andyhb Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Considering we are about a month out now from the start of Fall (less than that meteorologically), I figured I'd start this. What do you think will be in store? Early snows, elevated severe weather potential, or a continuation of zzzzzzz™? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 I haven't been on all summer, but with the average temps now making their decline towards the colder seasons, I am back! I will say this about fall. The first half of August was quite chilly here, and has really boosted some fall color change around here. Sure, stressed trees change early every year...but this is more than just those. My opinion for the fall goes back to what seems to be a common trend during this century: warmer falls. Perhaps this fall will be colder than normal, but that seems a rarity these days, atleast here in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 Good to see you back Blackrock. Average highs start dropping a degree every 3 days in the first half of September here and every 2 days after that. I think a lot of members here will see early frosts. After this warm up is done I think will go back to a similar pattern with a trough in the Great Lakes. The atmosphere doesn't flip on a dime and I think it will be back in some form towards the 2nd week of September. I think September will be near average though in terms of temperatures. Then a slightly cooler October (and wet) and a chilly November with decent early snows for a lot of areas of this sub forum. - even before Thanksgiving north of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 It would be welcomed if the region could have a active & cooler than normal fall. A few sub 60 days in late Sep would be amazing. Probably a little too much ask for given the last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 The whole region is looking more like fall every week or so. The intense green of a few weeks ago is fading into the more yellow hue. Some of the tress are stressed but the many tips are turning from the cold mornings as of late. It would be rare but a more normal or colder fall would be much welcomed. Its hard to think but in less than 60 days the leaves will be gone for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 It would be welcomed if the region could have a active & cooler than normal fall. A few sub 60 days in late Sep would be amazing. Probably a little too much ask for given the last decade. You know you want a 2005 September. Nov. 2005 is the last time Milwaukee had 2 snowfalls over an inch going back to 1999.. Following winter sucked, but nothing new of the 8 previous pretty meh winters. Think our biggest November snow storm since 1996-1997 has been 2.2" Brutal place to live if you love early snows during the most boring season of the yr, but I guess unless you live a lot farther to the north than most of us do - climo is just not there for a snow junkie until later in nov and in to dec. Last sept we had 4 days with highs in the 50's between the 18th and 23rd. 2011 had 18 days in the 60's with 15 being 65 and under. 2010 was loaded pretty good with 60's also and a few 50's. AVG high here doesn't drop below 70 until September 24th so we've been doing pretty well the last 3 Septembers if you like a taste of early mid fall temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 It would be welcomed if the region could have a active & cooler than normal fall. A few sub 60 days in late Sep would be amazing. Probably a little too much ask for given the last decade. Last Sept came in at -0.1 at LAN. The last week was pretty nice. DY MAX MIN AVG DEP =================== 18 65 44 55 -6 19 66 41 54 -7 20 69 50 60 0 21 68 44 56 -4 22 60 43 52 -7 23 57 41 49 -10 24 62 40 51 -8 25 69 48 59 1 26 70 47 59 1 27 65 45 55 -2 28 69 45 57 0 29 73 41 57 1 30 65 44 55 -1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 I got my garden in late this year so a warmer start to fall would be good. Other than that I don't care if it is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 You know you want a 2005 September. Nov. 2005 is the last time Milwaukee had 2 snowfalls over an inch going back to 1999.. Following winter sucked, but nothing new of the 8 previous pretty meh winters. Think our biggest November snow storm since 1996-1997 has been 2.2" Brutal place to live if you love early snows during the most boring season of the yr, but I guess unless you live a lot farther to the north than most of us do - climo is just not there for a snow junkie until later in nov and in to dec. Last sept we had 4 days with highs in the 50's between the 18th and 23rd. 2011 had 18 days in the 60's with 15 being 65 and under. 2010 was loaded pretty good with 60's also and a few 50's. AVG high here doesn't drop below 70 until September 24th so we've been doing pretty well the last 3 Septembers if you like a taste of early mid fall temps. November 2004 was the best one for snow in recent memory. 6.5" of snow here that month. 2.5" of snow on Thanksgiving morning at then 4.0" on the 30th. As of late November has lacked in snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 Good to see you back Blackrock. Average highs start dropping a degree every 3 days in the first half of September here and every 2 days after that. I think a lot of members here will see early frosts. After this warm up is done I think will go back to a similar pattern with a trough in the Great Lakes. The atmosphere doesn't flip on a dime and I think it will be back in some form towards the 2nd week of September. I think September will be near average though in terms of temperatures. Then a slightly cooler October (and wet) and a chilly November with decent early snows for a lot of areas of this sub forum. - even before Thanksgiving north of I-80. Thanks, Geos. I'm looking forward to chatting the next 7 months. I'm not sure about November snows in the Western Michigan area. I do know that there has been NONE in the time I have lived here (4 Novembers). Hopefully this fall will change things! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 November 2004 was the best one for snow in recent memory. 6.5" of snow here that month. 2.5" of snow on Thanksgiving morning at then 4.0" on the 30th. As of late November has lacked in snowfall. I loved that T-Giving storm.... I'm going to dig up some old pics I took from that one, but it was memorable. That storm set a string of cold T-Givings in progress, we actually had more white t-givings than Xmases during a 5 year period. We had 6 inches from the T-giving deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 I loved that T-Giving storm.... I'm going to dig up some old pics I took from that one, but it was memorable. That storm set a string of cold T-Givings in progress, we actually had more white t-givings than Xmases during a 5 year period. We had 6 inches from the T-giving deal. That's pretty good for a November storm. I might have some pictures of November events somewhere around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 I'll take another November 1998 Witch event. Probably the most impressive gradient wind event I have seen for this area. 55-70mph wind gusts on a consistent basis from late morning into mid evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 I loved that T-Giving storm.... I'm going to dig up some old pics I took from that one, but it was memorable. That storm set a string of cold T-Givings in progress, we actually had more white t-givings than Xmases during a 5 year period. We had 6 inches from the T-giving deal. That was memorable for me as well, it was the first time I drove in snow, and the entire US-127/I-69 corridors were a nightmare that evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 I'll take another November 1998 Witch event. Probably the most impressive gradient wind event I have seen for this area. 55-70mph wind gusts on a consistent basis from late morning into mid evening. That storm set various barometric pressure records. I think it broke the all-time record for the state of Minnesota which was later broken by the Octobomb. Even with a higher central pressure, the wind event in 1998 was probably more impressive than the Octobomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 The CFS October 1-14th outlook. Looks like a wide Midwest trough will set up residence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 CFSv1 0- -4° over most of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 CFSv2 0- -4° over most of the subforum. This doesn't match the image from the CPC's page of the CFSv2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 O darn, that's CFSv1. Fixed, Stebo. That will change as we get closer to October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 O darn, that's CFSv1. Fixed, Stebo. That will change as we get closer to October. Yeah I would be leery of using CFSv1, it was replaced for a reason, being that it wasn't really a good model. I mean it is ok for comparison sake, but I don't think it holds much water. CFSv2 has done decently well this year thusfar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 New CFSv2 showing a major -NAO and blocking next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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