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September 2013 Observations And Discussions

sutherlandfan

By sutherlandfan,
in New York City Metro

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

 Upcoming cool shot to be followed by a return to a warmer above normal pattern. Guidance continues to show late season heat potential next week Wed/thu (9/11-12).  Perhaps a chance at 90 for some of the warmer areas in NJ/NYC with 850s forecast to 18 - 20c and heights building to 588DM.  Overall wamrer pattern into the end of next week and beyond towards the middle of septermber with ridging into the east as WAR builds back setting up trough into the Lakes.  Humid southerly flow could follow the warmth towards the end of next week with perhaps a wetter period as front(s) may get hung up near the coast.  Could we be seeing the coolest september has to offer over the next 72 hours, probably not but it could be interesting as it looks warm  starting 9/10 into the middle of the month.

 

test8.gif

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IntenseBlizzard2014

IntenseBlizzard2014

Posted
Posted

 Upcoming cool shot to be followed by a return to a warmer above normal pattern. Guidance continues to show late season heat potential next week Wed/thu (9/11-12).  Perhaps a chance at 90 for some of the warmer areas in NJ/NYC with 850s forecast to 18 - 20c and heights building to 588DM.  Overall wamrer pattern into the end of next week and beyond towards the middle of septermber with ridging into the east as WAR builds back setting up trough into the Lakes.  Humid southerly flow could follow the warmth towards the end of next week with perhaps a wetter period as front(s) may get hung up near the coast.  Could we be seeing the coolest september has to offer over the next 72 hours, probably not but it could be interesting as it looks warm  starting 9/10 into the middle of the month.

 

test8.gif

 

I wouldn't go for 90F. The NAO has been down trending continuously for the past 45 days and with the Decreasing Day light time and deeper troughs, it will be tough for any form of summertime heat to happen. Probably mid 80s, but not 90F. 

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

 Upcoming cool shot to be followed by a return to a warmer above normal pattern. Guidance continues to show late season heat potential next week Wed/thu (9/11-12).  Perhaps a chance at 90 for some of the warmer areas in NJ/NYC with 850s forecast to 18 - 20c and heights building to 588DM.  Overall wamrer pattern into the end of next week and beyond towards the middle of septermber with ridging into the east as WAR builds back setting up trough into the Lakes.  Humid southerly flow could follow the warmth towards the end of next week with perhaps a wetter period as front(s) may get hung up near the coast.  Could we be seeing the coolest september has to offer over the next 72 hours, probably not but it could be interesting as it looks warm  starting 9/10 into the middle of the month.

 

 

 

 

Tony, I'm not all that impressed with next week's moderation to be honest. I think it's a bit of a dirty warm-up mid week and the true high heat (90+) will stay well to our SW. We'll get some elevated 850's for a couple days with temps probably widespread into the mid 80s and increased humidity. At this point it doesn't look like a 90 degree potential airmass to me. Late next week another reinforcing shot of cooler air should dig into the Northeast for a couple days before we moderate again post the 15th. The NAEFS forecast for the 13th-20th period isn't all that impressed with warmth either and I think we'll be lucky to push it more than slightly above normal through the next 7-15 days. Overall though the NAO/AO will be transitional so very back/forth regime and likely averaging out near or slightly above normal for September.

 

2013090500_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NA

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

I have my doubts..many were calling for 90s by the end of august.. and it didn't happened. .maybe we do get warm weather..but 90s.. mmm

 

I think there is a slight chance but if we get enough sun, especially what appears to be next wed (9/11) it wouldnt shock me to see some areas attain 90.  There were several 90 and near 90 (89) days the last 10 days of August.  Clouds really hindered what could have been stronger heat but the potential was there. 

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't go for 90F. The NAO has been down trending continuously for the past 45 days and with the Decreasing Day light time and deeper troughs, it will be tough for any form of summertime heat to happen. Probably mid 80s, but not 90F. 

 

Youre probably right but the ridge really does build in strong for about 2 days wed/thu and if we see enough clearing the potential appears to be there on recent guidance.   still plenty of time to track, but it looks like we quickly revert back to a wamer pattern after the next few days of cool. 

