NEXtreme Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 I was wrong mainly because of the cool nightime lows but thats okay if I get summer in october next week instead I thought this was going to be a beach weekend? Any how, beautiful weather ahead through next week with temps generally in the 70's and perhaps a day or two of 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 With the slightly milder temps the next few days, NYC will finish up very close to normal for the month ahead of all the other stations. The CFS was correct in keeping the strongest warm departures out west. The model did a great job in forecasting the greatest chances of NE positive departures closer to Eastern New England. NYC DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 With the slightly milder temps the next few days, NYC will finish up very close to normal for the month ahead of all the other stations. The CFS was correct in keeping the strongest warm departures out west. The model did a great job in forecasting the greatest chances of NE positive departures closer to Eastern New England. NYC DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.3 summaryCFSv2.NaT2mProb.201309.gif MonthTDeptUS.png 1990 looks a little similar...1990 had a very mild October...It's not my analog of choice but you can't dismiss it...1981 and 1964 were very cool in October...I'm starting to think October will another near normal month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 today turning into a gem... Temops near 70 already and bright sunshine! Very refreshing and very california-like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 1990 looks a little similar...1990 had a very mild October...It's not my analog of choice but you can't dismiss it...1981 and 1964 were very cool in October...I'm starting to think October will another near normal month... If the CFS is correct again, then October will break the pattern of cooler temps that we have seen in August and September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 I was wrong mainly because of the cool nightime lows but thats okay if I get summer in october next week instead I thought this was going to be a beach weekend? Any how, beautiful weather ahead through next week with temps generally in the 70's and perhaps a day or two of 80. Cool has been overperforming since 9/13 similar to the end of july and forst half of august. Today might turn out to be a nice beach day though by socal standards anyway. The warmest day this week could exceed the low 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 The gfs has about .25 inches of precip through 240 hours and less than a .10 the first 200 hours. ECM is about the same but brings in about .25 - 50 next saturday. Will this current dry spell end with a deluge? The last one april/may ended with one of the wettest junes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 October could torch, which is unfortunate for the foliage season as it was progressing nicely. I'm thinking we could see mid 80s the coming week for a day or two and even after the trough moves through we don't cool down all that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 October could torch, which is unfortunate for the foliage season as it was progressing nicely. I'm thinking we could see mid 80s the coming week for a day or two and even after the trough moves through we don't cool down all that much. It may torch. I still think that we will see upper 70s as the highest temperature next week. Then mid 70s for the second week of October. The other half of October will feature better cool shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Earlier in the month we talked about 2007 as an analog we may see similar trends in Oct but not quite to the extent of that furnace. Looks like we get a decent (short-lived) trough/cpold front next weekend which is our best shot at rain for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 It may torch. I still think that we will see upper 70s as the highest temperature next week. Then mid 70s for the second week of October. The other half of October will feature better cool shots. We'll see about this week. The recent underperofming warmth since 2 weeks ago has me a bit cautions but with 850s pegged in the 15c - 17c range wed coupled with the recent dryness - i think we exceed 80 and maybe touch mid 80s wed/thu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 We'll see about this week. The recent underperofming warmth since 2 weeks ago has me a bit cautions but with 850s pegged in the 15c - 17c range wed coupled with the recent dryness - i think we exceed 80 and maybe touch mid 80s wed/thu It may have underperformed but when we see a nice release of heat with high 850s then we can certainly torch. Those 2-3 days this month proved that. Looks like the gfs combines a closed low in the east with an offshore low. The NAO transitioning to positive favors a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 It is a beach weekend for me....gorgeous...too bad I have to work next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 What a truly great day today weather-wise. Felt like Long Beach California with highs in the low to mid 70s and onshore flow. Today's highs New Brunswick: 75 EWR: 74 JFK: 74 NYC: 73 LGA: 73TTN: 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 awesome today and the beat will go on........bam....Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 today lining up to be another gem, likely a notch cooler than yesterday but the socal streak continues. morning satellite shows the fog in the valleys. