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September 2013 Observations And Discussions


sutherlandfan

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Highest 9-10 or later temperature at Newark since 1990.

 

Highest temperatures at Newark from 9-10 on since 1983:

 

9-14-08........92

9-13-05........94

9-13-94........92

9-15-93........94

9-16-91........95

9-17-91........95

9-10-89........97

9-10-83........98

9-11-83........99

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Just hit 95 here in CNJ (Monroe).  Highest since late July.  Only made it to 91 in August. 

 

 

ISO - the pool is ready, bring the Corona's :sun:

 

 

Sounds like a plan, way ahead of you on that one. Water's up to a refreshing low 80s now.

 

And lo and behold there's our heat advisory for NYC now.

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I hope that 1972 and 1983 aren't omens but basically the same thing happened. After some July heat in 1972 and lots of July heat in 1983 August cooled measurably. 1972 and 1983 both heated up in late August. September in both months featured heat and some record highs. Even 1972 had a record high of 92 two Sundays after Labor Day.

 

UNc has been tracking 1964 and 2007 is similar ENSO-wise, it will be interesting to see where we head as we approach the End of Sep and Oct.

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Sounds like a plan, way ahead of you on that one. Water's up to a refreshing low 80s now.

 

And lo and behold there's our heat advisory for NYC now.

I'm very surprised Mt Holly didn't put anything out. Usually the Philly area is in an excessive heat warning and now not even an advisory despite 100+ HI at Somerville/Morristown/Trenton

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the gfes shows a strong AK vortex from day 10 to the end of the run with warmth continuing

 

f240.gif

 

 

Guidance has been hinting the back and forth pattern transitions into a more sustained (less extreme) warmup between the 9/18 and 9/22.  Beyong there it way out in lala land but an overall above normal looks likely through the 22nd with trough into the west and ridging into the east.  There looks to be perhaps one more chance at some 90 degree readings later next week as heights have been forecast to rise near 588DM and 850 temps approach 18c.  

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Guidance has been hinting the back and forth pattern transitions into a more sustained (less extreme) warmup between the 9/18 and 9/22. Beyong there it way out in lala land but an overall above normal looks likely through the 22nd with trough into the west and ridging into the east. There looks to be perhaps one more chance at some 90 degree readings later next week as heights have been forecast to rise near 588DM and 850 temps approach 18c.

Would be a good opportunity for tropical activity with ridging in the northeast, I know the gfs had a few runs with activity near the Bahamas and the Euro did to with what looked to be 98L.

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Highs in the low 70s is not exactly cold for this time of year...5 degrees below normal and lows maybe 7-8 degree cooler for lows....meanwhile we have postive departures today of plus 17 for highs and late next week warmth will negate this weekends cool shot. September is headed above normal

 

The CFS forecast of a an above normal September looks like another good call.

 

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We all knew this will be an above normal sept, we very seldom get 2 below normal months in a row. I Currently live in western burbs of philly but I'm moving back north again before  winter and I only got up to 90.....looks like the heat is further north.

 

 

The core of the warmest 850s was to your north and east this afternoon. N NJ and NYC had the best combination of sunshine and warm 850mb temps out of anyone in our area. Boston was also extremely hot today -- it's currently 96 there, and their dewpoint is only 65, which is more suitable for mixing. Notice how their 850mb flow is due west rather than southwest, so their boundary layer is less moist. 

 

t85w3.gif

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Highs in the low 70s is not exactly cold for this time of year...5 degrees below normal and lows maybe 7-8 degree cooler for lows....meanwhile we have postive departures today of plus 17 for highs and late next week warmth will negate this weekends cool shot. September is headed above normal

Friday through at least Tuesday temps will average around 7-10 or more below normal EACH day. Some days it may not even touch 70.

I don't think next weeks "potential warmth" will negate much of this upcoming cool stretch.

It might not be as warm as you might be thinking or wishing later next week. We shall see.

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