2017 Solar Eclipse

[Track]

I'm making some plans to try to catch the total solar eclipse on August 21, 2017.  The following map shows the path of totality and I'm trying to figure out where on that path would be the best bet to have clear weather?

 

http://xjubier.free.fr/en/site_pages/solar_eclipses/TSE_2017_GoogleMapFull.html?Lat=37&Lng=-89&Zoom=4&Map=G_NORMAL_MAP

 

Is there anywhere I can look up statistical data for cloud cover by month for a geographic location?  Thanks for any input!

[Roger Smith]

I was looking at this one too, figure the best odds would be south-central Idaho. For one thing, the eclipse there is late morning, raising your odds of clear skies. Further east you look along the track, I believe you'll find both lower percentages of clear skies and a later time of day further decreasing your chances. About a week before the event you would probably start to get more reliable estimates from the actual weather pattern. My guess is that percentage frequency of clear skies along that track range from 45 to 70 per cent and the max would be in eastern Oregon, south-central Idaho and central Wyoming. The percentages probably drop slowly further east. But it all depends on the pattern of the actual date, those background frequencies are not so different.

[wolfpackmet]

I was thinking east Oregon, the arid location on the lee side of the Cascades.  August 21 is still the dry season (about 3-7 weeks before the first wet storm typically).  You could make a trip out of Crater Lake National Park, Eugene or even Portland.

[Derecho!]

I had been thinking about this a few years ago.

 

The key is mobility - don't lock yourself into a location. Either be prepared to spend the money to buy last-minute plane tickets, or set yourself up a good place where you can drive a long distance the previous day.

 

That said, I have a brother in Lewiston ID and based on the recommendations here maybe I will try to visit him and be prepared to drive if necessary.

[MN Transplant]

Nebraska might be good also.  Generally dry Plains weather, and very easy to go a long distance in a hurry.

[MN Transplant]

http://www.eclipse2017.org/2017/weather/2017_clouds.htm

 

 

 

Not a true cloud cover resource, but the solar power folks also keep a good handle on this data.

 

 

http://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar.html

[icebreaker5221]

http://www.eclipse2017.org/2017/weather/2017_clouds.htm

 

 

Those calculations in the table don't match the graph at all.  I see he computed the mean cloud amount in the column 'mean' as (overcast)+0.4375*(broken)+0.15625*(scattered), which shows the only stations with less than 30% cloud cover are in OR, ID, WY, and NE, as expected.  However, the line graph shows St. Louis, MO as less cloudy than Pendleton, OR, which I guarantee you is not the case in Aug whether you go by total sunshine hours, total incoming shortwave radiation, or any other metric you choose, and is also in stark contrast with the graph directly below it!  Unfortunately, the map you posted appears to agree with the incorrect graph and not the chart. 

[Hoosier]

I really want to see this one. Good news for anyone who misses it: there's another total solar eclipse that will be visible in the US in 2024.

[MN Transplant]

Those calculations in the table don't match the graph at all.  I see he computed the mean cloud amount in the column 'mean' as (overcast)+0.4375*(broken)+0.15625*(scattered), which shows the only stations with less than 30% cloud cover are in OR, ID, WY, and NE, as expected.  However, the line graph shows St. Louis, MO as less cloudy than Pendleton, OR, which I guarantee you is not the case in Aug whether you go by total sunshine hours, total incoming shortwave radiation, or any other metric you choose, and is also in stark contrast with the graph directly below it!  Unfortunately, the map you posted appears to agree with the incorrect graph and not the chart. 

 

There is no way that top graph is not overly influenced by the monsoon.  The calculations would be interesting.  I like the table because it also has time-of-day, which is important.  Again, knowing exactly where he is drawing the numbers from would improve any sense of reliability.

[Roger Smith]

The time of day factor definitely swings the probability of clear skies west. The total phase occurs at about 10:15 PDT on the Oregon coast and changes from 10:30 PDT to 11:30 MDT near the Oregon-Idaho border. I've just come back from holiday time in a similar climate zone in south-central B.C. and the clearest time of day was just about then, before noon. The skies tend to become partly to mostly cloudy quite frequently after 3 p.m. with debris of mountain showers if not more organized cloud, and sometimes this persists through a good portion of the overnight, but it's quite normal to have clear skies at some point in the mornings. Unless the models were showing something really atypical a week or so in advance, I would be assuming that one could reach the perfect viewing location from an overnight base near Boise ID given the interstate network, I-84 runs northwest through the totality zone towards Pendleton OR and then also from Boise, it runs east to give quick access to north-south roads in eastern Idaho if that looked better. The Oregon coast might also be okay although it's fog-prone at all times during the summer, if the flow predicted on reliable models looked to be east to southeast then I might head there with options to move a few miles inland, but that situation would likely be clear further east too.

 

I saw the total eclipse of March 1970 in Virginia Beach and would recommend the experience highly, it is hundreds of times more dramatic than you might imagine. A dramatic natural setting enhances the experience too.

[Mallow]

Roger: other than in the mountains during certain flow regimes, afternoon clouds are pretty uncommon anywhere in Oregon in August. Morning clouds are decently frequent along the coast and the Columbia River, but further south in the valley, clear or partly cloudy skies usually rule the day from sunrise to sunset. And of course, central and eastern Oregon are almost always clear, except in the relatively rare occasions when monsoonal moisture makes its way into Oregon and Washington along the Cascade crest and points east (usually). And then, as you mentioned, clouds are more common in the afternoon. Still, maybe on average once every month or so, you'll get remnants of the previous day's afternoon thunderstorms that linger into the following morning.

[phil882]

Considering the solar eclipse goes right through my hometown (Greenville, SC) I'm definitely not going to miss it! 

[Geos]

Cool! Been awhile since I've seen a solar eclipse. If I were to go see it, I would head to central MO. Columbia looks directly in line for it.

[a5ehren]

Considering I live in Atlanta, I'll probably just drive up 85 and get as close to that central blue line as possible (Exit 27 in SC looks really good, IMO). Could also audible to the far NE GA mountains, the stretch of 75 in TN, or even Nashville if local weather was going to be a problem there.

[wxdude64]

Well, I know one of the weeks I'll be taking vacation in 2017 is now.

[ice1972]

Was just talking to my wife and a 2017 vacation somewhere in the path of totality is in the books....details TBD

Anyway.....this thread sparked my inner astronomer and I found thus really tremendous page on NASA website regarding the periocity and recurrence of solar eclipses....the Saros Cycle.....

http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEsaros/SEsaros.html

Basically there's many cycles under way at any moment in time....each lasts 1200 to 1300 years and each produces eclipses with similar geometry.....each cycle begins with partial eclipses at either the North Pole region or South Pole region.....each successive eclipse of the cycle (18 yrs) shifts toward the opposite pole from where it began approximately 300 km and is also displaced to the west by 1/3 of an earth rotation....this occurs until finally the eclipse stripes have traversed to the other pole and eventually off the surface of the earth....as one Saros cycle ends a new one begins....really fascinating stuff....since there are many Saros Cycles going at any moment in time you get 2 to 5 total eclipses every year....

The website also has great links to maps showing all the various paths....pretty rare to get a total eclipse going over your location....the last one to go over the San Francisco Bay Area - where i grew up - was 340 yrs before I was born....1632...lol