HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 Sharknado/Landphoon/Derecho combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 This is equivalent to having a thread for a d13 blizzard and expecting it to be taken seriously because DT postulates on a blog. Agreed to the point to where I'm naked!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 You mean to tell me that this thread isn't a joke? That we are going to model watch for the possibility of a derecho? My goodness. I knew the weather was boring around these parts, but I didn't realize it was this boring. Can only imagine what would happen if the 344 hr GFS showed a landfall major Hurricane in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 I still favor SW of SNE. 12z GFS severe analog, based off of the overall pattern match (not just 500mb): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 You mean to tell me that this thread isn't a joke? That we are going to model watch for the possibility of a derecho? My goodness. I knew the weather was boring around these parts, but I didn't realize it was this boring. Can only imagine what would happen if the 344 hr GFS showed a landfall major Hurricane in SNE. Something like this? I'm naked!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 Something like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 The Euro would argue for some svr potential on Wednesday I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2013 Author Share Posted August 24, 2013 Yeah they've flipped.. Euro has a big outbreak for us..while GFS has nothing.. Euro ens have consistently shown this..so not surprising op caught on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 Yeah they've flipped.. Euro has a big outbreak for us..while GFS has nothing.. Euro ens have consistently shown this..so not surprising op caught onCan you show me where the ensembles show this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2013 Author Share Posted August 24, 2013 Can you show me where the ensembles show this? On DT's video he clearly illustrated it..Please see that. Also please answer text from last nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 Yeah they've flipped.. Euro has a big outbreak for us..while GFS has nothing.. Euro ens have consistently shown this..so not surprising op caught on Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 On DT's video he clearly illustrated it..Please see that. Also please answer text from last nite Well after you trashed me on saying MCS potential somewhere over the northeast, and now you are spanking it to DT videos....not sure I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 no EML means no derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 has Derecho 2013 formed yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 The Euro does have a Wednesday severe threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 The Euro does have a Wednesday severe threat I can only see the 12 HR increments but looking at 12z Wednesday the Euro does show strong 700 and 500mb winds just to the west of southern New England along with a pretty strong LLJ...does shear increase here throughout the afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 I can only see the 12 HR increments but looking at 12z Wednesday the Euro does show strong 700 and 500mb winds just to the west of southern New England along with a pretty strong LLJ...does shear increase here throughout the afternoon?Also, looking those 850mb winds, you'd have to imagine they increase to 45-50kt, considering they're maxing at near 40kt at 96hr and increase to 55kt by 120hr east of SNE. Looks like good directional shear with sfc winds SW ahead of low pressure and the NW flow aloft. The precip panels also blow up, with what's most likely an MCS feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Also, looking those 850mb winds, you'd have to imagine they increase to 45-50kt, considering they're maxing at near 40kt at 96hr and increase to 55kt by 120hr east of SNE. Looks like good directional shear with sfc winds SW ahead of low pressure and the NW flow aloft. The precip panels also blow up, with what's most likely an MCS feature. It will be interesting watching the models handle this over the next few days b/c the GFS is pretty meh on any potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 It will be interesting watching the models handle this over the next few days b/c the GFS is pretty meh on any potentialReminds me of winter storm, where the GFS has it, drops it and then comes back into play last minute. We'll see...the NAM is almost in range, but expect to see some wacked out progs for 60-84hr, as usual. 6z DGEX was showing a potent MCS, FWIW, which isn't much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Reminds me of winter storm, where the GFS has it, drops it and then comes back into play last minute. We'll see...the NAM is almost in range, but expect to see some wacked out progs for 60-84hr, as usual. 6z DGEX was showing a potent MCS, FWIW, which isn't much.As expected, lol, here's the NAM fantasy for Wednesday morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Ryan, Could you change the title of the thread to make this reflective of Wednesday's severe possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Still hints of a threat, although the NAM/GFS are not overly impressive right now. The NAM was looking nuts overnight, but came back to reality by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 While it may not be a "derecho" per se, there is ongoing MCS activity over Ontario, pressing SEward as we study models for later on. May not get here, sure, but looking that satellite presentation of that activity, in motion, and knowing the synoptic canvas, the thing already hearkens to this pattern being more rife with potential in that regard. May want to consider that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 While it may not be a "derecho" per se, there is ongoing MCS activity over Ontario, pressing SEward as we study models for later on. May not get here, sure, but looking that satellite presentation of that activity, in motion, and knowing the synoptic canvas, the thing already hearkens to this pattern being more rife with potential in that regard. May want to consider that. Looks like it's right on the edge of the stronger jet dynamics and higher theta-e air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2013 Author Share Posted August 25, 2013 Ryan, Could you change the title of the thread to make this reflective of Wednesday's severe possibility. Why the threat of a big outbreak in New England is very real . Euro is ominous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Why the threat of a big outbreak in New England is very real . Euro is ominous I'm cowering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Why the threat of a big outbreak in New England is very real . Euro is ominous It's not derecho material Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 25, 2013 Author Share Posted August 25, 2013 It's not derecho materialItcertainly is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Itcertainly is Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Itcertainly is You are the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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