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September 2013 Observations And Discussions


sutherlandfan

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No real changes on the overnight guidance for the upcoming week to 10 days. The cooldown 9/13 - 9/17 is followed by an overall  warmer pattern 9/18 - 9/22 with higher heights into the east and a trough into the west coast.  The peak of the cooldown will be fri night and sat (9/13-14) with a chance for more late season heat 9/19-20.   

here are late season warmth periods from 9/21 forward...

list of years with at least three straight days 80 or better for late Sept. and on...2005 had three form the 21st-23rd but it was the end of a long warm spell...

Year..consecutive 80+ Max.

1881..9/23-9/28......6...91 mei analog year

1891..10/3-10/5......3...86

1895..9/20-9/23......4...97

1898..10/3-10/5......3...81

1905..9/28-9/30......3...88

1914..9/20-9/24......5...95

1920..9/23-9/26......4...88

1921..9/28-9/30......3...87 mei analog year

1922..9/30-10/3......4...88

1927..9/30-10/2......3...90

1930..9/20-9/26......7...87

1934..9/23-9/27......5...83

1941..9/21-9/23......3...91

1941..10/4-10/6......3...94

1946..9/25-9/27......3...83

1946..10/4-10/7......4...87

1948..9/27-9/29......3...84 mei analog year

1949..10/9-10/12....4...88

1950..10/1-10/3......3...86

1951..9/19-9/23......5...85

1954..10/1-10/4......4...86

1954..10/11-10/14..4...87

1959..9/21-9/24......4...90

1959..9/27-9/30......4...83

1959..10/4-10/6......3...88

1961..9/22-9/25......4...90

1965..9/21-9/23......3...88

1968..9/17-9/26....10...87

1968..10/1-10/3......3...85

1970..9/21-9/26......6...94

1972..9/25-9/27......3...86

1980..9/21-9/23......3...94

1984..9/23-9/25......3...86

2004..9/21-9/23......3...82

2007..9/25-9/27......3...87

2007..10/4-10/8......5...87

2010..9/22-9/25......4...89

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

124 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>071-131730-

NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-

NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-

SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-

EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-

EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-

NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-

124 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS

EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN

CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE

INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER

CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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As expected with today's convective issues, pretty much everyone had one 90F day in this warm spell, albeit one very, very hot 90F+ day.

 

Here in CNJ I managed upper 80s before the T-storm came through.

Yeah like tue it came down to clouds.  2 more hours we would have hit 90.

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