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September 2013 Observations And Discussions

sutherlandfan

By sutherlandfan,
in New York City Metro

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

0z Euro shifted east and now misses the area completely.

 

Yea probably just a surf/swell generator although this mornings gfs is a lot stronger and further west than its previous runs. Again I wouldn't be surprised if models went further west a bit since a near -2 NAO does favor something closer to the coast and there's no big trough moving in to really kick this thing out. 

 

Otherwise it'll be like living in southern California, a dry, mostly sunny weather pattern for at least a good week going from near normal to probably above.

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weathermedic

weathermedic

Posted
Posted

Great discussion from OKX this morning about the potential storm for Sun-Mon:

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...AS VARIOUS BITS OF ENERGY TRAVEL
OVER THE RIDGE AND MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. OTHER THAN MAYBE
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY - THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN THE FORECAST -
AS THESE SHORTWAVES PASS BY...IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT CONSENSUS TO HAVE A REASONABLE
EXPECTATION THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SOME PLACE
AROUND 30N/70W - WITHIN +/- 5 DEGREES OR SO...IN RESPONSE TO THE
VARIOUS SHORTWAVE ENERGIES MOVING/ACTING UPON EACH OTHER AS THEY
STALL OUT NEAR THE BASE OF A TROUGH TO OUR EAST.

THE IMPACT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE TRI-STATE WILL THEN
DEPEND ON THREE THINGS. 1ST - HOW QUICKLY THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE
THAT STARTS OUT TO ITS W AND N SLIDES TO ITS EAST...AS SPLIT FLOW
DEVELOPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE BLOCKING
RIDGE WOULD LEAD TO A WEAKER STORM THAT MOVES NORTHEAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY - SIMILAR TO THE GFS. HOWEVER - THE GFS HAS A KNOWN BIAS OF
TOO QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE AND ERODING DEEP LAYERED RIDGES NEAR THE
EAST COAST...AND OFF WEAKENING AND MOVING OFFSHORE TOO QUICKLY ITS
ASSOCIATED DAMMING SURFACE HIGH. THE ECMWF IN GENERAL PERFORMS
BETTER IN HANDLING THESE TYPES OF RIDGES AND DAMMING HIGHS...SO
WOULD AT LEAST INITIALLY FAVOR A ECMWF LIKE TRACK/TIMING FOR THE
STORM.

THE 2ND ITEM IS THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE CUTOFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD TEND TO BE MOVED
ALONG BY THE MEAN FLOW...AND ALSO IMPACT THE MEAN FLOW LESS...THAN A
STRONGER SYSTEM. THE ECMWF DOES HAVE A TENDENCY TO OVER DO THE
STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...IN IS IN FACT QUITE A BIT - 10 HPA OR SO
- STRONGER THAN MOST OTHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF LOW. THE GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND...COMPARES FAVORABLY WITH MOST OTHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLES WITH
THE STORMS STRENGTH.

THE 3RD THING THAT WILL INFLUENCE HOW MUCH...IF ANY THE COASTAL LOW
WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA IS ITS DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THE
ECMWF HAS A STRONGER TROUGH THAN THE GFS AND SO HAS A QUICKER
PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...VICE THE GFS WITH A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER TROUGH ACTING TO PUSH THE WEAKER GFS SYSTEM OUT A BIT MORE TO
SEA BEFORE EVENTUAL ABSORPTION OF THE WEAKER SYSTEM BY THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. GIVEN THE BIASES NOTED FOR ITEMS 1 AND 2 ABOVE...THIS
IS A TOSS UP.

THERE IS A WILD CARD AT PLAY HERE - THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF
TYPHOON PABUK IN THE WEST PACIFIC. UNFORTUNATELY ITS EXACTS IMPACTS
ON HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT ARE NOT KNOWN AS THIS SORT OF THING IS
GENERALLY NOT WELL HANDLED BY THE MODELS.

