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September 2013 Observations And Discussions


sutherlandfan

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Does look very nice this week with bluse skies and very dry. Thu - Sat (9/5-7) look like the coolest days then id think we warm towards normal Sun/mon (9/8-9/9)before getting some more above normal temps by next tue/wed (9/10-11). Beyond there the gfs and ecm imply higher heights with ridging into the east coast and that shuld allow for more above normal and potential for late season heat somehwere between 9/11 and 9/15 or so....

The CFS is sniffing out 78F-82F as the highest temps for the Tri-State Area from September 11th-19th, which is slightly above average.

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We might struggle to reach 70 for a high on Friday. 850mb temps don't warm up very much by the afternoon. But with no -NAO block in sight, I don't think we are locking any major cool patterns yet. The Euro ensembles forecast the MJO to collapse and the CFSv2 is trending warmer for later in the month:

 

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

 

wk3.wk4_20130903.NAsfcT.gif

 

 

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We might struggle to reach 70 for a high on Friday. 850mb temps don't warm up very much by the afternoon. But with no -NAO block in sight, I don't think we are locking any major cool patterns yet. The Euro ensembles forecast the MJO to collapse and the CFSv2 is trending warmer for later in the month:

 

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

 

wk3.wk4_20130903.NAsfcT.gif

 

Typhoon Tip in another thread was mentioning that a +AO now lag correlates very nicely to a -AO in the winter.

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We might struggle to reach 70 for a high on Friday. 850mb temps don't warm up very much by the afternoon. But with no -NAO block in sight, I don't think we are locking any major cool patterns yet.

Just give us the same weather a week from Saturday (24 hour food and water fast).
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I am thinking Friday night into Saturday will be the cooler night for out here. Winds don't look like they'll go calm tomorrow night and a north wind off the sound is going to keep temperatures up. Friday night, the NAM has the winds going calm, allowing for radiational cooling to take over.

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