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September 2013 Observations And Discussions


sutherlandfan

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I don't think Saturdays going to be much different from this past Monday. looks like most places crack 70.

absolutely should be an advisory today. even if it wasn't September the heat indices of 100+ warrant it

I disagree about Saturday, I think most places stay in the 60s. It'll be close to Monday but a bit cooler, the lows could be colder for many especially under ideal radiating conditions.

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Lol at nws asleep at the wheel with no advisories...makes no sense

Dog days for sure

Not asleep, I think they were taken a bit by surprise though

 

STILL ON TRACK FOR HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH 12Z

KALY AND KOKX SUGGESTING MID 90S POSSIBLE AWAY FROM AREAS

INFLUENCED BY SEABREEZE. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG

SEABREEZE GIVEN UNUSUAL WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HELPING TO DRIVE

NEARSHORE DENSITY GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR SEABREEZE...SO NOT

EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY REACH QUITE THAT HOT

INLAND...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED READINGS IN THE MID 90S CANNOT BE

COMPLETELY RULED OUT. APPEARS DEWPOINTS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE

LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING...THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT

INDICES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY

RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX READING FOR AN HOUR IN

NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD PRECLUDE THIS IN

NYC. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS ON POTENTIAL

FOR RECORD HIGHS.

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HX of 105 at ewr with no advisory :lol:

 

NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-

SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-

WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-

WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-

NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-

1255 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A HEAT

ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...LOWER HUDSON

VALLEY...FAIRFIELD COUNTY AND NORTHERN NEW HAVEN AND MIDDLESEX

COUNTIES.

* HAZARDS...COMBINATION OF HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...UP TO 103 DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID

90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

* TIMING...THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...IF NO PROTECTIVE ACTION IS TAKEN...INITIAL IMPACTS

INCLUDE FATIGUE. SUNSTROKE...MUSCLE CRAMPS...AND/OR HEAT

EXHAUSTION OR HEAT STROKE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

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that's like issuing a winter storm warning after 6" has fallen

yep. for the city too. Not sure why a separate advisory for 1 degree.

/O.NEW.KOKX.HT.Y.0009.130911T1655Z-130911T2200Z/NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN QUEENS-1255 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A HEATADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING.* LOCATIONS...THE FIVE BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY.* HAZARDS...COMBINATION OF HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.* HEAT INDEX VALUES...UP TO 102 DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER  TO MID 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.* TIMING...HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...IF NO PROTECTIVE ACTION IS TAKEN...INITIAL IMPACTS  INCLUDE FATIGUE. SUNSTROKE...MUSCLE CRAMPS...AND/OR HEAT  EXHAUSTION OR HEAT STROKE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
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I disagree about Saturday, I think most places stay in the 60s. It'll be close to Monday but a bit cooler, the lows could be colder for many especially under ideal radiating conditions.

 

 

Agree. 850's are currently progged around +5/+6c for Saturday afternoon which should yield upper 60s for most, 40s at night for most. Cold shot early next week looks just as impressive particularly for NE of NYC into New England. Most of the interior Northeast will have had their first 32F by mid next week.

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winds stay up friday night and the airmass modifies as it comes east so this cool shot won't be impressive... especially compared to the +10 to +20 of today

Yeah that was my point, and last friday many places barely hit 70 and had overnight lows in the 40s. Average high of 78, EWR probably hits 71 or 72 and thats the coolest of this cool shot

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It shouldn't be a surprise. People saying summer was over in early august were foolish.

I hope that 1972 and 1983 aren't omens but basically the same thing happened. After some July heat in 1972 and lots of July heat in 1983 August cooled measurably. 1972 and 1983 both heated up in late August. September in both months featured heat and some record highs. Even 1972 had a record high of 92 two Sundays after Labor Day.
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