FOR NOW...WILL RUN WITH A ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR TRACK...BUT MORE
TOWARDS THE GFS FOR THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS WOULD
EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO BE DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. THINGS SHOULD
THEN DRY OUT FROM W TO E MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM EXITS TO THE E/NE
AND TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A RESULT. BASED ON GOING WITH THE
WEAKER SOLUTION OF THE GFS NO SIGNIFICANT WIND/COASTAL FLOODING
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING THE SWELLS FROM THE STORM LIKELY CREATING AN ENHANCED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES.

HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...AND THE
WILDCARD OF TYPHOON PABUK...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE FORECAST AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THE OVERALL SCENARIO WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Great discussion from OKX this morning about the potential storm for Sun-Mon:

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...AS VARIOUS BITS OF ENERGY TRAVEL

OVER THE RIDGE AND MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. OTHER THAN MAYBE

SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY - THOUGH

CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN THE FORECAST -

AS THESE SHORTWAVES PASS BY...IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD

COVER THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT CONSENSUS TO HAVE A REASONABLE

EXPECTATION THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SOME PLACE

AROUND 30N/70W - WITHIN +/- 5 DEGREES OR SO...IN RESPONSE TO THE

VARIOUS SHORTWAVE ENERGIES MOVING/ACTING UPON EACH OTHER AS THEY

STALL OUT NEAR THE BASE OF A TROUGH TO OUR EAST.

THE IMPACT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE TRI-STATE WILL THEN

DEPEND ON THREE THINGS. 1ST - HOW QUICKLY THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE

THAT STARTS OUT TO ITS W AND N SLIDES TO ITS EAST...AS SPLIT FLOW

DEVELOPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE BLOCKING

RIDGE WOULD LEAD TO A WEAKER STORM THAT MOVES NORTHEAST FAIRLY

QUICKLY - SIMILAR TO THE GFS. HOWEVER - THE GFS HAS A KNOWN BIAS OF

TOO QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE AND ERODING DEEP LAYERED RIDGES NEAR THE

EAST COAST...AND OFF WEAKENING AND MOVING OFFSHORE TOO QUICKLY ITS

ASSOCIATED DAMMING SURFACE HIGH. THE ECMWF IN GENERAL PERFORMS

BETTER IN HANDLING THESE TYPES OF RIDGES AND DAMMING HIGHS...SO

WOULD AT LEAST INITIALLY FAVOR A ECMWF LIKE TRACK/TIMING FOR THE

STORM.

THE 2ND ITEM IS THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE CUTOFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS

OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD TEND TO BE MOVED

ALONG BY THE MEAN FLOW...AND ALSO IMPACT THE MEAN FLOW LESS...THAN A

STRONGER SYSTEM. THE ECMWF DOES HAVE A TENDENCY TO OVER DO THE

STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...IN IS IN FACT QUITE A BIT - 10 HPA OR SO

- STRONGER THAN MOST OTHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH THE

SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF LOW. THE GFS ON THE OTHER

HAND...COMPARES FAVORABLY WITH MOST OTHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLES WITH

THE STORMS STRENGTH.

THE 3RD THING THAT WILL INFLUENCE HOW MUCH...IF ANY THE COASTAL LOW

WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA IS ITS DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THE

ECMWF HAS A STRONGER TROUGH THAN THE GFS AND SO HAS A QUICKER

PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...VICE THE GFS WITH A SLIGHTLY

WEAKER TROUGH ACTING TO PUSH THE WEAKER GFS SYSTEM OUT A BIT MORE TO

SEA BEFORE EVENTUAL ABSORPTION OF THE WEAKER SYSTEM BY THE NORTHERN

STREAM TROUGH. GIVEN THE BIASES NOTED FOR ITEMS 1 AND 2 ABOVE...THIS

IS A TOSS UP.

THERE IS A WILD CARD AT PLAY HERE - THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF

TYPHOON PABUK IN THE WEST PACIFIC. UNFORTUNATELY ITS EXACTS IMPACTS

ON HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT ARE NOT KNOWN AS THIS SORT OF THING IS

GENERALLY NOT WELL HANDLED BY THE MODELS.

