Geos Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 Thought I'd do another weather project since it's been pretty boring lately. I looked at 51 locations across and near the subforum and found all the first 32° ( solid frost level) readings from 2003-2012. Later on in the fall, I'll go back and add what the dates were this year. Many locations have averaged earlier then normal frosts in the last 10 years. That's interesting because we've had some warm Autumns in the region, but I'm thinking the diurnal temperature spreads in the Autumn months have become greater, earlier. The 30 year frost average dates; at least some of them, are a bit sketchy. Found some conflicting dates out there, but tried to choose the most reasonable and trustworthy ones. If anyone finds a different date(s) that is official post it below. Below in the 2003-2012 column, green represents an earlier change in the average first 32° low date (frost) and orange represents a later change in the first 32° low date. Here is a map, with the past 10 year average of first 32° lows plotted along with the airport ID's. You can definitely tell the effect of the Great Lakes on the first 32° readings, especially as you travel east of MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 Wow neat! That really puts into perspective the effect of warm lake erie on Cleve temps early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 22, 2013 Author Share Posted August 22, 2013 Wow neat! That really puts into perspective the effect of warm lake erie on Cleve temps early on. Lake Erie definitely has an effect. UHI for the bigger cities does also. Likely depends how built up it is around the obs site. Looks like the earliest frosts for the majority of the sub forum came in 2003 and 2012. Quite a few early frosts in IA, MN, and WI in September of 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 The difference between Lansing and Detroit is HUGE. Obviously the lakes play a factor, but Muskegon was pretty on par with Lansing and its right next to the lake as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Wow neat! That really puts into perspective the effect of warm lake erie on Cleve temps early on.I find it amazing sometimes the temp spread in Winter just across the lake in Wisconsin. Some damn cold nights over there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 October 13th is the date for KBTL while nw side of town it is October 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 23, 2013 Author Share Posted August 23, 2013 October 13th is the date for KBTL while nw side of town it is October 3rd. That's a crazy difference within a county! In Cook County, IL though there is a few weeks difference also between the lakeshore where Alek is and the northwest corner of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 That's a crazy difference within a county! In Cook County, IL though there is a weeks difference also between the lakeshore where Alek is and the northwest corner of the county. The industrial zone/park is just next to the airport ( to the west/wnw ) and a bit closer to downtown while the NW side of town station has not much beyond it to the north or west and a bit further away from downtown. I suspect it is the same for a number of larger areas with the reporting stations in or near downtown/airports/lots of development/industrial zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Great way to put things in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 I actually love that the first frost comes a bit later around here. It gives the foliage some more time to show off the beautiful colors! Frosts tend to nip the leaves...so the later the frost, the longer the color season (as long as there is no wind). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 The difference between Lansing and Detroit is HUGE. Obviously the lakes play a factor, but Muskegon was pretty on par with Lansing and its right next to the lake as well. UHI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 26, 2013 Author Share Posted August 26, 2013 UHI's definitely play a role. Look at MSP vs. RST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 UHI? Urban Heat Island----Corrections welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 UHI's definitely play a role. Look at MSP vs. RST. DTW is about 1.5F warmer annually than sites just outside the airport. Its enough to change this summer from the 30-40th warmest to 50th warmest. I would never have been able to get these figures without the wunderground network... Thankfully most sites have elevations listed, so the comparison is fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 14, 2013 Author Share Posted September 14, 2013 I think the only location that I had listed that made 32° last night was YSB. Pretty close with GLR and SAW. Will be factoring in the 2013 dates as we get into frost season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 For Michigan sites, this is a great guide. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dtx/web/FrostFreeze.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 36 is considered the temp for frost, 32 for freeze and 28 for hard freeze. I'm not sure if that is NWS official or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 36 is considered the temp for frost, 32 for freeze and 28 for hard freeze. I'm not sure if that is NWS official or not. I'm not sure about the frost temp, those are the correct temps for freezes. Just for reference, here are the MRCC maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 The only period of the entire year where Herman, MI has less than a 10% chance at frost is July 29th through August 3rd. That's the most frost prone spot in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 Preliminary list of 32° low for this Autumn. Quite a few places have recorded at least 32° already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Interesting that the west side of Michigan still hasn't hit 32° while the east side has. Many place should reach 32° tonight that haven't already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 Interesting that the west side of Michigan still hasn't hit 32° while the east side has. Many place should reach 32° tonight that haven't already. And we need Ohio locations to hit 32° as well. I think by the weekend every station should be checked off the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 And we need Ohio locations to hit 32° as well. I think by the weekend every station should be checked off the list. I've already had my first inch of snow but am waiting for the first freeze! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 Only waiting for 4 more locations on the list to sink to 32°. MKG, CLE, BUF, ERI. Would be cool if those locations could get a freeze before November 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Must have cleared out just east of here at GRR because last night was the warmest of the last three and GRR hit 31°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Only waiting for 4 more locations on the list to sink to 32°. MKG, CLE, BUF, ERI. Would be cool if those locations could get a freeze before November 1st. All the Lake Erie stations hit freezing last night (CLE, ERI, and BUF). BUF actually hit freezing at 12:59 am EDT so technically that counts as yesterday for record keeping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 29, 2013 Author Share Posted October 29, 2013 All the Lake Erie stations hit freezing last night (CLE, ERI, and BUF). BUF actually hit freezing at 12:59 am EDT so technically that counts as yesterday for record keeping. Thanks! I'll note that in the list. Gotta double check MKG now. Edit: MKG the last lagging behind. Only 34° so far. If they fail to hit freezing by Thursday, they will be the only location in the list to first hit 32° in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 I find this stat particularly interesting. Despite running +0.8F on the month to date, and the known UHI, DTW has now had 6 days with a min AOB 32F. October normal is 2.7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 still waiting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 still waiting.... 27th or 29th didnt hit 32? ORD and MDW both hit 29F this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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