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tim

tim

Posted
Posted

Absolute stunning evening. 75/48 right now. Skies took until 330 to really clear, a bit of a bust on sky conditions today.

If we can decouple, I'm hoping for first 40s since June here.          

...I should get into the 40's tonite here in the pine barrens of ELI..

looking forward to it.

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

Tony, I'm not all that impressed with next week's moderation to be honest. I think it's a bit of a dirty warm-up mid week and the true high heat (90+) will stay well to our SW. We'll get some elevated 850's for a couple days with temps probably widespread into the mid 80s and increased humidity. At this point it doesn't look like a 90 degree potential airmass to me. Late next week another reinforcing shot of cooler air should dig into the Northeast for a couple days before we moderate again post the 15th. The NAEFS forecast for the 13th-20th period isn't all that impressed with warmth either and I think we'll be lucky to push it more than slightly above normal through the next 7-15 days. Overall though the NAO/AO will be transitional so very back/forth regime and likely averaging out near or slightly above normal for September.

 

 

 

Iso -  I could see it being dirty with plenty of clouds and more humid but still think we can squeeze out a hot day either wed/thu.  Beyond there I think we'll ride an overall above normal period 9/11 - 9/18. 

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

got down to 47, I was expecting worse, people make it out to be like it was going to be sooooooooooo fall like....lol as if we don't see days like this in September. The average split for me now is down to 80/56 so there will be a few days ahead where we go above normal

Thankfully we always have you to come in here and set us straight

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

got down to 47, I was expecting worse, people make it out to be like it was going to be sooooooooooo fall like....lol as if we don't see days like this in September. The average split for me now is down to 80/56 so there will be a few days ahead where we go above normal

 

 

The scenario you just described is a -8 daily departure. How is that not a moderately anomalous day?

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

Coldest night I see on guidance for NYC/LI is Sunday night into Monday morning. NAM and other guidance has NYC into the low 50s with the 40s very nearby.

 

If the afternoon winds can calm down a little after the fropa, then Sunday night is when the radiational cooling spots of NYC and LI can get into the 40s.

Cold spots of NWNJ and PA are progged to get into the 30s on the NAM.

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TWCCraig

TWCCraig

Posted
Posted

Coldest night I see on guidance for NYC/LI is Sunday night into Monday morning. NAM and other guidance has NYC into the low 50s with the 40s very nearby.

 

If the afternoon winds can calm down a little after the fropa, then Sunday night is when the radiational cooling spots of NYC and LI can get into the 40s.

Cold spots of NWNJ and PA are progged to get into the 30s on the NAM.

 

I think the NAM is being too aggressive with the front Sunday. GFS only brings 850's down to 9C, Euro brings them down to 8C but still brings surface temps down into low 50's for NYC. The NAM brings them to around 4-5C. Surface wise, the difference in the models is smaller, all in the low to mid 50's though.

 

f75.gif

 

Many places wouldn't radiate either with a strong NNE wind.

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

I think the NAM is being too aggressive with the front Sunday. GFS only brings 850's down to 9C, Euro brings them down to 8C but still brings surface temps down into low 50's for NYC. The NAM brings them to around 4-5C. Surface wise, the difference in the models is smaller, all in the low to mid 50's though.

f75.gif

Many places wouldn't radiate either with a strong NNE wind.

I've always said that an area like LGA has colder temps on a strong North wind then on days it's calm there.

So if the winds progged turn out true, I expect LGA to come in colder Monday morning then today.

P.S. LGA's low today was 57.

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forkyfork

forkyfork

Posted
Posted

Coldest night I see on guidance for NYC/LI is Sunday night into Monday morning. NAM and other guidance has NYC into the low 50s with the 40s very nearby.

 

If the afternoon winds can calm down a little after the fropa, then Sunday night is when the radiational cooling spots of NYC and LI can get into the 40s.

Cold spots of NWNJ and PA are progged to get into the 30s on the NAM.

 

a few days ago the nam was showing 30's in new jersey for this morning

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