FOR NOW...WILL RUN WITH A ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR TRACK...BUT MORE

TOWARDS THE GFS FOR THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS WOULD

EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO BE DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF

SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. THINGS SHOULD

THEN DRY OUT FROM W TO E MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM EXITS TO THE E/NE

AND TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A RESULT. BASED ON GOING WITH THE

WEAKER SOLUTION OF THE GFS NO SIGNIFICANT WIND/COASTAL FLOODING

IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE MAIN

THREAT BEING THE SWELLS FROM THE STORM LIKELY CREATING AN ENHANCED

RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES.

HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...AND THE

WILDCARD OF TYPHOON PABUK...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE FORECAST AND

POSSIBLY EVEN THE OVERALL SCENARIO WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW

DAYS.

 

The block doesn't look to be as strong as the one that steered Sandy into New Jersey. Therefore it will want to veer east of that track. Doesn't mean it wouldn't affect us, but overall the pattern looks progressive enough that there's plenty of chance this just escapes out to sea. Even if it does affect us, it doesn't look like a very serious impact. Not every system with the word "Tropical" or "Subtropical" in front of it is a huge impact.

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

What I would give to just have something to track on the models for more than a day or two. It seems like the models haven't had anything worth looking at since February. We can get some pretty intense early season noreasters in September and especially October. Hopefully we can get some exciting weather soon.

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Guest Imperator

Guest Imperator

Posted
Posted

I Dont mean this for this board particularly, but Ive never seen so much huffing and puffing over a potential routine noreaster. Is this the new normal after last year?

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

I Dont mean this for this board particularly, but Ive never seen so much huffing and puffing over a potential routine noreaster. Is this the new normal after last year?

The 00z 9/24 run of the Euro had this as a warm core system for at least part of its life. That and the crazy left turn that some of the modeling had led to some excitement. What else do we have to talk about anyway. Nobody gives a crap if your forecasted low was 40 and you hit 39.

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

Summer ended abruptly on the morning of Friday the 13th this year. Last September there were warm/humid pool days until about the 22nd I believe.

 

2010 - 2013, especially 10 and 11 were significantly warmer aug/sep.   Far too cool too early for my liking. 

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

Summer ended abruptly on the morning of Friday the 13th this year. Last September there were warm/humid pool days until about the 22nd I believe.

 

Seems that the cooler won out the rolller coaster depsite the guidance the week of the 9th saying otherwise similar to the end of July.  This past saturday was very late summer likebut that was an oasis in this early fall regime.

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

I would still look for some sort of significant weather event to impact the region in the next 1-2 weeks as the NAO transitions back to positive. Historically we've seen some of our biggest coastals with a transitioning NAO.

 

 

 

 

I agree Yanks and if you have been watching the guidance theyve been failry persistent in amplifying a trough between oct 5/6 and 7/8th.  I would watch that period after we get through this weekend near miss.

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Guest Imperator

Guest Imperator

Posted
Posted

The 00z 9/24 run of the Euro had this as a warm core system for at least part of its life. That and the crazy left turn that some of the modeling had led to some excitement. What else do we have to talk about anyway. Nobody gives a crap if your forecasted low was 40 and you hit 39.

 

The issue isnt what's talked about in here. Its a weather forum. The problem is the media and weather-media companies like Accuweather who spin and hype things for ratings. The February blizzard was a key example. While it was a big winter event, it was definitely not unprecedented for our area. Yet for the first time I could ever remember there was a run on gasoline and other panicked behavior as if Sandy was coming again.

 

Just a little background: I live down in Howard Beach, Queens and was directly affected by Sandy. While others had it worse than me in terms of damages, it was still an ordeal. Im not ashamed to say I was diagnosed with Sandy related PTSD. Whereas before I would be "Oh cool a noreaster is coming!" or "Oh cool a blizzard!" now every storm that comes around (even a potential one that doesnt materialize) causes anxiety. It's sad because I love following the weather ,but a hobby has now become a thorn. There are many of us out there who have been seriously affected by Sandy more than just material damages. Sorry to vent and share my issues, but if I come across as abrasive in my post sometimes, I apologize.

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