September 2013 Observations And Discussions

[Allsnow]

What happen to my 80's this weekend?

[Brian5671]

What happen to my 80's this weekend?

Reality struck.

[Isotherm]

This is one of the longest stretches of sun and perfect wx I recall. Last week, this week, and most of next week look like 72/50 and clear type days. Incredible period.          

[Isotherm]

What happen to my 80's this weekend?

 

 

This weekend won't be anywhere near 80 but I think we have a shot at it a couple times mid/late next week. Maybe one or two more beach/pool days for the real die hards.

[SACRUS]

This weekend won't be anywhere near 80 but I think we have a shot at it a couple times mid/late next week. Maybe one or two more beach/pool days for the real die hards.

 

May come close tue but we'll see, cool has been overperofming and warmth mainly underperforming since the 13th.

[winterwarlock]

Saturday I will be at beach...75 and sunshine

[IsentropicLift]

Trend that started west at 12z today and continued at 18z now shifts even further westward at 00z. System nearly makes a "Sandy Hook" on Monday before stalling just offshore.

 

[SnoSki14]

I wonder if it'll end up subtropical. The waters are still warm where it originates from at least and subtropical storms can survive in much colder SSTs than tropical systems. 

[SBUWX23]

It is getting captured by upper low and occluding which is the reason for the west jump. also looks riddled with convective feedback.  this pattern does not support a swing back to the coast.

[bluewave]

The last few runs of the Euro and GFS are beginning to show a warmer pattern emerging

during the first week of October.

 

 

 

[uncle W]

warmth the first part of October doesn't bother me...Warmth near the end of October does...

[Guest Imperator]

I might not be a regular poster but Im a regular reader, and I dont appreciate the loose use of Sandy references. Some of us are still recovering in different ways from Sandy, and some caution, sensitivity and maturity should be used, especially when a situation is no way near that storm. I know Ive been beating this issue to death, but it needs to be said.

Trend that started west at 12z today and continued at 18z now shifts even further westward at 00z. System nearly makes a "Sandy Hook" on Monday before stalling just offshore.

 

[dbc]

warmth the first part of October doesn't bother me...Warmth near the end of October does...

Agreed. I have always attributed a traditional Indian Summer in normal-like weather years in this region to the first week or 2 of October (though I know it applies to a broader time frame then that). Considering the normal-like pattern we've had basically all through 2013, I thoroughly expected a traditional Indian Summer this year and boom there it is in the modeling. We'll see if it verifies.

[earthlight]

I might not be a regular poster but Im a regular reader, and I dont appreciate the loose use of Sandy references. Some of us are still recovering in different ways from Sandy, and some caution, sensitivity and maturity should be used, especially when a situation is no way near that storm. I know Ive been beating this issue to death, but it needs to be said.

 

The premise of using Sandy as a comparison to this storm is just about as ridiculous as it gets. Unfortunately these types of posts tend to become more frequent in the winter, which usually leads to my job becoming  more frustrating over the next several weeks. Hard to understand how little thought people put into their posts.

[earthlight]

The last few runs of the Euro and GFS are beginning to show a warmer pattern emerging

during the first week of October.

 

It's also interesting to see the MREF and other ensemble guidance going for the blocking signal, or at least above normal anomalies over Greenland/Davis Straight, into October. We saw a similar signal last year so it will be interesting to see if and how it pans out.

[Guest Imperator]

The premise of using Sandy as a comparison to this storm is just about as ridiculous as it gets. Unfortunately these types of posts tend to become more frequent in the winter, which usually leads to my job becoming  more frustrating over the next several weeks. Hard to understand how little thought people put into their posts.

 

Thanks John.

[SnoSki14]

Agreed. I have always attributed a traditional Indian Summer in normal-like weather years in this region to the first week or 2 of October (though I know it applies to a broader time frame then that). Considering the normal-like pattern we've had basically all through 2013, I thoroughly expected a traditional Indian Summer this year and boom there it is in the modeling. We'll see if it verifies.

 

I view Indian Summer as a period of warmer weather that follows the first widespread frost/freeze, which we have yet to have. So the warm weather to start October is just a typical warm up that we frequently experience in early fall. Usually we get a frost/freeze in latter October and then a mild period in November, which to me is true Indian summer. 

[SnoSki14]

The premise of using Sandy as a comparison to this storm is just about as ridiculous as it gets. Unfortunately these types of posts tend to become more frequent in the winter, which usually leads to my job becoming  more frustrating over the next several weeks. Hard to understand how little thought people put into their posts.

 

People using "Sandy" so loosely will be a problem, not just for anyone on these forums but the general public and media. It's always the case after a massive storm occurs, like after Katrina when every gulf storm was being compared to her or that it might end up like her. 

[Guest Imperator]

People using "Sandy" so loosely will be a problem, not just for anyone on these forums but the general public and media. It's always the case after a massive storm occurs, like after Katrina when every gulf storm was being compared to her or that it might end up like her. 

 

This week to some degree was a prime example of that. It actually take sthe enjoyment out of tracking potential events that are much more common and benign around our parts. Actually myself and another person that post on DT's facebook page got a local CT blog to remove and retract a story earlier this week attributed to Geoff Fox who was calling the storm a smaller Sandy like redux.

[jm1220]

I might not be a regular poster but Im a regular reader, and I dont appreciate the loose use of Sandy references. Some of us are still recovering in different ways from Sandy, and some caution, sensitivity and maturity should be used, especially when a situation is no way near that storm. I know Ive been beating this issue to death, but it needs to be said.

