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September 2013 Observations And Discussions


sutherlandfan

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It's crazy how much sea ice the arctic has added this year up 67% y/y

 

- http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/09/14/earth-gains-a-record-amount-of-sea-ice-in-2013-earth-has-gained-19000-manhattans-of-sea-ice-since-this-date-last-year-the-largest-increase-on-record/

- http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/09/12/67-increase-in-arctic-ice-extent-since-last-year/

 

With most of the new ice on the North American side, anyone think this will have any implications for our winter? More cold blasts?

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The models are finally beginning to show a pattern change to a more +EPO/-AO pattern.

It's impressive how the previous -EPO/+AO pattern dominated since last spring.

 

attachicon.gif500.gif

 

attachicon.giff120.gif

 

attachicon.giff240.gif

 

Still looks to average near or above normal from Sept. 18th forward, with the main PV over Alaska/Asia. But with the huge positive anomaly 500mb heights over Hudson Bay area, there's potential for cut-offs.

 

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Models have some big surface highs slipping into the Northeast the next 7-10 days. Looks like plenty of chilly nights coming up with daytime highs generally near normal. Below normal early this week, above normal late week, followed by another cool shot next weekend and rebound thereafter. Very back and forth regime.

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todays forecast is more negative for the ao nao going foward...It doesn't mean it will happen as the models say but they are usually on to something when the forecast is that low...I'm hoping it leeds to a cool October making the 1964 and 1981 analogs stronger for the winter...

I noticed that, it's the strongest signal in weeks and it would really set us up nicely if the NAO goes negative for October.

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Models have some big surface highs slipping into the Northeast the next 7-10 days. Looks like plenty of chilly nights coming up with daytime highs generally near normal. Below normal early this week, above normal late week, followed by another cool shot next weekend and rebound thereafter. Very back and forth regime.

 

 

Looks like the roller coaster continues but still think the period 9/18 - 9/22 should be mainly above normal with fri/sat the warmest.   Just back from a quick trip to Florida and it  was quite chilly last night down to 44 by me.

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