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/ne/flash-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Overnight guidance continues an overall dry theme with a bit of an october roller coaster the next week with heights rising in the east under a strong ridge tue - fri with very warm temps peaking wed/thu with some 80 degree readings possible. By next weekend a strong trough that his well modeled will push through a cold front sometime next weekend. GFS is quicker than the euro with the trough but between sat and next sun the front should pass through and the trough dig and set the stage a few days cooldown. beyond there temps will likely moderate as height rise in an otherwise overall warmer than normal pattern. Next weekend offers the next shot at rain, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Ugh warm falls always seem to bring crappy winters. Plus HM is not thrilled at all for us this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Ugh warm falls always seem to bring crappy winters. Plus HM is not thrilled at all for us this winter. Im not so sure allsnow. The cool has been out perfroming the warmth overall so far. It does look like the first week or 10 days of oct will break that trend but we'll see. If we can continue to progress with this back and forth type pattern we could cash in. come dec/jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Ugh warm falls always seem to bring crappy winters. Plus HM is not thrilled at all for us this winter. I lost a lot of confidence in seasonal forecasting after the disasterous hurricane season forecasts so I'm taking every seasonal forecast with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 WSO Upton has had a low temp in the 30's or 40's on 13 of the last 14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 I lost a lot of confidence in seasonal forecasting after the disasterous hurricane season forecasts so I'm taking every seasonal forecast with a grain of salt. I don't really think one has anything to do with the other. The hurricane forecasts are almost always a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 IMBY I was -2.2 for August and am currently -2.2 for September. 16 mornings in the 40s for September here, including today at 46.9F. So we've certainly had plenty of cool air since the pattern change on July 20th or so. The question in my mind is will it continue through October. A warm Oct and Nov yields a correlation that's tends toward a warm winter. If we can get one of the two months normal or below normal, my preference being October given the correlations, I would be happy. I'm unconvinced that October is warm at this point. The first 7 days will be above average but what happens thereafter is uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Ugh warm falls always seem to bring crappy winters. Plus HM is not thrilled at all for us this winter. So far it's been a very cool fall after a cool August. More than 2 below normal here for both months. It's very early, and if we can get October to at least be near normal temp wise, that's not bad. The next week looks warm, but thereafter could chill off if the current proggs for +PNA development come to fruition. GFS ensembles also want to kill off the -NAO/AO pretty quickly, so I'm hoping that aspect verifies as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 I think we will see a few super warm days like we saw this month. I think upper 80s are possible prior to the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 So far it's been a very cool fall after a cool August. More than 2 below normal here for both months. It's very early, and if we can get October to at least be near normal temp wise, that's not bad. The next week looks warm, but thereafter could chill off if the current proggs for +PNA development come to fruition. GFS ensembles also want to kill off the -NAO/AO pretty quickly, so I'm hoping that aspect verifies as well. Looks like a bit of back and forth leaning warm (maybe) after next weekend. should see a quick but strong cool shot following the front next weekend for the period 10/6 - 10/8 or so.. The gfs came closer to the ecmwith the timing of the front and trough coming through sunday pm rather than sat (10/6). Beyond there more back and forth nothing really locking in on guidance likely leaning warmer than normal but take that with some caution as cool was stonger this past two weeks. The recent dryness should allow temps to soar this week but nighttime lows will also be lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 September 2013 ends up averging 67.9...My main analogs 1964 and 1981 were 67.2 and 67.6 for September...October for those years were very cool...I doubt we will see this October that cool...It might be very warm then turn colder later in the month...TWT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 September 2013 ends up averging 67.9...My main analogs 1964 and 1981 were 67.2 and 67.6 for September...October for those years were very cool...I doubt we will see this October that cool...It might be very warm then turn colder later in the month...TWT... Sept here averaged 66.1 which is 1.2 degrees below normal. It was my 10th coolest sept and the avg low temp was the 4th coolest based on my 37 years of record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Sept here averaged 66.1 which is 1.2 degrees below normal. It was my 10th coolest sept and the avg low temp was the 4th coolest based on my 37 years of record. September here was -2.2 below normal with a mean temp of 64.2. Mean high of 75.6 and low of 53.1. Not sure how it ranks, but it seemed to be one of the coolest Septembers I've seen in the past 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 September here was -2.2 below normal with a mean temp of 64.2. Mean high of 75.6 and low of 53.1. Not sure how it ranks, but it seemed to be one of the coolest Septembers I've seen in the past 15 years. EWR 4th coolest of past 15...behind 2000, 2006 and 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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