IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Taking a quick glance at 10mb winds on the 00z GGEM, all the wind would be on the east side and offshore verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I think the GFS took a step closer to the Euro at 12z, If the Euro has a similar track at its 12z, I think we might have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Blocking signal showing up on the models with a persistant east coast trough and a negative NAO in place. We have seen some of our biggest weather events right as the NAO started to swing back positive. Yea good point Yanks, I think the NAO looked very similar for both Irene and Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 12z euro out to 84 hrs. system is stalled by bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 12z euro out to 84 hrs. system is stalled by bermuda Where are you getting it from? I have it on a paid site only out to 48 hours. System is sitting off the Carolina coast at that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Where are you getting it from? I have it on a paid site only out to 48 hours. System is sitting off the Carolina coast at that hour. stormvista out to hr 102 still stalled west of bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 hr 108 its moving nw towards the coast. east of obx by 300 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 hr 114 still retrograding west. stronger system then last nights 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 hr 108 its moving nw towards the coast. east of obx by 300 miles For some reason weatherbell is stuck at hour 48. Hopefully this run of the Euro still makes it interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 hr 120 100 miles east of obx. still retrograding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 That's one hell of a trough at hour 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 hr 120 100 miles east of obx. still retrograding wow impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 hr 132 150 miles east of delmarva. very slow mover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I'll be dammed, look at that high pressure sitting to the north. No room to escape.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 hr 132 150 miles east of delmarva. very slow mover moving straight north from there. hr 144 just s of the tip of long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Sub 998 mb at hour 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 SST are not that warm either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 SST are not that warm either It's not going to be purely warm core so it doesn't really matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 SST are not that warm either up here, especially for a slow mover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I don't have access to QPF outputs for the euro. Hopefully someone that has that access can post them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Just due to the -NAO I believe the system may end up closer to the coast than depicted. No matter what happens, it's not a particularly strong system, probably would be considerate a moderate nor'easter in the fall and winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 It's not going to be purely warm core so it doesn't really matter. Yea exactly, unless it hangs out east of the OB for a few days before racing north, that could make things interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Just due to the -NAO I believe the system may end up closer to the coast than depicted. No matter what happens, it's not a particularly strong system, probably would be considerate a moderate nor'easter in the fall and winter. All I got from the this run of the Euro is that the storm is still there and still sitting off the NJ coast on Sunday. We have a lot of work to do from here to make it more than a breezy rainy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I don't have access to QPF outputs for the euro. Hopefully someone that has that access can post them. Its just about all out on WU now, looks pretty impressive (heaviest precip on the south side this time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Its just about all out on WU now, looks pretty impressive (heaviest precip on the south side this time) Are we looking at massive amounts of rainfall or is this more of a 1-2" run of the mill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Are we looking at massive amounts of rainfall or is this more of a 1-2" run of the mill? Prob a 1-3" depending on the track, but who knows at this point - lol I am happy that we have something to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Prob a 1-3" depending on the track, but who knows at this point - lol I am happy that we have something to track 12Z Euro Precip for JFK is around .50" from 12z Sunday to 12Z Monday (This mornings run had closer to .75") Lowest Pressure is 1005mb (vs 1001mb this morning) at JFK. Center stays SE of Montauk Point. Heading NE into Nova Scotia. I have Accuwx Pro. Definitely more easterly than this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 The blocky high pressure north of it will make it tough to steer it out to sea, but "luckily" (I know a lot of you want to see a massive coastal storm) there's no major trough and energy to phase into it and the initial system looks a lot weaker than Sandy did. The overall mean jet stream is still considerably north of where it would be in late October so it's a lot harder for a feature to dig far enough south to phase in like what happened last Halloween. So I don't see this being a particularly intense storm for us and hopefully wouldn't destroy the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Irene in terms of impacts. Biggest impacts would be heavy rain and gusty winds. The GGEM then has a similar setup again day ten Part of what made Sandy so bad was the trough that phased into it and added baroclinic energy with tropical energy. It was also a cat 3 briefly near Jamaica. Irene was still an intense hurricane near the Bahamas before steering up this way and being destroyed by dry air. Any interaction with the main jet looks very minor if at all this time with no blocking and the main jet position so far north. So I don't see this being very intense up here, but maybe still a notable enough system to cause some coastal flood concerns if it does make it to near the coast (more likely if the high pressure ridge east of it strengthens in the future). Maybe a weak tropical/subtropical system with the impact of a general nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Part of what made Sandy so bad was the trough that phased into it and added baroclinic energy with tropical energy. It was also a cat 3 briefly near Jamaica. Irene was still an intense hurricane near the Bahamas before steering up this way and being destroyed by dry air. Any interaction with the main jet looks very minor if at all this time with no blocking and the main jet position so far north. So I don't see this being very intense up here, but maybe still a notable enough system to cause some coastal flood concerns if it does make it to near the coast (more likely if the high pressure ridge east of it strengthens in the future). Maybe a weak tropical/subtropical system with the impact of a general nor'easter. Yea agreed, But I bet any word of a tropical system coming up this way and people will freak out - Make sure your tanks are full lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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