Snow_Miser Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 The models backed away from the coastal system they had yesterday. Now it looks like a glorified cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 If we can get better timing, I think Saturday could see a chance of some storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 If we can get better timing, I think Saturday could see a chance of some storms Seems like the focus is on late Saturday night into Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Seems like the focus is on late Saturday night into Sunday morning yea, NAM seems to bring it earlier. 6-8 hours faster would give us a decent shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Seems like the focus is on late Saturday night into Sunday morning Euro was the slowest, right? Purely overnight it looked like. GFS was very late evening Saturday, while NAM was noticeably quicker. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Euro was the slowest, right? Purely overnight it looked like. GFS was very late evening Saturday, while NAM was noticeably quicker. Meh. Yea exactly, we seem to have had bad timing all year...lets see this time, if anything it will probably be a good rainfall for LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 I'd say after Sandy, we should welcome it. I am actually enjoying the normal regime we have enjoyed for most of 2013 and I love the extremes just as much as anyone here but admittedly I needed a break after Sandy even if my backyard was only slightly impacted. My old haunts growing up along the Jersey shore of course took it on the chin and I remain distraught over the damage that was done down there. Certainly not wishing for another Sandy or anything close it it (hard to believe it'll be a year since and still the danger of an east coast storm is not completely absent yet this season), but a little variation or some good convective action would have been nice. The good news is that we might see a rather spectacular foliage season if this current weather pattern keeps up, already noticing colors popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Yea exactly, we seem to have had bad timing all year...lets see this time, if anything it will probably be a good rainfall for LI Yeah the NAM brings precip early Saturday evening and then blasts us but is long gone by morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Certainly not wishing for another Sandy or anything close it it (hard to believe it'll be a year since and still the danger of an east coast storm is not completely absent yet this season), but a little variation or some good convective action would have been nice. The good news is that we might see a rather spectacular foliage season if this current weather pattern keeps up, already noticing colors popping up. Yea, it is really hard to believe its been a year already. Man I remember I did not get any sleep that entire week leading up to the storm, crazy how time flies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Looks like a few inches of rain area wide on Saturday night and into Sunday. 00z 4k NAM simulated radar is an absolute beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Looks like a few inches of rain area wide on Saturday night and into Sunday. 00z 4k NAM simulated radar is an absolute beast. NAM gives us about a half inch, most of it after midnight tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Enjoy 80 and summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Now at a -0.2 temp departure here on the month. Next week or so looks near normal overall. Averages quickly declining now into the 70/50 day/night range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 It's a usual cycle out here of dry summers due to the influence of the marine layer, and then more active rest of the year with nor'easters and coastal storms. I think we catch up in the fall/winter. We have a long way to go before we can call this a real drought. I dissagree when trees start turning brown (and some are actualy dead) you are in a true drought. We have had less then an inch of rain in Wantagh since July. Thats nuts and really bad for plants in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 I dissagree when trees start turning brown (and some are actualy dead) you are in a true drought. We have had less then an inch of rain in Wantagh since July. Thats nuts and really bad for plants in general.Have had 5.50 in. of rain here since aug. 1st so much drier to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 October 1st starts the official snow season...last year was average but did have one good storm...many loose change events before February...The November storm came to early but it still counts...the farmers almanac is calling for a November snowfall...we are in a cycle when NYC is getting early snowfalls...October 29th 2011 and November 7th 2012 were huge storms for so early in the season...then nothing in December...I rather have a more normal season with snow in December instead of snow with the leaves still on the trees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 October 1st starts the official snow season...last year was average but did have one good storm...many loose change events before February...The November storm came to early but it still counts...the farmers almanac is calling for a November snowfall...we are in a cycle when NYC is getting early snowfalls...October 29th 2011 and November 7th 2012 were huge storms for so early in the season...then nothing in December...I rather have a more normal season with snow in December instead of snow with the leaves still on the trees... From your lips to God's ears. After the past two winters I hope I don't see a flake until December 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 October 1st starts the official snow season...last year was average but did have one good storm...many loose change events before February...The November storm came to early but it still counts...the farmers almanac is calling for a November snowfall...we are in a cycle when NYC is getting early snowfalls...October 29th 2011 and November 7th 2012 were huge storms for so early in the season...then nothing in December...I rather have a more normal season with snow in December instead of snow with the leaves still on the trees... We also came very close at the end of October 2008 with the heavy snows missing to our west. The lake effect crew got their historic early season hit in October 2006. http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_17731.html?from=blog_permalink_month http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/storm101206.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 What is the website that has all the snow storms that have impacted new jersey since like 1990. I just got a new computer and i lost all my bookmarks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 The Canadian is on crack but since we have nothing really else to talk about here you go. Comes from the gulf and across Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 What is the website that has all the snow storms that have impacted new jersey since like 1990. I just got a new computer and i lost all my bookmarks. It's Raymond Martin's site: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/ Last year's is not yet up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 It's Raymond Martin's site: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/ Last year's is not yet up. Thanks, lets just hope we have a good year this time. Last year was lackluster here on Staten Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Thanks, lets just hope we have a good year this time. Last year was lackluster here on Staten Island. It was about a normal season for the immediate NYC area and much above normal as you headed east through Long Island and up into New England. Par for the course with a Nina winter. Hopefully this season we have more of a STJ influence and more chances for storms that blow up before it's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Latest NAM and GFS are in good agreement on a period of heavy rainfall tonight with embedded convection. Some areas could see well over an inch with isolated spots getting over 2" in heavier convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 I had a few sprinkles a hour ago and the Sun came out for a while...cloudy now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Strong signal for a +EPO/-AO/-NAO pattern to end September and start October. The +EPO this time of year is what we usually see when the Pacific is in more of a Nina mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Had it not been for the Alaskan vortex we would be much cooler going forward, though I don't mind having it in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Had it not been for the Alaskan vortex we would be much cooler going forward, though I don't mind having it in September. It's a really mild pattern for Canada this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 0.21 dropped with those showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Strong signal for a +EPO/-AO/-NAO pattern to end September and start October. The +EPO this time of year is what we usually see when the Pacific is in more of a Nina mode. test8.gif I was lurking around and was intrigued in the fact you mentioned this because I happened to blog about it a couple days ago. http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2013/09/pacific-pattern-taking-on-familiar-form.html It does look like this +EPO/-PNA pattern will continue for awhile. I do not think the NAO stays negative for long either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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