discussions


sutherlandfan

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wed - fri look very warm with wed or thu (9/11-12) potentially exceeding 90 with enough sunshine ahead of the front.  Guidance  doess lbring  another cooldown  next weekend 9/14 - 9/16 but we'll have to see if it is as cool as this weekend.  Longer range it looks like the ridge builds back in by the week of the 17th with a trough into the west coast which  would likely produce a stretch of above normal 9/17 - 9/21.

 

 

We are in a seasonal change month. Up and downs rule

 

The big unknown going forward into the fall will be how long the persistent +NAO pattern lasts. This is already

among the most positive stretches from April to September that we have seen. The strongest 

blocking further north has been over the Pacific side.

 

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50.6 here last night, great radiational cooling conditions for nassau.

 

Any real weenies out there may be interested to note that a distinct land breeze developed along the north shore of long island last night, keep areas within 1-2 miles of the sound significantly warmer than areas just inland. A quick review of PWS all the way out notes this very clearly. Most evident is northport yaght club PWS, notes a distrinct wind shift to the S when temp plummets, and then after sunrise switches back to the north, unsurprisingly, its low was 8-10 degrees warmer than locations just a few miles inland.

This extended west into nassau as well, where i bottomed out about 50, while Roslyn, right on the water, bottomed out at only 57 and the wind was blowing from the South all night, while my winds were dead calm all night long allowing for radiational cooling. At this time of year, the sound is still near 70, and with land temps dropping into the 50's, the strong temp gradient creates a persistent land breeze preventing areas along the immediate coast from radiating well.

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Don't see 90s with high humidity and dews, probably upper 80s tops, some warm spots coud briefly hit 90. Temperature roller coaster ride with high heat in early September to much cooler the past couple days, brief warmth tomorrow followed by more cool air on Monday, high heat midweek to maybe coolest air of the season after.

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 ECM builds heights to +588DM with 850 temps 20(+) on wed.  If we arent mostly cloudy many stations should reach or exceed 90 wed/thu ahead of the front.  As others said a bit of a roller coaster with some more cool behind followed by more warmth towards the 16th.  ridging into the east looks to be potentially a bit more sustained in the 9/16 - 9/21 period. 

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53 this morning imby...49 at the coop site near me...74 now...you can't rule out 90's still but the chances are slim...

 

Down to 48 here this morning cooler than thu night (50).  May not get much lower than 70 on wed night but by next sat we could struggle to break 70 for a high.

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Lol sitting at the rutgers game and the sun is hot. Yes it was cool rgis morning but so what itis certainly summery now in the mid 70s

It would feel hotter if it was actually above normal......not below....lol

This is great late september early october weather as we get closer to the official start of Fall.

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Lol sitting at the rutgers game and the sun is hot. Yes it was cool rgis morning but so what itis certainly summery now in the mid 70s

 

 

Of course it still feels warm, the sun angle's on par with about early April which is quite strong. Sun still making it up to about 55-60 degree above the horizon. To me your argument is akin to saying in a mid January spell of 70s, "it still feels like winter because the Sun is so weak." It's an argument based on sun angle rather than actual weather conditions (temperature, etc).

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 ECM builds heights to +588DM with 850 temps 20(+) on wed.  If we arent mostly cloudy many stations should reach or exceed 90 wed/thu ahead of the front.  As others said a bit of a roller coaster with some more cool behind followed by more warmth towards the 16th.  ridging into the east looks to be potentially a bit more sustained in the 9/16 - 9/21 period. 

 

 

Yeah definite torch for Wed/Thurs though I'm uncertain if we max out around 85-86 or make a run for 90. Right now I'm thinking the plume of 90F 850's gets eaten up a bit while propagating NE and we deal with a good deal of debris and mid 80s.

 

Next weekend will probably feature a stronger cool shot than the one we just saw, at least as strong.

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12z ECM and other guidance continue to hone in on late summer heat surge tue - thu with heights approaching 592dm and 850 temps 18 - 20c(+).  We could be looking at temps nearing  records for some areas if we remain sunny enough on wed.  ECM brings in strong cold front fri and 48 hour cooldown before ridge builds back.  GFS/ensembles also building heights by 9/16 for an extended period through the week towards 9/20-212. it will be interesting to see how hot we can get next week (perhaps the last 90s for most) and then if next weekend could match this recent cooldown.

 

 

 

 

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Nothing worse than seeing 90s in September , it's like seeing 40s/50s in mid Spring, just yuck.

 

If we do reach the 90s, it wont be a long wait for some more cool/fall weather next fri nigh/sat 14/15.  and for those who enjoy warmer falls the cooldown looks short with more warmth by the 16/17th.

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The Euro looks similar to the NAM with the heat surge into the Midwest on Tuesday.

Could see 95-100 range for the hotspots in places like Indiana with enough sun.

The heat has been building over the Plains the last few days.

 

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Benn watcing that - chicago likely to reach 90(+) 3 or more times  by wed.  This has been well forecasted on the ecm/gfs/ensembles with strong ridge and heat blasting from the plains and GL.  Guidasnce has been consistently hinting that The week of the 16th looks to be warm as well with deeper troug into the west and subsequent ridging into the east.   

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Benn watcing that - chicago likely to reach 90(+) 3 or more times  by wed.  This has been well forecasted on the ecm/gfs/ensembles with strong ridge and heat blasting from the plains and GL.  Guidasnce has been consistently hinting that The week of the 16th looks to be warm as well with deeper troug into the west and subsequent ridging into the east.   

 

It looks like a real battle of the daily departures coming up. Wednesday may be pushing +10 and close to -10 by the weekend.

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The latest NAEFS for September 15th-22nd has a touch of cool probs for the SE US with generally near normal for our area. I think the front part of this period probably keeps the overall time frame cooler due to the strong Canadian shot Friday-Sunday. The 3rd week of September will likely turn progressively warmer as the NAO/AO remain in a state of transience. However, the positive PNA will keep the pattern generally back/forth temp wise the next couple weeks.

 

As Sacrus and others have been discussing, hot shot mid this week, then the next time frame for 80s would probably by around the 18th +/- a couple days.

 

 

2013090700_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NA

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The latest NAEFS for September 15th-22nd has a touch of cool probs for the SE US with generally near normal for our area. I think the front part of this period probably keeps the overall time frame cooler due to the strong Canadian shot Friday-Sunday. The 3rd week of September will likely turn progressively warmer as the NAO/AO remain in a state of transience. However, the positive PNA will keep the pattern generally back/forth temp wise the next couple weeks.

 

As Sacrus and others have been discussing, hot shot mid this week, then the next time frame for 80s would probably by around the 18th +/- a couple days.

 

 

2013090700_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NA

 

Awesome. :)

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