Agreed. To even use Sandy in the same universe as this system is a disservice. After the devastation Sandy imposed on my town, people freak out now over anything and everything. It was clear from the first day this was on the radar that it could never begin to compare. When you have a deep mid latitude trough with enough energy on its own to spawn a major Nor'easter merge with at one point a major hurricane due to a record block near Greenland, let us know. Hopefully such a situation will never be matched again in our lifetimes. After seeing what I did after that storm, I can't root on hurricanes again.

[jm1220]

This week to some degree was a prime example of that. It actually take sthe enjoyment out of tracking potential events that are much more common and benign around our parts. Actually myself and another person that post on DT's facebook page got a local CT blog to remove and retract a story earlier this week attributed to Geoff Fox who was calling the storm a smaller Sandy like redux.

There is still a ton of misinformation about that storm in the media. A local newspaper, the Herald, still calls Sandy "only a tropical storm when it hit". Other people think "it was only a Nor'easter". People outside of the hardcore weather community don't understand the concept of how a Perfect Storm forms, how a storm can be something of a hurricane and something of a nor'easter through weather systems combining, and how that combination makes storms stronger, not weaker.

[Guest Imperator]

Agreed. To even use Sandy in the same universe as this system is a disservice. After the devastation Sandy imposed on my town, people freak out now over anything and everything. It was clear from the first day this was on the radar that it could never begin to compare. When you have a deep mid latitude trough with enough energy on its own to spawn a major Nor'easter merge with at one point a major hurricane due to a record block near Greenland, let us know. Hopefully such a situation will never be matched again in our lifetimes. After seeing what I did after that storm, I can't root on hurricanes again.

I feel the same, Im in Howard Beach. I know you guys down in Long Beach had it a lot worse, but still its a shared trauma.

[dbc]

I view Indian Summer as a period of warmer weather that follows the first widespread frost/freeze, which we have yet to have. So the warm weather to start October is just a typical warm up that we frequently experience in early fall. Usually we get a frost/freeze in latter October and then a mild period in November, which to me is true Indian summer. 

Fair enough. I have heard many interpretations of Indian Summer and yours is the most common. I always considered it a warm-up in early October after a sustained period of cooler conditions after meteorological summer ends (maybe no evidence of frost yet but at least flirting with it and plenty around the region have already flirted with it just in the last couple of weeks). If we don't have a sustained cool down as we have had this year it is kind of hard to notice Indian Summer lol.

[IsentropicLift]

I might not be a regular poster but Im a regular reader, and I dont appreciate the loose use of Sandy references. Some of us are still recovering in different ways from Sandy, and some caution, sensitivity and maturity should be used, especially when a situation is no way near that storm. I know Ive been beating this issue to death, but it needs to be said.

The reference was purely to the western hook towards the coast. (Nothing in terms of intensity or structure of the storm) If I could ask an honest question, should we not talk about certain topics on this forum just because a few posters may not be able to stomach it? Do the posters in Joplin, MO not talk about tornados anymore? Let's get real here, yes a lot of us were affected and may have lost a lot, but we're not talking about loss of life except in a few very rare circumstances. I'm not trying to downplay what Sandy did, I saw it first hand. Many areas have been hit a lot harder and worse from different storms. The difference is you weren't affected.

[Guest Imperator]

Then call it what it is, a western hook toward the coast.

[IsentropicLift]

Then call it what it is, a western hook toward the coast.

Believe it or not the "Sandy Hook" was more of a pun towards Sandy Hook, NJ because that's about to where the precip made it. I do realize that some people made the Hurricane Sandy reference as well.

 

Back to actual on topic discussion. We might have an early season miller B storm to deal with around the second week of October with a cutter towards the lakes redeveloping off the SE coast next weekend. It actually brings snow to northern Minnesota. That fits well with my idea of something around the time that the NAO makes a jump back towards positive. On the 12z GFS whatever develops gets shunted quickly out to sea.

 

 

[Stormlover74]

The reference was purely to the western hook towards the coast. (Nothing in terms of intensity or structure of the storm) If I could ask an honest question, should we not talk about certain topics on this forum just because a few posters may not be able to stomach it? Do the posters in Joplin, MO not talk about tornados anymore? Let's get real here, yes a lot of us were affected and may have lost a lot, but we're not talking about loss of life except in a few very rare circumstances. I'm not trying to downplay what Sandy did, I saw it first hand. Many areas have been hit a lot harder and worse from different storms. The difference is you weren't affected.

I think in general we shouldn't bring up Sandy every time theres a coastal storm that may or may not hook towards the coast when there is no other comparison to Sandy in terms of the storm that was being tracked.

[IsentropicLift]

I think in general we shouldn't bring up Sandy every time theres a coastal storm that may or may not hook towards the coast when there is no other comparison to Sandy in terms of the storm that was being tracked.

I agree with you, in all fairness I'm not the only poster that brought up Sandy the day the Euro had that "look".

 

Jim Cantore even tweeted it out.

[forkyfork]

the gfs has finally joined the euro in showing 80s next week

[Stormlover74]

I agree with you, in all fairness I'm not the only poster that brought up Sandy the day the Euro had that "look".

 

Jim Cantore even tweeted it out.

Thats because he works at the weather channel. At the end of the day its irresponsible to bring up to the general public especially those that don't understand and just watch the news and weather channel to know if its going to rain tomorrow or not.

 

Like when that guy on channel 4 showed north jersey getting 38" of snow last February because of the NAM snowfall output, meanwhile half the people saw that and thought that was the forecast. Are they stupid? maybe but we have had 30" of snow before so its not out of the realm of possibilities and its his job to know that.