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September 2013 Observations And Discussions


sutherlandfan

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One last hurrah for the pools or do we exceed 85+ again mid/late next week? I think we'll probably be back into the 80s by D 10 but we'll probably be done with 90s after Wednesday. Climo is against us at this point though we've seen hot shots to 90F for another few weeks.

 

 

9//17 - 9/21 might offer the next potential for 85+ or even a late season 90. 

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forecast mid level temps are warmer than 1983... maybe it was a dry airmass 

it was... the max dewpoint was 66 in the morning before mixing to near 60 during the afternoon.  tue-thurs is going to be entirely different with dewpoints in the 70s

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1983/9/11/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

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forecast mid level temps are warmer than 1983... maybe it was a dry airmass 

1983's heat wave was quite dry from what I remember. I was on the Jersey Shore playing beach volleyball and suddenly felt quite hot. As I drove back to Rockland County I heard that KNYC hit 99.

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9//17 - 9/21 might offer the next potential for 85+ or even a late season 90.

Will the threat of 90s ever die? I know they are possible as late as October but they are so annoyingly grotesque by now.

I know I'm dreading these next few days, the recent stretch of 70s and low 50s at night have been ideal.

The NAO is concerning me somewhat, by now I'm hoping it would start decreasing instead of staying very positive. Hopefully in October it turns around.

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I went to a wedding with my future wife on 9/10/83 in Brooklyn by the Verrazano Bridge...It was a brutal day to wear a suit...If it wasn't humid it sure felt like it was...1983 had another heat push later on in the month before the pattern changed...

 

Unc, I also attened a wedding for my cousin that year in brroklyn.  Gargiulo's if im not mistaken.  I have to ask if it was the 10 or later in the month.  I remember roasting and maybe some later night tstorms.   it will be interesting to see if 64, 83 or 2007 analogs continue to carry weight into oct.

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Any chance for a heatwave will start with tomorrow and how much of the clouds linger.  We'll see how much we can clear up tomorrow which would allow 90 degree readings in some of the warmer spots.  It looks mostly clouds all the way back into C-PA where some showers are pushing through. Dewpoint temps slowly rising towards the 60s

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Unc, I also attened a wedding for my cousin that year in brroklyn.  Gargiulo's if im not mistaken.  I have to ask if it was the 10 or later in the month.  I remember roasting and maybe some later night tstorms.   it will be interesting to see if 64, 83 or 2007 analogs continue to carry weight into oct.

Gargiulos was flooded during Sandy...I went there when I lived in Brooklyn 20 yrs ago...it was 94 and 93 on 9/19-20/1983...My first date with my wife was 8/28/83...There were big thunderstorms that night...(Sunday)...A record rainfall was set that evening...

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Any chance for a heatwave will start with tomorrow and how much of the clouds linger.  We'll see how much we can clear up tomorrow which would allow 90 degree readings in some of the warmer spots.  It looks mostly clouds all the way back into C-PA where some showers are pushing through. Dewpoint temps slowly rising towards the 60s

 

Looks cloudy for the next few hours (at least) so 90s may be a stretch today except for parts of c/s-nj

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Visible satellite indicates plenty of clouds spilling SE in conjunction with the strong warm air advection occurring in the mid levels.

 

While today's the type of day we'll spike 5-10F once we break out into sun, I'm not sure that happens until mid afternoon for many of us. I didn't think 90s were on the table for today but mid 80s still look possible if we can get at least a few hours of afternoon sun.

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Visible satellite indicates plenty of clouds spilling SE in conjunction with the strong warm air advection occurring in the mid levels.

 

While today's the type of day we'll spike 5-10F once we break out into sun, I'm not sure that happens until mid afternoon for many of us. I didn't think 90s were on the table for today but mid 80s still look possible if we can get at least a few hours of afternoon sun.

 

Yeah i think we see more breacks towards and after 1.  May still make a run at 90 especially in c/s-nj. 

 

 

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  the back edge of the convective debris is pushing through the sw half of the area now

 Yeah i was thinking by 1 and it looks right on time.  Temps should rocket the next 4 hours.  We'll see if we can make 90.  I think today was the hardest day of the 3 with Thu having such a high lauching pad with lows in the mid 70s.. 

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1PM Roundup.  Should be clear in the next hour.  It will be a close call for 90 in the warmer places but not out of the question

 

TEB: 79

NYC: 79

EWR: 83

LGA:  80

JFK: 79

ISP:  78

New Bnswk: 82

TTN: 81

 

I'm curious as to why we'd see any 90s today? I can't find any high temp forecasts over 86-87 even in the warm spots of central NJ.

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